states very clearly what is needed if governments are serious about limiting global heating to 1.5C, as agreed at Paris.
Spoiler: No new fossil fuelled infrastructure, anywhere, ever. From now on.
Read thread for details...
358 Gt from electricity (mainly power plants)
162 from industry
64 from transport, mostly on-road vehicles
That gives us another 188 Gt committed future CO2 emissions.
TOTAL: 846 Gt "if all proposed plants built and all infrastructure operated".
What does this mean? It means ALL PLANNED, PERMITTED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION fossil infrastructure must be CANCELLED. Paging @ExtinctionR !
Therefore... to have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the 1.5C goal another 100-200 Gt-equiv of power plants, cars, industry etc MUST BE CLOSED EARLY.
- 99% of coral reefs extinct
- 65 million more people exposed to deadly heat
- 2x as many plants, 3x animals lose 50% of their habitat as 1.5C
- Arctic sea ice disappears
- 10 million displaced by rising seas
But keeping to this bigger 2C budget means:
...reducing emissions by 5% per year STARTING FROM NOW. Not 2030, now.
- Massive retrofit of carbon capture & storage (ain't gonna happen)
- Large-scale negative emissions (trash the biosphere with BECCS)
- "Solar radiation management" (geoengineering - ugh)
- No new coal or gas power plants, anywhere, ever.
- Immediate transition to fully electric transport (no more diesel, petrol)
- Stop all oil/coal/gas exploration (bye bye Shell/BP/Exxon)
- Massive renewables+nuclear deployment
- Decarbonise industry
This is a CLIMATE EMERGENCY.