Thread by @andrewjfaris

1/8 There is constant chatter about organic reach on FB & IG being inversely related to Page Likes. This observation from @TheBabylonBee is a classic example.

So what's going on? Does FB just want bigger pages to pay to play? Is this a big tech company cash grab?

I doubt it.

https://twitter.com/SethDillon/status/1171903142574854146

2/ My guess is that the "growing your page results in less total reach" theory (or any suggestion that FB actively forces an inverse relationship between those two) is a red herring for explaining this.

I'd bet organic reach has very little inherent relationship with Page Likes.

3/ Here's what I think is going on: FB's algorithm simply doesn't consider a Page Like a reliable indicator of a user's sincere interest in a page.

Instead, it relies on behavioral factors (especially high quality engagement) to determine what content gets promoted organically.

4/ @netflix used to ask a new user "What kind of movies do you like?" Well, everyone SAYS they like foreign and arthouse films.

But then we all just watch Adam Sandler movies and reruns of The Office. So that's what Netflix's algorithm feeds them– and now it doesn't even ask.

5/ There's nothing shady going on here. Behavioral psychologists will tell you that our perception of our preferences is often out of sync with our actual preferences. It's why survey data (which isn't too far from what a Page Like actually is) is so often useless.

6/ So in the above example, my guess is that since the initial shine and virality of the Babylon Bee wore off, their content gets less serious engagement (anecdotal note/bias disclaimer: I read it a ton at first and no longer read any b/c I don't think the quality has kept up).

7/ If this theory is right, the lesson for social media marketers & content creators of all stripes is very simple: algorithms reward highly engaging content. Our behavior indicates what we like. Not our stated preferences.

8/ And since FB is essentially a giant content promotion system, behavioral-based promotion isn't nefarious; it's just logical.

Now, let's see if anyone engages with this tweetstorm. If not, most of you won't see it. If that happens, I guess I'll just have to point thumbs.