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I'll take the opposite perspective on this with some caveats:
1) Just like how money is a commodity (and becoming more so everyday), knowledge is also being commoditized. You can learn about Lean Startup and best practices about starting a company online. This trend actually *decentralizes* the power of cities.
2) Elaborating on that pt, during the Renaissance, you saw power cities arise. Cities in Italy and France - art and math. In-person learnings and networks were powerful. But we don't live like that anymore.
3) these days, every startup gas heard about Lean Startup regardless of where they are starting. This is the power of the internet. Even networks are based on the internet these days.
4) Case in point, the my smartest customer acq friends are disbursed everywhere. They are not all in SF. And they all know each other and share secrets w each other about cust acq tips and tricks.
5) These new networks are based on like minded interests and smarts. The best marketers want to learn from the best marketers and share w only the best marketers. It happens that the internet is a good medium for finding such ppl.
6) For serendipity, in-person is always better. Running into someone in S Park in SF leads to random tidbits of info being exchanged. BUT what has also changed about SF is the cost of living. Being smart doesn't mean being cash rich. And to be in SF, you must be cash rich.
7) For this reason, the best founders are not all starting in SF because they are not all cash rich. As an early stage founder, you are not making the big bucks. Your typical 2br apt in SF will cost $4k per mo (rent) -> $50k per year (min $150k salary!!) Good luck!
8) In contrast, you can make almost half that in other cities like Boston or Toronto or SLC for the same lifestyle. And all these places have massive talent and ambition too.
9) So if you can learn from the internet, network online, and live in another city for half the cost at the earliest stages, why wouldn't you?
10) Today's top startups are a 7-10 year lagging indicator of what is yet to come. 7-10 yrs ago, ppl said there couldn't be remote unicorn companies because it hadn't been done before. That theory has been smashed.
11) 7-10 years ago SF was only incrementally more expensive. (10 years ago was the recession, remember?) Today, starting a company in SF and being majorly out of pocket on rent doesn't make sense unless you are already rich.
12) Now for some caveats - the folks who are rich coming out of unicorn companies like Uber, Airbnb, etc will start ambitious companies here. But only ppl w those backgrounds will be left here. ambitious ppl who are smart and don't come from unicorns won't start companies here.
13) more caveats - at this time, I don't believe knowledge on scaling companies has been open or commoditized yet. So companies that start outside SF that grow big will have offices here - later...
14) In order to take advantage of networks for hiring and information on scaling. Companies like Intercom and Talkdesk come to mind.
15) and guess what, SF will take credit for those companies 😂who move here and will call them "SF companies" even though they moved here *after* starting elsewhere. So if that's what we mean by all ambitious companies start in SF, then yes, I agree! LOL.
16) In conclusion, I think more and more, we will see "groups" of internet folks network w each other. It already happens - esp w the best performance marketers -- and it will continue to happen w founders. The power of decentralization goes beyond blockchain...
And by definition we will see less and less aggregation in powerhouse cities. Virtual is fantastic and the way of the future.
