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Jonathan Bernstein
@jbview
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
218 to call the current formal impeachment inquiry an even more formal impeachment inquiry? Yeah, but what's the point?

218 to approve articles? Maybe. But if all they have is 218, it gets maybe 45 in the Senate. And then what?
I do think it's correct that moving ahead with impeachment would make impeachment more popular with people who don't like Trump but currently oppose impeachment.
But there's no reason to believe impeachment per se will make Trump less popular. Didn't work in 1998-1999. Didn't work in 1974.
What *might* work to make Trump less popular would be effective hearings. Doesn't matter if they're "impeachment" hearings (which they will be at this point) or not. 1973 hearings hurt Nixon but were not impeachment hearings.
Unfortunately, House Dems have not demonstrated the abiity to hold effective hearings. (They are getting better, but overall? No.). A House vote double-formalizing the impeachment inquiry ain't gonna change that.

But on top of that....
Trump is already ~15 pts of approval below where the fundamentals would predict. It's possible those who can be moved by anything the Dems can do have already been moved. OTOH....
What *would* hurt Trump's approval would be more high-profile Republicans speaking out against him, or at least against what he's done/doing. That remains the ballgame. Perhpas it can't happen. But that's what would change things.
Just please don't tell me the virtue of a partisan impeachment and acquittal is that then, and only then, Republicans would "own" all of this. They already do. There's *zero* reason to think an impeachment vote would change anything.
Oh, and please don't tell me that *impeachment* helped Republicans in 2000. It's possible the Clinton scandal helped Republicans in 2000. There's no reason at all to believe impeachment made it worse for Gore, and quite a bit of reason to think it made it better.
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jbview
This is a serious question about future presidents and deserves some thought. @YAppelbaum @fordm

Assume we're talking about a party-line vote (plus Amash) in the House, followed by a straight party vote or worse in the Senate. That's what it looks like now. (1/ )
@YAppelbaum @fordm Could hearings and investigation change that? Perhaps! But irrelevant, since those should happen with or without an impeachment context.* I think it's unlikely that the actual drafting and debate over articles of impeachment would change minds.
@YAppelbaum @fordm *Yes, there are arguments that impeachment hearings would be different. That wasn't the case in 1973-1974; I'm not convinced that it would be different now.

So let's stipulate a party-line impeachment and acquittal, which is I think what the advocates are in fact stipulating.
Read 12 tweets
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jbview
Quick electoral college thread: Went back to the oldest Polsby & Wildavsky Presidential Elections I own - 4th ed., 1976 to see their case for the EC. It's *badly* dated.
They argue mainly that the EC has tended to empower big cities and the diverse populations in large states. That's good, for them, because...
...it balanced off how the Senate (and pre-Baker v. Carr, the House) were biased in favor of one-party states, which tended to be either all-Anglo or ruled by all-Anglo parties.

That's essentially gone now.
Read 7 tweets
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jbview
The press has hounded Marco Rubio for years because he...once reached awkwardly for a water bottle. Mitt Romney, anyone? The idea that only Dems are subject to this nonsense is just goofy.
The liberal idea that rich and corporate management -> conservative media bias is just as wrong as the conservative idea that liberal reporters and editors -> liberal media bias.
Media bias is real and matters, but it mostly comes from media self-interest (for high ratings/sales/clicks, for 1st amdt, etc.) and from media norms, which are complicated but not ideological in any obvious way and certainly not partisan.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Puesto Loco™
@PuestoLoco
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
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Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
CLEARING UP THE #IMPEACHMENT CONFUSION

This is the third article today about the muddled message from Dem leaders.

It's actually very simple:

#Pelosi has no intention of impeaching Trump.

#Nadler was fine with that. Until @LindseyBoylan, a serious challenger, came along...
@LindseyBoylan So @RepJerryNadler has managed to hide behind @SpeakerPelosi and blame her for slow-walking #impeachment.

But for months, he was downplaying #impeachment ... before he got a serious challenger.
@LindseyBoylan @RepJerryNadler @SpeakerPelosi In the end, #Nadler is trying to keep his seat, so he's playing politics with his most sacred duty as a representative, to protect the Constitution.

And he's doing it by pushing what I call "Schrödinger's impeachment" -- an impeachment inquiry that isn't really one.
Read 3 tweets
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👏🏼바👏🏼바👏🏼바
@TayHoBae
“Of course I forgave you,” Hoseok chuckled. “You got me ice cream—and what was I gonna do, transfer? Get a new roommate?”

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Yoongi just nodded, mentally putting himself back together.

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Rob 🔂
@Unpersuaded112
Lets talk about #Impeachment. I want to offer you a view of WHY the House of Representatives should start impeachment hearings immediately and why this is VERY bad for Mitch McConnell in the Senate. Any member of the House can initiate impeachment proceedings. This is a thread...
The impeachment initiative must be voted on in several House committees, if it passes these committees it goes to the House floor to be debated and ultimately voted on with a simple majority. If it passes it is reported (sent) to the Senate where all the evidence from the ...
House debate is presented, then some private deliberation takes place in the Senate and then the Senate take up a debate and conviciton vote, this public debate and conviction could last weeks, each day forcing republicans to debate and go on record on trump...
Read 6 tweets
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Larisa Alexandrovna
@larisa_a
1. I am so sick of hearing that the ONLY reason Trump should be impeached is if he conspired with a foreign power to steal the election. Let's remove that entire smokescreen and look at impeachment as a tool and why Trump needs to be impeached EVEN WITHOUT conspiracy allegations.
2. First, let's be clear about the ramifications of Pelosi's impeachment-is-too-divisive bullshit. We heard this before, about 15 years ago, when she took impeachment "off the table" even though the Bush administration lied us into an illegal war of aggression and ...
3. And violated Geneva conventions to make torture part of the intelligence toolbox. Here is what I opined then: "When Speaker Pelosi declared that the impeachment of President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney was “off the table,” she not only abdicated her Constitutional..."
Read 25 tweets
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ML Hart
@MsMartha_writer
Even though creative work is about persistence far more than it's about inspirational breakthroughs, there are times when it just gets to you. To me. My work has stalled in the last year or more. I hope others can relate to this thread of the dark side and coming into the light.
2/ My work in progress for the last 20 years (not a typo) has been off and on, manic and dead in the water. #TheTenorBook, my sin, my soul - well, not really. But not *not* either. Far and away the most complex task I've ever set myself.
3/ Life got in the way *many* times and not just a little, but a lot. I tried to walk away from it half a dozen times. Path, not destination, I told myself. But every single time I'd review the photographs, re-read the interviews, I knew my drive to tell the story remained.
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