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538 national polling average for Dec. 9, 2019

Biden: 25.6%

Sanders: 16.3
Warren: 15.0

Buttigieg: 9.9

Bloomberg: 4.2
Yang: 3.4
Klobuchar: 2.1
Booker: 1.7
Steyer: 1.5
Gabbard: 1.3
Castro: 1.0
Patrick: 0.7
Bennet: 0.6
Williamson: 0.5
Delaney: 0.5
There is very little national movement. As compared with one week ago:

Biden: 26.1 -> 25.6 (-0.5)
Sanders: 16.4 -> 16.3 (-0.1)
Warren: 15.6 -> 15.0 (-0.6)
Buttigieg 10.0 -> 9.9 (-0.1)
Bloomberg 3.8 -> 4.2 (+0.4)
Early states. THESE ARE ADJUSTED FOR NATIONAL TRENDS.

IA Buttigieg 23.6—Bernie 18.0—Biden 17.0—Warren 12.9
NH Bernie 18.6—Buttigieg 18.4—Biden 14.8—Warren 13.1
NV Biden 26.2—Bernie 19.8—Warren 14.6—Buttigieg 8.9
SC Biden 37.8—Bernie 13.2—Warren 8.6—Buttigieg 7.6
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Klobuchar literally did exactly what I said she should do before the debate, so any time a candidate does that I'm going to count that as a strong evening. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/demo…
Also, this was basically Biden's first gaffe-free debate, so I'm kind of curious how party elites will respond. He'd already gotten decent numbers of endorsements in the past several weeks. 53eig.ht/2SahhJz
None of that is to say that the other candidates were poor. I thought it was a sharp debate all around. I just think there's a little bit more uncertainty in how voters will react to say, Buttigieg, who was on the defensive a lot.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I mean... one thing that will *probably* be true is that people looking back on the 2020 election in hindsight will attribute more significance to impeachment than it actually had on the outcome.
I don't mean to suggest that impeachment will have *no* impact. But:

1) The effects will likely be hard to tease out;
2) Trump creates an awful lot of news so voters have a lot to weigh aside from impeachment;
3) It's not clear what baseline we're comparing against.
By 3) I mean it's not as though impeachment was some exogenous shock that came out of nowhere. Nobody should really be surprised by Trump's behavior. No one should be surprised that Republicans defended him. No one should be surprised that the D base pressured Pelosi to impeach.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
538 national polling average, with comparison to the average before the *previous* debate (Nov. 20)

Biden 27.0 (26.7)
Sanders 18.0 (16.1)
Warren 14.8 (19.7)
Buttigieg 8.8 (7.6)
Bloomberg 4.6 (2.7)
Yang 3.4 (2.6)
Klobuchar 2.8 (2.1)
Booker 2.0 (1.6)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
* It's been a good month for Sanders and Biden.
* If there's good news for Warren, it's that she's essentially unchanged over the past ~2 weeks; the decline came earlier.
* We have Buttigieg up from last month, but having fallen slightly from his peak (9.9%) 2-3 weeks sago.
* Klobuchar at her all time high as of this AM.
* Yang near his all-time high.
* You could take a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty view on Bloomberg, who shot up to ~4% within a week of formally entering the race but has been relatively flat since.
Read 3 tweets

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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Topless Topics
@ToplessTopics
#warren/#buttigieg 2020. Tell me why I'm wrong.
I was really hoping to elect a person of color, and I still have some interest in Harris. But she's getting too much heat for her prosecutor background. Besides Warren has the most policies that align with my view of America, AND she knows how to make those goals achievable!
And Buttigieg... I'm still learning about his ability to govern, but I'm continually impressed by how worldly and hella SMART he is. and he's obviously had some inside experience of oppression as a gay man from middle America.
Read 12 tweets

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