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Quick analysis of Cong manifesto: First though, politically good to say that we will promise only what we can deliver. But this may at best apply to NYAY - Rs 6000 pm scheme. But only 20% of 20% to be delivered each year. So first year only 4% will be covered.
First year NYAY cost can be covered fully by converting Modi's PM Kisna Samman which costs the same - Rs 75,000 crore. Next year it can be done if some other social security schemes scrapped - example NREGA (another Rs 60000 cr). By 3rd year fisc should be able to pay another 75k
Where the numbers dont add up is the other promises: to raise education budget to 6% of GDP, to raise helath spending, to increase defence spending. If you increase spending in all areas, then the math will not add up.
Rahul talked of not lying, but he uttered several lies of his own. First, he said that Rs 20000 cr paid to Anil Ambani. Very little has actually flowed to Ambani in the offset clause with Dassault. Still to be seen how much he will get
Rahul talked of Mallya, Nirav, etc, people Modi allegedly benefited. But failed to mention that cronyism peaked under UPA-2, where one industrialist notably said "Congess to apni dukaan hai." Gas price proposed under UPA would have benefited Ambani most. $8 per mmbtu vs $3.72 now
Rahul said startups will require no permissions for three years. Self-certification is a good idea, but permissions are required for starting a polluting industry, getting power, offices, building permits. He cant give freedom from Delhi when these laws are administered by states
Rahul talked of the Gabbar Singh Tax and bringing fuel under GST. Well, he won't be able to deliver on this promise as states make a lot of money from petro-taxes. And if fuel is under GST, it will have a huge cess attached - which means one more GST complication, not simplicity
Rahul claimed that Modi's Ayushman Bharat takes taxpayer money and gives it to big business which provides the insurance. But isn't this exactly what UPA's Right to Education does - take money from the taxpayer and give it to private sector educational institutions? Hypocrisy?
On Kashmir, Rahul talked about removing sedition law and AFSPA. Also new interlocutors will be appointed. Wonder what happened to report of previous 3 interlocuters? How many more middlemen will be required to bring peace to the valley? And will army agree to removal of AFSPA?
Rahul talked of transparent defence procurement policies. This claim has no credibility when UPA1 and UPA2 were steeped in multiple corruption scandals, including Agusta Westland. Sonia's pal Quattrochi was middleman in Bofors, allowed him to take his money and run in UPA1
Rahul talked about jobs he would create, including 22 lakh govt jobs that represent unfilled vacancies. But he failed to say that centre and states are keeping vacancies unfilled because of fiscal space taken up by farm loan waivers (200000 cr in five years), among other freebies
Put simply, Rahul Gandhi's claims carry no credibility, and his tall claim that he will only promise what he can deliver is itself an exercise in obfuscation. There is no reason to believe he can deliver.
Two more points: Rahul claimed he was contesting from Wayanad as there was a demand and also because the south felt excluded in some ways. One wonders whether a Rahul Gandhi being elected from Wayanad signifies southern inclusion, when the south anyway sends 130 MPs to the LS
Rahul's presser confirms one truth: media asks only softball questions of the Gandhis. There was no question on the National Herald case or Agusta Westland or any of the UPA era scams. Or dynasty politics. Just lollies that allowed the Gandhi scion to hit the ball out of the park
