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Terrific panel at #ASSA: aeaweb.org/webcasts/2020/… on the book by Anne Case and Angus Deaton “Deaths of despair and the future of capitalism”(out in March)on the terrifying health crisis in US with overall decreasing life expectancy and mortality trends among American whites1/n
In the past 3 years life expectancy decreased in the US and the following chart presented by Case/Deaton shows the uniqueness of the US with an inefficient health system that uses 18% of GDP against 10% in the EU and produces much worse health outcomes 2/n
These results stem from the drugs, alcohol and suicide crisis affecting american whites mortality rates (the thick red line, USW) but not hispanics (the thick blue line, USH) in this shocking chart 3/n
Case/Deaton express in this slide their view about the rent-seeking US health system system 4/n
The starkly inefficiency is also reflected in staggering price differences of health procedures compared with other countries as the NYT recently reported: “In the U.S., an Angioplasty Costs $32,000. Elsewhere? Maybe $6,400” ( eg NL) 5/5
nytimes.com/2019/12/27/ups…
Some more charts from Anne Case presentation at AEA ASSA 2020
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Vitor Constâncio
@VMRConstancio
Two positives for the recovery after the virus crisis abates will be a low oil price and low interest, two expansionary conditions. Supply shortages may temporarily put-up prices but deflation risks will increase if monetary policy will not contain second round effects./1
Stock prices will take care of themselves as the economy will recover. A big risk lies with high yield corporate bonds. Some defaults possible in the US. In general, corporate leverage has increased, sometimes to buyback own stocks, something liberalised in the US in 1982 /2
Also, in 1984 the US liberalised the issuance of mortgage ABS and later allowed them to be used in repos and changed the Bankruptcy Law to exclude repos from bankruptcy processes thus rendering them a “safe haven”, allowing an explosion of inside liquidity that funded bubbles./3
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Vitor Constâncio
@VMRConstancio
Anchors away! Structural change in energy economics with Russia/Saudi Arabia aiming at US shale oil and expansion of renewables. Deep temporary economic shock from the coronavirus. Markets mistrust of central banks’ firepower and fiscal authorities. Both anchors needed. /1
The is not like 2008 because it’s an economic shock that didn’t start in the financial sector. Money markets not frozen,no concerns with banks’ solvency.Look though to the spread between interbank unsecured rates and the OIS rates as sign of mistrust within the financial system/2
That spread has increased but not really spiked.The main responsibility of central banks now is to avoid the economic shock translating into a financial crisis. Meaningful liquidity provision needed, both general and specialised, including various forms of credit easing. /3
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Vitor Constâncio
@VMRConstancio
Big variance in predictions about the virus and its economic impact. For The Economist “..25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease...Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions.”… we could have a global recession. /1
There are milder forecasts, depending on (difficult) containment success by the 60±. countries already infected. For the economy, the supply and demand shocks are quickly conflating. Supply-side policies to help preserve vital supply-chains and demand stimulus are necessary/2
A few days ago I asked: Would rate cuts by some basis points produce visible results? Is a “gesture” unavoidable in the game with financial markets? Or is it more important the “game” with Treasuries for a bit of necessary fiscal policy? It´s certainly a lot about fiscal./3
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Orthodox Conservatives
@OrthodoxConsGrp
By utilitarian measures, the world improving. On the question of meaning, they’re unraveling.

/ An important thread
The rise in depression and anxiety strongly points to a lack of meaning. As can be seen here, the NHS worryingly reports a rise since the 1990s.

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
Infact, mental health problems are particularly endemic among young people, according to the NHS.

Coincidentally, they are the portion of the population who have only ever experienced this modernity.

england.nhs.uk/wp-content/upl…
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New York Times Opinion
@nytopinion
"Up and down the age spectrum, deaths of despair have been surging for people without a four-year college degree," write @DLeonhardt and @stuartathompson on the research of Anne Case and Angus Deaton nyti.ms/2ItWwCE
Case and Deaton argue that life for many middle- and low-income Americans without college degrees can lack structure, status and meaning. For example, marriage rates have diverged and church attendance has declined. nyti.ms/2ItWwCE
Surveys show that a growing number of working-class Americans find it difficult to do basic things, like climb a flight of stairs or socialize, partly because of chronic problems with their mental or physical health. nyti.ms/2ItWwCE
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David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
Working-class life in the United States is harder than working-class life in any other rich country, as Anne Case and Angus Deaton document in their new book ... nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The starkest sign of working-class struggles is the shocking rise in deaths from suicide, alcohol and drug use.

The initial research focuses on middle-aged whites. But the problem is much broader than that.
"Deaths of despair" have also surged among African-Americans in the last few years.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Now at a panel called "Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism", with Anne Case, Angus Deaton, Robert Putnam, Raghuram Rajan, and Kenneth Rogoff.

Should be fun.
Case: Capitalism isn't working for people without a college degree. In America that's about 2/3 of working age people.

It's not inequality that's killing people so much as unfairness, which generates both inequality AND despair.
Case: Since 1990, mortality has fallen dramatically for:
A) Black Americans
B) Citizens of every other rich country

White American mortality has risen, driven by people dying in mid-life.
Read 28 tweets
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Patrick Simpson
@patrickLSimpson
Thread: I’ve been dealing with some health issues for a while and I need to make a thread about this.

Friends, if you’re feeling off and you can’t figure out why or If your normal health issues are ramped up to 100 - go get your thyroid tested.

It honestly saved my life
2: I had made a thread about feeling mildly depressed all my life so I went on anti depressants and I felt the little things get better. It wasn’t as life changing but it was great.

One day, four or so months ago - all of that disappeared overnight.
3: My sleep apnea isn’t new but my wife noticed it get progressively worse recently AND I started having unbearable insomnia.

After starting thyroid meds 3 weeks ago, my insomnia is gone and I’m able to sleep in bed for the first time in 4 years.
Read 8 tweets

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