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very rare to get published Cabinet minute within a week of the meeting, or in this case the call happening - but we have, as a result of the court case in Edinburgh - there’s some interesting wider stuff in there. First up - its the call made when prorogation plan leaks /1 
... starting at the end
PM told the call that there was “a high chance” that a deal could not be secured.
And yet there was also that there was a good chance a deal could be secured.
“There were no plans for an early General election”. /2
PM told the call that there was “a high chance” that a deal could not be secured.
And yet there was also that there was a good chance a deal could be secured.
“There were no plans for an early General election”. /2
.. also the PM told Cabinet that the progress with the EU was substantial but “should not be exaggerated” /3
Another Cabinet minister on the call says: “the Government has had more impact with the EU in the preceding six weeks than in the whole of the previous year” - sounds like someone close to the Brexit negotiations. But that view not reflected in Europe. /4
At least one Cabinet min did discuss early General election on call - but also asked PM re the messaging on prerogative “not to pit the Government against MPs” because some MPs “had previously experienced abuse for positions they had taken on Brexit”.
A week is a long time../5
A week is a long time../5
.. when the PM explains the prorogation - the first concern raised is from an unnamed minister who immediately raises the concern that the new timetable impacts the sitting days to pass the NI Budget Bill and potentially “put at risk” necessary No Deal legislation for NI /6
Further, that minister, and it sounds like it is the NI Secretary, concludes on the Cabinet call of the decision to prorogue: “This would be a significant decision for the future of Northern Ireland”.
Ie it seems PM is directly being warned of an impact:
Ie it seems PM is directly being warned of an impact:
..PM’s response to his Cabinet’s concerns about impact on NI - not clear answer for NI was “more time”. “If anything, this should give further impetus to restore the NI executive”... and he says he will speak to Arlene Foster “to emphasis point”. Other NI leaders not mentioned /7
... PM’s new critique of the backstop mentioned in Tusk letter - that “it tilts the balance of the Good Friday Agreement towards Dublin” - this is such a major policy change from predecessor, who said backstop helped respect GFA. /8
Bigger point is this - it happened a week ago, and no one in Cabinet is recorded as warning the PM about possibility of the subsequent whirlwind the prorogation caused - no this will go down badly with our backbenchers, unify the squabbling opposition, etc etc /9
More on NI and prorogation and No Deal:
