Thread by @theformanalyst

The race I’m analysing is the 7.15 Carlisle. Could have went with any race at Carlisle as there are 7 handicaps on the card and these are the races I specialise in.

I’m sure it’s pretty obvious to anyone reading but the advantage of handicaps (and especially 4 year old plus handicaps) is that most of the form is already in the form book for each horse.

Yes, there will always be improvers and regressors in a race but the point is, you can deduce this from the form or at least, you can try to do this. Compare this to a 2 year old maiden where none have run before. You are guessing!

3 year old handicaps are tricky even though horses have had 3 runs as they are still improving and 3 years olds in handicaps with older horses also has the added complexity of weight allowances too, so I’ve deliberately chosen a race with no 3 year olds.

I’ve also kept away from a sprint as you have the draw angle to factor in as well as the pace angle, so trying to make this as simple as I can.

Right, I will walk through how I tackle a race using this race as an example. First place I start with for any race card or any race is the ground. Seems fairly obvious but one mistake I often see is people use current ground conditions and not likely conditions at race time.

Here is the race card. As you can see, current going is good, good to soft in places. What I really want to know is what the likely going is going to be. I’ve sort of got used to being able to analyse a weather forecast over the years!

In this example here, looks fairly straightforward to me. There is a shitload of rain expected and although there can never be an guarantees re. the weather, on the basis of probability, it looks like the ground is going to be softer than it is now.

I will assume soft going for this analysis. It can’t get any firmer than what it is now looking at the forecast. This is quite an important point though as the horses were declared on good and it is going to be softer, we need to keep this in mind going through the race.

Right, onto the actual race then. Method is very easy. You go thru each horse from the top of the handicap down. You do not skip over horses until you have formed an opinion. You NEVER not go thru the whole field. I see this mistake so often from form readers.

They have a tracker horse or a horse they want to back and they simply zone in on that one horse and build a case to back it. They ignore everything else in the race or only look at the main competitors. Big mistake.

How can you seriously weigh up a race if you don’t even look at every horse? I see it all the time from people who can study form, they take a shortcut and concentrate on the horse they want to back and nothing else. Not the way to do it.

The form analysis and form study should lead you to the conclusion. Simple really. Too many people form a conclusion and then talk themselves into a bet by talking up their horse and talking down the opposition. Just kid themselves into a bet being a better bet than it is.

Also important to work down the handicap to me too. Put simply, good horses can give weight away to poor horses and beat them. Hence, if I had two identical horses in a race that I couldn’t split but one was carrying 10 stone and one carrying 8 stone, I’d favour the top weight.

There is a class angle to racing and better class animals are able to give weight away to poorer animals easier than the ratings suggest. It is marginal but I would always favour a horse dropping in class than going up in class.

Other thing I clock from the race card is the distance and the class of the race. It is class 5 race over 9f although with the expected going and the fact it’s a lady rider race, more likely to ride like a 10f race rather than an 8f race as they don’t hang around in these races.

So, I now work down the handicap, starting with Edgar Allen Poe. It is running off a mark of 77 as I can see from the race card. Place I always start from is the career profile and gleaning what I can from this at a high level. Here’s what I see from this.

Was badly handicapped after the maiden runs and left Ireland after a few handicap runs. Showed first form at Wetherby off of 59 and then duly followed up with a win of 58 and another win (probably with a penalty although can’t tell from here without going into race).

Then raised to a mark of 71, couple of good runs on soft off of 69, back up the handicap, not competitive until down to 61, couple of places and then a win, up handicap to 67 but competitive.

Few runs later, down to 61 again and wins but then is placed under a penalty (I think) and then wins off of 68 which is a career best. Then won again under a 5lbs penalty (mark of 73) but apprentice race which meant no penalty next time.

Was then last of 6 off of 72 (was well in as no penalty for the win off of 73) and a quick check shows it just ran poorly. I’ve seen enough. Quick check of trainer form and jockey form (both had winners recently).

One last thing. Quick look at each win for running style (races mid division usually). In summary, running off a mark of 77, the horse needs a career best by a long way. 5lbs higher than finishing last in a 6 horse race (no obvious excuse).

It had a career best to win off 73 and it needs another one. Horses as exposed as this one can’t keep improving indefinitely and I need to take this on. It will be OK on the ground and trip is fine too. Likely to open too short maybe and be very weak. A lay if opens very short.

Onto the next horse. The Navigator. Much more unexposed and difficult to analyse. After a spell over hurdles, was 2nd at Carlisle off a mark of 77 when 50/1 (remember the race, they went too fast and this one was held up last and stayed on well).

Then ran poorly on soft ground next time when much more fancied and after a poor run in the Carlisle Bell (no need to check the race as I remember this running in it), it ran very well last time when dropped in class to a class 5.

Quick look at the subsequent runs of all horses around it and none have ran that well since. Also have a question mark about the soft ground. Although it won on good to soft on debut last season, was entitled to win that race. Subsequent runs have all been poor on soft.

Conclusion is that it can be competitive off a mark of 76 but doubts about what trip it wants and the ground, combined with the fact it needs a fast pace as it is held up and the two recent seconds seemed to be well run races. Could win but would want a big price to back.

Next one is Indomeneo. Won last time out after dropping from a mark of 85 to 73. Clearly still very well handicapped here off a mark of 76 and has a clear preference for softer ground which it will get here.

3 other wins in 2017 were all on soft and this hasn’t actually raced on soft too many times recently which suggests it may have got itself well handicapped on firmer ground when it really needed softer ground like it got last time out.

Form from last time is nothing special looking quickly (Remmy D was 3rd and run poorly since) and although this isn’t one I’d lay, all depends on price. Unlikely to be missed in the market given it won last time out and is still very well handicapped on favoured soft ground.

Last thing to note is that this one goes forward but is versatile and can track leaders or lead. Will not be held up out the back though.

Next horse is Anif. Won a claimer last time out but was entitled to at the weights and the second won a seller easily next time out but was expected to do so. Issue with Anif looking at the career profile is the handicap mark of 72.

Last won off a mark of 63 at Wolverhampton in March (made all) and it has run some nice races this Summer off marks of 69 and 68 before being put up to 72. Profile suggests it is probably more of an AW horse than a turf horse.

Although the 9f trip should be fine, we know this goes forward and with the soft ground and finish here, going to ride more like a 10f race. So far, it hasn’t shown it stays 10f on soft ground and reading the form of its last few runs when placing, reads like a weak finisher.

Definite doubt about the ground and distance combination here and it has looked like a weak finisher. Probably needs an easy lead here. Other issue is mark of 72 and not really looked like winning off this mark, so needs a career best.

Putting this altogether, unless it’s a big price, I can see this one drifting and I want to be against it. If it is too short, I’d lay it.

Next horse is the Mick Easterby runner Kannapolis. First thing I did here was check the trainer form as I’m aware the stable are not having many winners. The only two winners in the last month are Ladies First and Bankawi and I backed both!

Importantly though, both were very weak pre-race and it’s definitely worth being aware of this. Given my strategy is to try to back horses and lay off, if this one is likely to be drift, worth being aware of this.

The profile of this one initially makes it look an expensive horse to follow. Touched off last time off a mark of 70, back up to a mark of 72 where it has been beaten 6 times in a row before the handicapper dropped it 1lb.

Horse usually runs on firm although seems to cope OK with good to soft. I think very soft ground would be a big question mark. I quickly formed a conclusion this was probably badly handicapped although I quickly checked a few recent races.

This horse has bumped into some really well handicapped horses and I ended up going back and looking at the 11 handicap runs this one has had as it sucked me in.

Quite simply, it is amazing it hasn’t won again since the easy win off of 63 but it really has bumped into horses in nearly every race.

Nearly ever horse that has beaten this one is now rated higher and it is remarkable it hasn’t won another race. So, from going from a horse that looks poorly handicapped, it now looks like one that can win off this mark.

The issue though is the ground doubt and the trip. Steps up from a mile and for a horse so consistent, it has run poorly over 10f a few times and given it goes forward in its races, I have a big doubt about the trip/ground here.

The other issue is people will take it on due to these reasons, plus we have the stable form, plus we have the fact it is back to a mark of 72 which is keeps getting beat from and people will lay this all day.

This becomes impossible to back on first show I think but once the layers get stuck into it, this could get to a crazy price. My way of dealing with one like this is that over 8f on better ground, I’d be very keen on this having spent so long looking at it.

I’ve added it to my tracker and what I really want is for this to run OK but finish 6th or 7th, probably weakening and not staying the trip. They will drop it back to 8f on better ground next time and it’s a possible bet.

This is one thing that I can’t stress enough. Anyone reading this may think this is hard work but once you do this often enough, you don’t need to keep doing it! I know about 2/3 of the field today already as I’ve analysed past races where they’ve run.

Interestingly, Kannapolis is a new one for me but as I say, at first glance, looked poorly handicapped but this can definitely win off a mark of 72, just won’t be here (I hope!). Expect this to be a drifter from first show.

Next horse is Ghayyar. This is a horse I know very well and must have analysed about 6 or 7 races with this one in it this season. Very easy to form a view. It is on very good mark these days and will no doubt pop up at some point but generally gets over backed.

It has never looked like winning on soft ground and it is a firm ground horse. It has also never looked like winning over 10f on soft ground and this race will ride like this today.

On the plus side, seems to like Carlisle (1,3,3,2) and is definitely well enough handicapped to run well again. The only poor run in its last 6 runs was on heavy ground at Haydock over 10f and it wont be too far away from these conditions tomorrow I suspect.

It’s the sort of horse that for a Place 6, you would include as good chance if it can handle the ground it can place and the course form adds weight to this thought but from a value betting point of view, unlikely to be missed in the market and generally gets backed anyway.

I would lay it if it opened too short but in summary, not one I want to be with but not one that I want to be massively against as it will pop up at some point off this mark under the right conditions.

Next horse is Ideal Candy. Again, a horse I know very well and it is a tearaway front runner (only at this point do I start to think about the pace in this race). We now have a tearaway front runner which means Anif definitely isn’t getting an easy time out in front.

In addition, this is likely to end up a true run race where you will need to stay every yard of this trip and on soft ground. Hence, anything with a stamina doubt will likely get it exposed here. Reduces the chances of Anif, Kannapolis and Ghayaar.

At the same time, increases the chances of The Navigator as we know this will be held up last and needs a fast pace.

Anyway, back to Ideal Candy. Very easy to analyse this one. It is a firm ground horse, only ran on soft twice and ran poorly and they keep it away from soft ground as a result.

Now, this could end up being a non-runner, taking away a big pace angle but given the rain is not guaranteed and given the type of race, I suspect this will run here. Hence, it is a very easy one to take on simply due to the ground.

The other thing is we know this go forward and it has the potential to get caught up in a battle with Anif. Given it doesn’t like soft ground, it is far from ideal conditions.

Plenty of good form from a mark of 70 and will run well to a point but hard to back when you know it wants a soft lead and firm ground.

Not a horse you can ever lay pre-race as likely to trade low IR but based on the ground factor, potentially a lay IR at low odds.

I think it’s now that I start to visualise the race and how it may pan out. I have the two front runners (both with doubts), tracked by the next 3 or 4 with The Navigator last.

Of the 3 or 4, only Indomeneo has optimal conditions I think as well as a decent marks. Few others have decent marks but not optimal conditions and Edgar Allan Poe doesn’t have a decent mark! Onto the next horse.

Granite City Doc is another one I know well. This will have no issue with the trip as it stays further although it hasn’t really looked like winning off a mark of this high on turf (won off 62 at Newcastle) and was beaten off this mark at Newcastle last time.

I also have a doubt about the ground. Has a couple of placed efforts on good to soft but also a couple of poor runs and again, a horse that is generally kept to the AW and firm ground probably suggests it wants decent ground in all likelihood.

Putting it together, we have a career high mark and a doubt about the ground. It likes to track leaders, so will slot in behind the two front runners but in a race where nearly every horse I’ve looked at goes forward, not a positive.

All comes down to price but I would want a premium price to back this I think and looking at its recent SPs, unlikely I’ll get this here. It isn’t one I’d look to lay as could still be improving and could defy this mark but probably not in this race.

Onto the next horse. Bollin Ted is a horse I know very well and the one thing I do know is that it loves fast ground. It is in decent form at the moment and won well two starts ago and is back up to a mark of 61 (won from this before).

Two starts ago, it beat Ideal Candy and on the revised weights, nothing between them. However, we know both want firm ground and I’d have real reservations about Ted on soft ground. Other issue is the class. This is a 0-77 basically and Ted usually runs at a lower class than this

Putting it all together, not one I’d want to lay and if the ground wasn’t soft, would definitely come into the equation but on the assumption of soft ground, I’d have to take this on. Needs to match his career best under non-optimal conditions which is always a tricky thing to do

As always, if I could get a price on Ted, I could back it but do I honestly think I’ll get a price on one which is in great form? No, unlikely. If it opens up short, will be a drifter I suspect. It also tracks leaders, so will be in behind the pace with most of the field!

Next horse is Zealous. I know this one too and I backed it last time. Last time I backed it, I said at the time the issues with it were the trainer form (stable were totally out of form at the time) and the trip/ground as it wanted slightly softer ground and a shorter trip.

If we start with the trainer form, the stable hit form the day after Zealous ran! In their last 29 runners, had 6 winners and multiple places. Not entirely sure what was wrong with the stable but they were out of form for a long time and have a lot of well handicapped horses now

In terms of this one, it runs off a mark of 57 here. Looking at its profile, you can’t help but think it is very well handicapped. End of last season, was 2nd of 18 in an amateur riders race, clear of the 3rd. That was 10f on good to soft.

Was raised 5lbs to 68 and ran OK at Nottingham in a lady riders race. This season, it has been out of form all season but I backed it last time as two starts ago, was well backed into 15/2 but showed nothing! The fact it was backed made me think it was returning to form.

Last time out, I remember the race well. This travelled like a well handicapped horse but didn’t stay the trip and it was very unlucky to not finish placed. It tried to chase the Johnston runner who had a stone in hand.

You can watch the clips here. It’s the horse in 7th or 8th in pure white.

Here’e the finish.

To give you an idea of how well handicapped this one is, here’s that Doncaster result last year when this was second. Edgar Allan Poe and Kannapolis were 6th and 7th. They gave Zealous 5lbs.

Today, Zealous gets 20lbs from Edgar and 15lbs from Kannapolis. 15lbs and 10lbs better off for the beating Zealous gave them only in October last year. I don’t really know what happened to Zealous but watching the run last time, he looked on the way back.

In terms of how it runs, it will be held up out the back and we know it stays the trip well and it copes with the ground. We also know it is very well handicapped and with the likely pace in here, race is likely to be run to suit.

It also has first time cheekpieces which is always an indication they are trying I think. I would see it as a positive although how it reacts to them is anyone’s guess.

No idea about price as it’s a very obvious value play but when you combine everything together, this looks like a pretty strong bet at potentially decent odds. Let’s see the betting first before we get carried away!

Last horse in the race is Bob’s Girl who won last time but I saw the race and it was a fluke. Went clear with another, had the run of the race. Had been beaten off a basement mark of 45 numerous times. Likely to chase the pace here today.

It is out of the handicap today, massively up in class and on much different ground. Likely to be an outsider but it is impossible to back this one I think as surely can’t repeat the last run.

So, that completes the analysis. The final piece of course is the odds. The only two with no negatives are Indomeneo and Zealous. Kannapolis is interesting for future and The Navigator will be the other one who gets the race to suit.

Edgar Allan Poe is the one I want to take on from this mark and a couple of others don’t want this ground and trip.