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THREAD (of my presentation at #UFGC19)
Where have we been the last 150 years?
Putting CO₂ into the atmosphere, first from land-use change, then coal, oil, & then gas. This has increased CO₂ in the atmosphere, led to a ~1°C temperature increase, & various climate impacts.
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Where have we been the last 150 years?
Putting CO₂ into the atmosphere, first from land-use change, then coal, oil, & then gas. This has increased CO₂ in the atmosphere, led to a ~1°C temperature increase, & various climate impacts.
1/
It is unlikely that the ~1°C warming can be reversed, & the Paris Agreement is about limiting future warming & impacts.
A strong interpretation of Paris, below 1.5°C, requires cutting CO₂ in half by 2030, hitting zero ~2050, & negative thereafter. Exceedingly ambitious.
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A strong interpretation of Paris, below 1.5°C, requires cutting CO₂ in half by 2030, hitting zero ~2050, & negative thereafter. Exceedingly ambitious.
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Bonus slide:
CO₂ removal has to start today, to reach the scales necessary to stay below 1.5°C. There are legitimate concerns about large-scale CO₂ removal, & less CO₂ removal requires more rapid short-term reductions & less non-CO₂ emissions.
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CO₂ removal has to start today, to reach the scales necessary to stay below 1.5°C. There are legitimate concerns about large-scale CO₂ removal, & less CO₂ removal requires more rapid short-term reductions & less non-CO₂ emissions.
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A weaker interpretation of Paris "well below 2°C" requires about a 25% reductions in global CO₂ emissions in the next decade, zero emissions ~2075, & thereafter negative. Again, CO₂ removal starts today to get to scale.
2°C is extremely ambitious, 1.5°C harder...
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2°C is extremely ambitious, 1.5°C harder...
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This presentation is about current progress...
Since 1990 CO₂ emissions have risen over 60%, despite continual progress in global climate policy (IPCC 1990, UNFCCC 1992, Kyoto 1997, Paris 2015, etc).
Likely emissions will rise in 2019, growing >1%/yr in the last decade.
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Since 1990 CO₂ emissions have risen over 60%, despite continual progress in global climate policy (IPCC 1990, UNFCCC 1992, Kyoto 1997, Paris 2015, etc).
Likely emissions will rise in 2019, growing >1%/yr in the last decade.
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Oil & gas continue to grow strongly globally, almost unchanged by energy & climate policies.
Coal has ups & downs, generally with China playing a key role. A little early to say coal has peaked, with a rise expected in 2018, but much lower future growth expected.
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Coal has ups & downs, generally with China playing a key role. A little early to say coal has peaked, with a rise expected in 2018, but much lower future growth expected.
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Coal, oil, & gas completely dominate primary energy production (renewables adjusted for primary energy). Solar & wind have had strong growth, & that needs to continue, but still way too slow to offset the continued growth in fossil energy.
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Growth is dominated by Asia. Rapid growth in solar & wind (China, India) is not sufficient to cover the growth in total energy use.
North America & Europe slowing down, as modest growth in solar & wind able to displace fossil energy with declining / stable total energy use.
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North America & Europe slowing down, as modest growth in solar & wind able to displace fossil energy with declining / stable total energy use.
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Emissions are rising because energy & climate policies are not strong enough to overcome growth in economic growth. Energy is used more effectively, solar & wind being deployed, but this is not a match for the onward march of the economy...
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At an Urban conference, so I must mention Non-State Actors...
According to the #EmissionsGapReport, Non-State Actors currently contribute about 0.5GtCO₂-e in reductions (of ~55GtCO₂ annual emissions), but in the best case could scale up to a huge 19GtCO₂-e. Potential...
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According to the #EmissionsGapReport, Non-State Actors currently contribute about 0.5GtCO₂-e in reductions (of ~55GtCO₂ annual emissions), but in the best case could scale up to a huge 19GtCO₂-e. Potential...
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And I finished with a few abstract messages. Basically, we are in this together, we need to help others (developing countries), need to understand the scale of the problem, & need to focus on the right goals.
Presentation: slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…
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Presentation: slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…
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I was fortunate to be introduced by @kristin_klima (my boss), & again used the #ClimateStripes by @ed_hawkins to illustrate the current temperature rise.
Thank you everyone for listening & the discussions afterwards!
12/12 (now get to work)
Thank you everyone for listening & the discussions afterwards!
12/12 (now get to work)
