Thread by @GarthGodsman

One of the most frustrating things about the climate debate is trying to get it through to the disciples of St Greta that the science does NOT support their alarmism fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/16/ipc… #auspol #ClimateChange

There are grounds for concern and action, yes, but not the hysterical doom-laden expectation of a climate apocalypse sometime soon.
#auspol #ClimateChange

"Summary: The IPCC’s Special Report “Global Warming of 1.5°C” is cited as the basis for climate activists’ predictions of doom. Look at the report. There is nothing in it justifying such apocalyptic forecasts."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"The IPCC uses five levels of confidence: very low, low, medium, high, and very high."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"“Medium” is a weak basis for extreme measures to restructure society and the global economy. Especially since it is human nature to overestimate confidence more often than to underestimate it."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"For more about this, see Judith Curry’s “A crisis of overconfidence.”" judithcurry.com/2019/01/02/nat…
#auspol #ClimateChange

"There is nothing in this Special Report justifying belief that the world will end, that the world will burn, or that humanity will go extinct.
It has been misrepresented just as past reports have been"
#auspol #ClimateChange

"The disasters described [by] the Climate Emergency and Extinction Rebellion activists are those of RCP8.5, the worst-case scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report – or even beyond it."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"RCP8.5 is, as a worst-case scenario should be, a horrific but not apocalyptic future that is improbable or impossible."
See Dr Judith Curry's 'What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios' judithcurry.com/2019/03/28/wha…
#auspol #ClimateChange

"Some climate scientists I have spoken with dismiss the hysterical claims of climate activists. That is a mistake. The effectiveness of propaganda is unrelated to its accuracy. It just has to tell a compelling story."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"For years, RCP8.5 provided the material for an almost endless series of stories to scare the public about the horrible future ahead if we did not change the world." fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/16/ipc…
#auspol #ClimateChange

"But eventually people pointed out that RCP8.5 was either extremely improbable or impossible. Scientists began considering less extreme scenarios. The entire doomster program was at risk."
#auspol #ClimateChange

So the 2°C warming target was, without much to justify it, lowered to 1.5°C
fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/16/ipc…
#auspol #ClimateChange

Climate scientist J. Ray Bates sets out the problems with SR1.5 “Deficiencies In the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 Degrees”
thegwpf.org/new-paper-docu…
#auspol #ClimateChange

Professor Bates notes that SR1.5 moves towards "an increased sense of planetary emergency without giving rigorous scientific reasons for doing so," and ...
#auspol #ClimateChange

... ignores the evidence accumulated since 2013's AR5 report that "significantly reduces the prospect of a looming emergency."
#auspol #ClimateChange

Why have so few scientists spoken out about the misrepresentation of SR15?
Some are activists who support exaggeration, "others rightly fear attack from the Left’s enforcers"
fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/16/ipc…
#auspol #ClimateChange

Finally! The missing link between exploding stars, clouds and climate on Earth sciencebits.com/CosmicRays_Cli…
#auspol #ClimateChange

"Our new results published today in Nature Communications provide the last piece of a long studied puzzle. We finally found the actual physical mechanism linking between atmospheric ionization and the formation of cloud condensation nuclei."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"Thus, we now understand the complete physical picture linking solar activity and our galactic environment (which govern the flux of cosmic rays ionizing the atmosphere) to climate here on Earth though changes in the cloud characteristics."
#auspol #ClimateChange

"In short, as small aerosols grow to become cloud condensation nuclei, they grow faster under higher background ionization rates." sciencebits.com/CosmicRays_Cli…
#auspol #ClimateChange

The significance of this research into the links between climate change and cosmic ray flux is that the number for equilibrium climate sensitivity (how much warming caused by CO2) is much more likely to be low, rather than high.
#auspol #ClimateChange

But activists don't want to hear this.
#auspol #ClimateChange

This is an important piece of the climate change puzzle people have been ignoring - the influence of cosmic rays on cloud formation sciencebits.com/CosmicRays_Cli…
#auspol #ClimateChange

The TRUTH about the absurd claims made by Extinction Rebellion about climate change with the brilliant Matt Ridley, discussing the REAL facts about climate change
#auspol #ClimateChange

What the supposed 97% consensus amongst scientists actually consists of - yes, climate change is real, yes it is at least partly man made, no, it is not likely to be catastrophic.
#auspol #ClimateChange

Likely warming is in the range of 1.5 degree C, and that IS NOT a big problem.
#auspol #ClimateChange

Current global drought trend? Slightly down, as you would expect in a warming world.

#auspol #ClimateChange

No increase in either frequency or severity of tropical storms.
#auspol #ClimateChange

And for the Greens and co, their idea of debate seems to be to shout 'denier' and then run away
#auspol #ClimateChange

Ridley notes that in the late 80s he was alarmed by climate change, but is no longer as the evidence has come in.
#auspol #ClimateChange

After the debunking of the Hockey Stick and the embarrassing revelations of behind-the-scenes shenanigans within climate science in #climategate, the activists went from trying to argue a point to trying to get people banned by the media.
#auspol #ClimateChange

Unfortunately, media outfits like the @guardian were foolish enough to be conned by this
#auspol #ClimateChange

@guardian As Ridley notes, there are deniers out there - 'nutters' - who think nothing is happening, but the term denier is now applied to anyone, even climate scientists, who want a considered discussion about what we know and the level of risk.
#auspol #ClimateChange

The whole point of science is that you don't have to "believe" in it. Either the evidence for something exists, or it does not.
#auspol #ClimateChange

Ridley: people say why don't you take the Royal Society's word for it on climate change, but the motto of the Royal Society is don't take people's word for it.
#auspol #ClimateChange

"If I wanted arguments from authority, I'd have joined the Catholic Church."
#auspol #ClimateChange

Ridley: already in the current interglacial, about 6,000 years ago, it was quite a bit warmer than it is today - the Holocene Climate Optimum - no summer sea ice in the Arctic.
#auspol #ClimateChange