Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

Kim Jong Un toured four defense plants in Kanggye province. I've pinned the locations. We should talk about what this tour might mean in terms of where things are headed with North Korea.

Also, you know how much I love North Korean machine plants! Let's take a look at each of the four in turn. Note that a lot of these plants have several names.
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/120666…

FIRST! The February 8 General Machine Factory. KCNA and Rodong Sinmun did not release any exterior shots of the this plant, but @mhanham and I located it several years ago: 40.631, 126.432
38north.org/2014/02/jlewis…

This plant makes missile launchers. KCNA and Rodong Sinmun reference prominently the October 2011 visit by Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un. North Korea didn't release pictures of that visit until much later because it was in preparation for a surprise.

Those red trucks would show up, painted camouflage, in an April 2012 parade carrying North Korea's first effort at building an ICBM, the KN-08. You can see why these visits might seem a little ominous to those of us with long memories.
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/503932…

Also, look at that map behind Kim Jong Un in 2019 and back when Kim Jong Il visited in 2008. Looks like its been updated.

NEXT! Kim visited the Kanggye General Tractor Plant which does not, in fact, make tractors. It is one of North Korea's most important defense plants. Again, KCNA did not release exterior images, but the location of this plant is well-known and pinned in @CurtisMelvin's database.

The location of the plant was accurately described by a North Korean defector, Ko Chong-song, who even drew a map. In 2013, North Korea inexplicably released an exterior image that allowed us at the time to confirm Ko's location: 40.961, 126.606.

Ko's book, Kim Jong-Il’s Secret Weapons Factories, (2001), is an open source goldmine. Sadly, it is in Japanese.
amazon.co.jp/%E9%87%91%E6%A…

NEXT! Kim visited the Jangjagang Machine Tool Factory. @wikimapia and others have long indicated the wrong location for this plant. @DaveSchmerler and I were skeptical of the reported location because it disagreed with Ko's account. But we needed a better image to be sure.

Now we have an exterior shot that allows us to confirm the Jangjagang Machine Tool Factory is precisely where Ko said it was: "in Sokcho-tong sandwiching the Pukch'on River between them, Yonp'ung-tong on one side, and the factory on the other." 40.987, 126.614 Also, bunnies.

According to Ko, "The basic products in this factory are precision parts that are put into various missiles, and much of the assembly is done here. ... Machinery of a very high level of precision is used, and most of it involves the missile field."

NEXT AND LAST! Kim visited the Kanggye General Precision Machine Plant. @DaveSchmerler and I had suspected this plant was located at the place wrongly pinned as the Jangjagang Machine Tool Factory. Now we have an external shot to confirm the location: 40.996, 126.613.

Again, the plant is exactly where Ko said it was: "also located in Sokcho-tong, Kanggye, but situated a small distance away, nestled among deep mountains." This plant, like the others, is involved in the production of munitions according to Ko.

What does it all mean? After spending 2018 talking about the economy, DPRK propaganda is shifting back to emphasizing defense industries. Moreover, in the past, sometimes these visits have been leading indicators of bad things to come. Not great news.

On the plus side, we nailed down the location of two more machine plants in Kanggye, answering some old riddles that bothered us for a while. There's that, at least.