Thread by @jitengajaria

Very interesting pattern seen again in Mumbai in 6 LS seats. Same pattern was 1st observed in 2014. The middle class Hindus voting big. Let's take 2 seats as examples

North East - BJP vs NCP.
South Central SS vs Cong.

North East saw 56% while South Central saw 55%

Mumbai North East saw 56% an increase of 3%. This LS has 6 segments
Mulund - BJP fort. Gujju, Marathi & Sikh voters.
Bhandup - A Sena fort but also NCP candidate's home Turf. Marathi belt
Vikhroli - A Sena stronghold. Marathi + Dalit vote. RPI influence

Ghatkopar W - A SS-BJP stronghold. Voters mainly Marathi, Gujarati with pockets of Muslim votes too.
Ghatkopar E - A BJP fort. Majorly Gujju belt with Marathi & Dalit pockets
Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar - Predominantly Muslim belt. Votes big against BJP

Yesterday, the highest voting happened in Mulund & Ghatkopar assembly segments (both 60+). While this points at big turnout of BJP supporters, breaking it further at Ward level, you realise it IS a Modi wave. His backers came out in hordes to see him win.

On other hand, Mankhurd -Shivajinagar where 75% of votes go against BJP, the turnout was meagre 45%. This possibly shows that Muslims are possibly not as angry with govt as made out to be or they still dont wish to vote for NÇP-Cong

The moderate voting in other 3 segments show that people did not buy Raj Thackeray's antics. Had he succeded, voting in Bhandup, Vikhroli & Ghatkopar W would have gone up big.

Same seen in Mumbai South Central too.

South Central saw 55% +2% from 2014.

The assembly breakup

Mahim Dadar - Sena stronghold. Predominantly Marathi with Muslim pocket
Wadala - A mix bag. Marathi, Gujarati, Parsi with some Muslim pocket
Dharavi - Cong fort. Home turf of Cong candidate. Dalit, Muslim, Tamil.

Sion Koliwada - BJP, Cong, SS equally strong. Tamil, Marathi, Punjabi, Sikh voters
Chembur - A BJP SS fort with a few strong Congress wards. Marathi, Sindhi, Dalit voters hold the key.
Anushakti Nagar - Always a fiercely fought area. Marathi & Muslim dominant.

If we see turnout yesterday, Chembur & Mahim Dadar recorded highest. To breakdown at ward level, ward 154 which has diamond garden, Msitri Park, Borla Soc, Camp, Navjivan, Basant Park saw 62% voting. High turnout in BJP bastion

In Anushakti Nagar (Trombay), higher voting was seen in BARC Colonyn Panjrapol & around than Cheetah Camp which is a total Muslim area (Remember Mohd Afroze).

Similarly Dharavi saw just 44% voting which means Dalit + Muslim consolidation didnt hsppen.

So in a nutshell, If i have to summarise #MumbaiVotes

There is a Modi Wave and his support base is still strong.
Hindu consolidation & mobilisation far more thsn Muslim one
Dalit vote going to both.
Middle Class voting percentage increasing with every election.