Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #idlib

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The map of Syria
Turkish President #Erdogan will meet with his Russian counterpart on January 23 to discuss the future of the Syrian east and the city of Manbij. This comes after a telephone conversation between Erdogan and #Trump before yesterday.1/12
#Syria #Turkey #USA #Russia
With the scrutiny of the Turkish, American, Kurdish and Russian military movements in the Syrian east and its surroundings, it is now possible to develop a scenario that will be closest to what will be the map of the Syrian East.2/12
#Syria #Turkey #USA #Russia #Iran #Israel
In a secret visit to #Ankara a few days ago, a Syrian delegation led by Ahmed al-#Jarba, a leader of a military group of Arabs supported by the International Coalition and #Washington, arrived from the areas of #SDF.3/12
#Syria #Turkey #USA #Russia #Iran #Israel
Read 12 tweets
1. @POTUS @SecPompeo @AmbJohnBolton should all be charged with treason for allowing @RT_Erdogan @KremlinRussia_E and Iran to build another Sunni Caliphate in #Idlib. @Trump must be impeached ASAP or we are doomed. @SenateGOP like @LindseyGrahamSC & @foxandfriends are complicit.
2. If @TheDemocrats can't get their act together we need to primary the entire lot in 2020. @Trump is creating Al-Qaeda heaven in Syria because he takes orders from Putin & Erdogan. Remember this is who Donald Trump wants to decide if NYC gets attacked again. @NewYorkFBI @NYPDCT
3. The Turkish people are our ally. But @RT_Erdogan, who ordered the attack on peaceful US citizens in DC, is our enemy. He must be charged with war crimes for #Afrin ethnic cleansing & pillage with a Red Notice follow him, Akar and Fidan for life. @FBIWFO @WHNSC @USEmbassySyria
Read 3 tweets
Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+
No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ
Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.
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U.S. Policy of not talking to Assad & Syrian State is the primary reason for this seemingly confused, disjointed and unrealistic signals coming out of Washington.

It ought to be crystal clear to most capitals by now that #Syria 's leadership is going nowhere anytime soon ====>
2-By ignoring the irrefutable evidence on the ground, the U.S. is having to invent ways to deal with #Syria while avoiding to recognize the clear winner of the 7-year old conflict. Only credible path forward is for @realDonaldTrump to encourage the Kurds to talk to Damascus
3-As abhorrent as that may seem to many in Western capitals, the fact is that key regional capitals already realized the inevitable. The solution to #Syria can only come when @realDonaldTrump tells the kurds that the US cannot stay in their region indefinitely
Read 5 tweets
I can only see positiveness in the expansion of al-Qaeda in #Syria. The more cities and villages it controls, the faster it will lose.

#AQ in Syria is trying to earn the heart and minds of the locals but it is trying to full up their pockets. This group has learned nothing.
Today I am very confident & much more positive that #Turkey will not occupy north of #Syria and will not stay in the territory it occupies today for ever.

@RT_Erdogan is confirming his strategic relationship with #Russia & #Iran is more precious than #USA
#AQ was planning long ago to expand its control. #Turkey rejected Joulani's wishes for very long. By accepting or closing an eye on the ex-#ISIS Emir, i.e. Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, #Turkey has found the best way to liberate itself from al-Qaeda's burden.
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#SRO - ANALYSIS - With the ammount of forces being driven toward Greater #Idlib this night, clearly showing #Turkey has given green light for this move (it never happened until now), the best "winner" of the situation is the Northern Federation - #Rojava #SDF coalition (1).
#SRO - ANALYSIS - The most #Turkey proxies to be occupied in N-#Idlib | W-#Aleppo in front of the recent #HTS activities, the most of #SDF to breathe for coming weeks, far from the rising tensions and expected large offensive to be launched on Tal Abyad and Serekanye (2).
#SRO - ANALYSIS - So why #Turkey now completely turning tables ? #HTS presence and power was well known. But problem isn't #HTS for #Turkey, it's #Astana process. How to exist on international stage if you can't play your part (#Idlib was Turkey responsability) seriously ? (3)
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Hay'yan, Anadan & Haritan under Jihadists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the ex #ISIS officer, the ex-al Qaeda in the Levant and the actual leader of a large number of foreign fighters.

Joulani is taking position opposite #SAA.

google.com/maps/place/Hra…
Rural and the city of #Idlib, the rural area of #idlib, #Aleppo & #Hama are under Jihadists control. Is it time for the Syrian army, supported by #Russia to stop the jihadists advance if #Turkey is incapable of doing the job it has promised at #Astana?

#Turkey is embarrassed by Jihadists overwhelming control of most of the #Astana area of control. Joulani is forcing his place on #Ankara unless the Turkish army moves in to defeat him, or to steps aside and allows the #Syrian army to do the job.
Read 6 tweets
#Syria: another round of fighting has erupted in the greater #Idlib region as #HTS jihadists have captured the town of Darat Izza.

National Liberation Front (#FSA) rebels are mobilizing across the region for a counter attack
#Syria: the National Liberation Front (#FSA) has announced the start of military operations against #HTS jihadists in response to the capture of Darat Izza.

War in the greater #Idlib region is a fact.
#Syria: after several days of fighting Nour al-Din al-Zinki rebels have been crushed in western #Aleppo with #HTS jihadists seizing Darat al-Izzah, Anjarah, Khan al-Assal and Deir Simeon
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With 2018 in it's last moments, a new stage of the Syrian war have started & the end of the war is aproaching as time passes. 2018 has been another important year with many political & military developments: (1)
#AbuDhuhur Op (26/12/2017 - 9/2/2018) : as a continuation of the operation (started on October 2017) #SAA began huge offensive from many axis against Rebels & #ISIS in #Hama, #Aleppo & #Idlib provinces. The result of operation was the liberation of 1/3 of "Greater #Idlib" (2)
With W. shore of #Euphrates river secured by #SAA on December 2017, #SDF continued securing the E. one against #ISIS . Between 3/1/2018-22/2/2018 troops secured entire Shu'aytat region. However, a new development N.W. #Syria will provoke the delay of #CizireStorm some months: (3)
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Syrian proxies (Euphrates Shield and co.) will return to #Idllib to fight among themselves, desperate that even #Turkey gave up on them & their "dream to have oil, gas & resources in an annexed 43000 sq km area" is vanished

Many IDP in #Idlib will find their way back to gov area
The #Kurds #SDF will have to drop their title because there is no more need for it, like the Turkish-proxies "Euphrates shield".

#YPG were disregarded by #USA
Jihadists and rebels will soon feel the same, disregarded by #Turkey
#ISIS will be attacked (no more IUS protection)
It will take several months for the #Syrian army and its allies to re-organise themselves and regain the area occupied by the #USA after their withdrawal.

That would take us to the Spring-Summer time to knock at the doors of #Idlib
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2) What to know about Idlib from SYRIANS
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
3) 08/28/18 US Pushing The Gambit In Syria: Something Big Is Coming As Officials Ramp Up Threats
zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-2…
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If true, this explains why the Syrian withdrawal is going to be a fast one. Erdogan likely credibly signaled to intervene in the east of Euphrates, and most likely agreed to *something* in return. What something, we’ll see soon. Spectrum is huge... +
Key question is US policy over Iranian presence in Syria. If the intent is [still] to degrade such presence, Erdogan may have agreed to “participate.” A more likely deal would involve Turkey assuming the chief “anti-ISIS” actor in Syria. Still, more likely, but not very likely..+
What about YPG? Turkey might have given assurances that it will not go after YPG, but once the US leaves, nothing stops Ankara. Well, nothing other than Russia. It is likely that YPG will be compelled to make a deal with Assad regime. Eventually. Why?... +
Read 9 tweets
Thread on #Syria Following @realDonaldTrump Withdrawal Decision

Content Is Based On Conversations with Damascus And Other Very Well Informed Sources

Current situation is v fluid. White House’s decision caught everyone in the region off guard and unprepared. Game on mode now =>
2-Important to first establish that no substantive agreements have taken place between Damascus and Kurdish leaders since yesterday's surprise decision. Yes, there are channels of communication but those have existed for a long time and there is nothing new as of now
3-Important to also state the obvious & confirm that Damascus is keen to reach a deal with Kurdish leaders ahead of any potential Turkish move. The probability that Damascus reaches an understanding with Kurdish leadership is still far higher than a Damascus/Ankara rapprochement
Read 18 tweets
Thread: Olive Oil as victim of #Syria’s War Economy

In spite of very favorable crop for olives that is usually grown in Kurdish areas around Afrin & North, #Aleppo residents are having to pay exorbitant retail prices for Syrian Olive oil as it gets shipped to #Turkey instead =>
2-Healthy harvest usually drives retail prices of Olive oil down. On the street of Afrin, a container of 16.5 Kg of olive oil currently sells for as little as SYP 13,000. #Aleppo (40 km away) residents however, are having to pay SYP 30,000 for the very same Container. Why? ==>
3-Armed groups in control of #Afrin are sending the finished Ollive oil to Turkey first. If any of the olive oil were to make to the residents of #Aleppo , the countless checkpoints along the 40km road collect enough fees to send prices of each container up by nearly
Read 11 tweets
Thread 👇triggered many questions:

1-How can Syrian leadership resume relations with #Saudi after its support of the Opp?

2-What about #Iran and will Tehran feel betrayed?

3-What about #Russia and how might this potential shift impact Turkish/Russian relations?

Answers ==>
2-On #Saudi : No question that Riyadh/Damascus rapprochement is difficult to foresee. Note that this shift is being led #UAE and not Saudi. Riyadh is expected to follow and yes, reluctantly. Damascus is just as easy about this given Saudi’s early support of the Opp. BUT ==>
3-When discussing Riyadh/Damascus, it’s critical to think about Qatari/Saudi schism. If forced to choose, who should Damascus side with? Answer: #Saudi . Why? #Qatar is ardent supporter of the Moslem Brotherhood (enemy of both Damascus & Riyadh). Doha is also still supporting Opp
Read 12 tweets
1-There is no consensus over fate of Idlib, 2-how exactly refugees will return, 3- whether regime should make political concessions, 4- what role Iran should play, 5- under what conditions should reconstruction funding be made. Here are my Answers => atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasou…
On 1- Yea, there is consensus over the fate of #Idlib. It is Syrian territory and participants spoke of need to ensure the country’s sovereignty. The current status quo is “temporary” therefore before the Syrian State reclaims the province hopefully through reconciliation ==>
On 2- Refugees can return to Syria at their choosing and anytime they are ready to reconcile with the State.
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#SRO | ARCHIVES | REGIME USING #BOSRA SHAM OLD RUINS AS MILITARY POSITIONS (March 2015) - Here is a very rare footage showing #Assad regime fighters using ruins in Old #Bosra city as a military camp inside the city from 2013 to 2015 :
ADD.: regime is well know to have used many archeological sites and historcal sites and ruins as military camps against many international laws (#Palmyra antiqual city [#Homs], Halabiyah castle [#Deir_Ezzor], #Harem citadel [#Idlib], #Aleppo citadel, #Homs citadel...).
ADD.: rebellion isn't also very clean on this subject : Qalaat al-Hosn (#Krak des Chevaliers) citadel [#Homs] or Apamea archeological site in Qalaat al-Mudiq [#Hama] were used as military strategic areas.
Read 4 tweets
#BREAKING
U.S. President Donald Trump has accepted the resignation of Nikki Haley as UN Ambassador.

My gut tells me an even bigger story will develop.

Rest assured #Iran's regime is terrified about who Trump/Pompeo will appoint as their new envoy.
axios.com/donald-trump-n…
#BREAKING
Amb. Nikki Haley spoke six months ago with President Donald Trump about the subject of resigning.
Will be staying at this post until the end of the year.
#BREAKING
Amb. Nikki Haley saying she will be campaigning for President Trump in 2020.
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1/ The #Saudi kidnapping of #Khashoggi reminds me of the kidnapping of #Hariri. It is meant to embarrass the other party, this time the gov of #Turkey, and provoke a diplomatic crisis. This is drug Cartel methods. It has no other goal than to assert power over the other.
2/ However, resorting to these methods to assert power in the political and international affairs sphere is always a sign of weakness and a sign of a power in crisis. #SaudiArabia
Read 216 tweets
My goodness: here's a prime example of policy advocacy on #Syria based either on ignorance, or [hopefully not] malign intent.

This is *riddled* with inaccuracy & misinformation.

@steelejourno says the West should force an opposition surrender in #Syria:

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@steelejourno #pt: @steelejourno says the US, UK & #France are “less honorable” in seeking to delay #Syria & #Russia’s “success” in regaining territory.

- They seek to enable a meaningful political process, in which there’s an opposition entity to sit at the table. I’d say that is honorable.
@steelejourno #pt: Here, @steelejourno says UK, US, France & "Gulf Arab monarchies” want ceasefires to protect rebels, not civilians.

In #Idlib, nothing could be further from the truth. None of those countries have *any* ties to rebel groups in #Idlib, who only equal ~0.5% of the population.
Read 10 tweets
In order to understand the #Idlib “de-escalation agreement”, one must understand the nature of relationship between #Putin & #Erdogan. Best to think of both leaders as being engaged right now. Not yet in a full marriage but neither is ready to walk away from each other just yet=>
2-Engagements don’t last forever. They either end in marriage or in walking away for good. This engagement phase will be tested over the coming months as Erdogan is expected to deliver on promises he made to his partner.
3-Naturally, Syrian Leadership is watching this engagement phase very closely. The base case scenario in Damascus appears to expect Erdogan to experience significant challenges in delivering on the promises he made to his partner. The coming few months will prove to be decisive
Read 3 tweets
Excellent write-up by J. Flores at FRN on Russia going along with western narrative over the IL-20 jet downed on Monday.
That French frigate Auvergne shot down the plane is a long shot, but #NATO wanting to sever #Russia#France ties is nothing new. fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-a…
Summing up the facts that led to, and followed, the downing of a Russian IL-20 plane.

1/ #NATO has strongly opposed the #Idlib campaign from #Syria & #Russia, warning a response to a chemical attack and then – to secure an escalation – on any attack. maps.southfront.org/now-u-s-threat…
2/ One #NATO member also strongly opposed to the #Idlib campaign, but for all different reasons: #Turkey reinforced its backed rebels in Idlib with support (after striking out the #HTS on its books) and weapons.
reuters.com/article/us-mid…
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Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Read 7 tweets
Couple of tweets re the Putin/Erdogan “demilitarisation” deal on #Idlib:
1. The Syrian regime army is depleted to the point of collapse. Without Russia/Hezbollah support they couldn’t advance against Turkish-backed and properly armed rebels thedailybeast.com/assads-final-o…
2. A lot of hyperbole around about Idlib being controlled by al-Qaeda. This BBC explainer is quite good on the balance of forces there: bbc.co.uk/news/world-454… But need to add that Turkey & HTS are not friends - Turkey wants this deal for leverage against HTS, who it can’t contol
Read 10 tweets

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