Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #sudan

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Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 22 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda. ImageImageImage
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa. ImageImageImageImage
Read 19 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.

#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.

More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Read 16 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Read 17 tweets
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
Today's #Sahara & #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

It is now two weeks till the first open democratic #Ethiopian election.
To open here's a high resolution satellite image of the Nile Basin from Cairo to Lake Victoria including Eastern Ethiopia where the #GERD dam is located, and where the Blue Nile - source of much of the Nile's flow - originates in Lake Tana (the heart shaped lake).
We will zoom in on the #HornOfAfrica starting with the wider picture. On the left side of this image you can see a #WesternSahara water transport event which is significantly impacting weather conditions in Europe. (See more in the attached thread )
Read 17 tweets
Well its hard to know where to begin with today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.

The action is now further north, and west. Here we see the consequences of the first phase of what appears to be becoming a continuous #WesternSaharaPlume.
An bit of a battle us underway between a high pressure system over Northern Erope and the plume which is entering at the bottom left in this image of Jetstream level 250Hpa 11km high winds.
While the model forecasts remain optimistic that an orderly jetstream may eventually appear, so far this has not happened. And in the meantime these winds are picking up moisture in the tropics and taking it in large quantities to places where its not expected.
Read 27 tweets
#YEMEN:Military media shows new scenes to storm Saudi army’s sites in #Jizan
The military media of the #Yemeni army continued on Monday to show video scenes to complete the massive military operation in Jizan axis.

The scenes showed the storming more than 30 military sites belonging to the #Saudi army and mercenaries from the #Sudanese army by the units of the #Yemeni army in areas of a difficult geographical nature.

1/3
The released video also documented a mass escape of dozens of #Saudi soldiers and mercenaries from their positions, leaving their weapons and food supplies as booty for the #Yemeni army, in addition to capturing #Sudanese mercenaries.

1/4
Read 21 tweets
A big day for #WestAfricaMonsoon observation.

A full plume event is becoming obvious in central & eastern Europe + Russia. We also have thunderstorms over the Red Sea, and a low circulation heading towards a collision with water vapour over Israel.

Today's forecasts follow.
Visually speaking this is the most extraordinary looking satellite observation of the day.

Now into its sixth day the #EastAfricaWaterPlume has been generating lots of rain over the Red Sea, both last night and today, & right now just off the coast of Jeddah. @Arab_Storms
Here we see a wider view while it is not that obvious in this view, the stream of water vapour heading up the Western Sahara coast is running fast and hot. Later I will post an initial post tracking its impact in Europe. But for now its worth looking closer at North Africa.
Read 27 tweets
1/6 Some clips from the @ukhouseoflords #Genocide Debate last Thursday #Xinjiang #Burma #Tigray #Nigeria #Iraq #Sudan

In full at: davidalton.net/2021/05/27/gen…
2/6
Current arrangements simply do not work
3/6
I asked @DominicRaab if his intention was to accept the @HouseofCommons #Genocide declaration. #China #CCP
Read 6 tweets
With Cyclone #Yaas soaking up all the moisture east of the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica it was a relatively calm day. Albeit not without another intense set of storms along the Red Sea Coast in the Jinzan mountains.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The days began relatively quiet on the #WestAfricanMonsoon front thanks to Cyclone #Yaas. This image shows a strip from the Libyan Coast across the Sahara down to the Congo.
And it remained fairly quiet over the great forests of equatorial Africa today. But further West over the Ivory Coast and the West Sahara the #WestAfricaWaterPlume continued to pump water vapour across the Sahara into Europe.
Read 16 tweets
Cyclone #Yaas is just 2 days away from landfall on the North Eastern Indian Coast in the Odisha and once onshore is forecast pass over the ancient city of Jaipur.


Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
We have a stunningly clear image of the #NileBasin this morning from @NASA Modis from Cairo to Lake Victoria showing the impact of the April and May rains on the landscape.
In today's 10-Day North Africa rain forecasts the European @ECMWF model remains unconvinced about the impact of #WestAfricaWaterPlumes on the Sahara, which as you will soon see are once again having a spectacular impact on European weather.
Read 18 tweets
*Statement by the Father of Dr. Ding Col Dau Ding on the Recent Killings of Healthcare Professionals and Aid Workers in South Sudan*

Monday 24 May, 2021
(Washington DC; London)

#SouthSudan #Sudan #SSOT
It has been almost six years since my youngest son, Dr. Ding Col Dau Ding (1) - a British educated medical doctor and dual citizen of both South Sudan and the United Kingdom - was brutally murdered in Juba, the capital city and seat of government of #SouthSudan.
I have noted the recent statement made by the British, European and the US diplomatic missions in the country, and by the South Sudan Doctors’ Union (2), condemning the killings and calling for swift justice to be meted out by the government of #SouthSudan;…
Read 10 tweets
This is not the first time that the @BBC “fell short of high standards of integrity and transparency”, in order to try to get a scoop, with serious consequences. #Sudan #SouthSudan
In 1991, the then @BBCWorld correspondent, Colin Blane, erroneously reported on a live @bbcworldservice broadcast that a coup had taken place within the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M); and that John Garang De Mabior had been removed from his leadership position.
Blane reported the coup claim without any confirmation; and simply after being invited to interview Riek Machar & Lam Akol - the 1991 coup leaders - in Nasir after Blane’s visit was arranged by Emma McCune, an expatriate British aid worker who had become married to Riek Machar.
Read 10 tweets
Cyclone Tauktae is now onshore over the Indian State of Gujarat India. The storm has weakened since these photos were taken by @NASA Modis this morning, but is still packing 150kmh winds & has done a lot of damage.

Rainfall forecasts for #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
Today's satellite presentation of the area has a new feature which has been strengthening over the past few days. A stream of water vapour out of Central Africa & Sudan transiting Chad and Sudan and then the Red Sea near Jeddah.
There is also an increasing amount of activity in the Western Sahara which supports the CMC and KMA model predictions of significant rainfall in these areas in recent forecasts.
Read 19 tweets
Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

Image: A @NASA Modis image of Egypt, the red sea and the Horn of Africa sources of the Nile taken this morning.
First up we have today's 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA weather models.
Here are today's #HOA forecasts beginning with #Ethiopia 10-day rainfall from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA 17th May model runs. #Sudan, #SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland
Read 9 tweets
Tonight Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae is already a Cat 3 Hurricane equivalent Cyclone, 24 hours ahead of schedule and tearing up the West Indian coastline on its way north.

Today's #ME and #HOA rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Three more views from the image.

The first shows the positioning of this morning's @NASA Modis picture of Tauktae in relation to the coast. Nearly half the central convection area is over India.

The 2nd shows a wider perspective. & the 3rd provides borders for orientation. ImageImageImage
Further west here are four images from today of the #HornOfAfrica, the #NileDelta, the #Levant and #UAE + #Oman. ImageImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Severe Cyclone Tauktae is happening..... moving north up the West India Coastline and strengthening rapidly. It is expected to become a very severe storm (Cat 3) in 48 hours.

Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow,
Meanwhile back on solid ground, East Africa is looking resplendently verdant this morning. Here in a photo taken by the @NASA Modis satellite. ImageImage
Eyes in the sky....

There's an unusually clear picture today of the Levant, Israel, Gaza and Jerusalem as the world is watching as the horrific bombardment of Gaza continue. Including today, the bombing of the @AJEnglish and @AP offices.

War crimes are multiplying by the hour. ImageImageImageImage
Read 16 tweets
*Political Corruption & Organised Crime*

Tuesday 11 May, 2021
(Washington DC; London)

#SouthSudan #Sudan #SSOT

Today, the elder brother of the late Dr. Ding Col Dau Ding (1) released the second part of his “Personal Reflection”. It is published in full below:
###

*Political Corruption and Organised Crime in South Sudan*

*Part Two of Three*

Following decades of a post-independence civil war - with a hiatus of an intermittent peace process in the 1970s which led to some governance stability and development in the then…
…southern Sudan, including the instituting of an organised law enforcement and criminal justice system - a second civil war erupted in 1983.

This second civil war ultimately led to southern Sudan’s independence in 2011 under the auspices of…
Read 45 tweets
#Palestine:
Al-Qassam warned #Israel with an ultimatum until 18:00 today to withdraw from al-Aqsa and release all prisoners. This indicates once more that Palestine is united and that #Gaza is using its military capability to support the Palestinians everywhere on the territory.
Standing with #Palestine at this moment is a responsibility of all women and men. We are in the 21st century, and this 👇is unacceptable. The world should stand against it.

The Arab leaders who enjoy official diplomatic-commercial relationship and normalised with #Israel are also included I presume #UAE #Bahrein #Qatar #Morocco #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Egypt

Read 9 tweets
The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Read 14 tweets
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
Read 16 tweets
Yesterday U.S. Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman - who has come out of retirement for the task after retiring from UN in 2018 - was in Egypt discussing #GERD & related #Sudan and #Ethiopia conflict issues with close U.S. Ally Egypt.
This report from @AlMonitor >> al-monitor.com/originals/2021… << provides a very interesting insight into the scale of the challenges facing the US Envoy to the Horn of Africa during his visit during the lead up to June 5 elections in Ethiopia.
Note: That the March 5th dates referred to in the report are an error these events also took place yesterday May 5th, and indicate a sharp increase in tension.
Read 11 tweets

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