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A few thoughts on the just passed HR 1044.1
1st, congratulations to the many people who have been working on this bill for more than a decade. While passing in 1 house is great, those of us who remember the Senate passing comprehensive immigration reform in 2013 know that even a bill passing by a wide margin isn't enough.2
Still, it's a huge milestone and should be celebrated. 3
The bill is not the same as prior per country limits bills and the difference is important. This one would ensure anyone currently in line would be processed to completion before the bill's provisions kick in. An I-140 must be approved by 9/30 I believe to be covered. 4
That was a HUGE concession by the advocates for the bill and people complaining that they're going to be waiting longer may not realize this provision has been added. 5
The Senate version of the bill differs in a number of significant respects. The per country limits part works the same, but there are important changes to the H-1B program that will not make some people happy. 6
For one, there will be recruiting requirements added to the H-1B requirement. Not nearly as burdensome IMHO as those attached to a per country limits bill from 12 years ago that caused a rift between the immigration bar and a certain Indian worker advocacy group. 7
So I would not expect to see the same opposition that we saw back then. Nevertheless, it really only matters what the people that just passed #HR1044 think. They can either accept, oppose or try to negotiate w the Sen on that language (assuming the Senate gets a bill passed). 8
As for where things stand in the Senate, they were not able to pass by unanimous consent a few days back because of opposition from advocates of nurse staffing who convinced Senator Rand Paul to oppose. 9
I've noted that I think hospitals who oppose this bill are making a big mistake - a lot of MDs are adversely affected by the status quo & the negative impact of their leaving their hospitals is much worse than nurses who aren't even in the US potentially having to wait longer. 10
In any case, unanimous consent isn't the only avenue to get this passed in the Senate and I think it will eventually pass even if it goes through normal channels of committee passage then a floor vote. But it hinges on what Mitch McConnell wants as well as the R leaders. 11
The passage in the House with a veto-proof margin does send a big signal, however, that this is not controversial. That should help keep things moving in the Senate. The co-sponsors over there cross a wide political spectrum. 12
Also, I imagine the White House will look at the margin in the House carefully. I'm not sure the President will want to have a veto overridden over an issue that's really one that shouldn't affect his agenda. Green card numbers don't change here. 13
If the White House signals it is not strongly opposed (I'm not expecting support), that might help move things along. 14
What I think will sink the bill in the Senate is an attempt to alter the per country limits language. That took forever to negotiate. Trying to add more carve outs (such as for nurses) is going to kill that bill's chances. I think the H-1B language is a different story. 15
I don't have anything else to add for now. A good day obviously so go out and celebrate and get to work on the Senate. END 16
