I've been asked multiple times on what I think the impacts of these fires will have on our alpine flora and fauna. #BushFireCrisisAustralia (1/19) 
Broadly, fire in the alps is more common than what most people think. Historically, a fire at a given location in the alps occurs every 50-100 years (2/19).
Previous fires (e.g. 2003) have shown us that the majority of the vegetation in the treeless and snow gum woodland has a strong capacity to resprout post-fire. We also know that some vegetation types are much more flammable than others. (3/19)
For example, in the high elevation treeless zone, heathland is substantially more flammable than grasslands, to such an extent that the 2003 alpine fires burnt between 59-87% of heathland in the Bogong High Plains, while only 13% of the grasslands/herbfields burnt. (4/19)
While this suggests that an entire ecosystem collapse is unlikely from a single large fire, plant communities can be devastated. One such alpine example is the coniferous heath that is habitat and a food source for the critically endangered mountain pygmy possum habitat. (5/19)
Like the lower elevation mountain ash forest, when these coniferous heath are severely burnt, the plants are killed and re-establish by seed which then take decades or more before it becomes viable pygmy possum habitat. (6/19)
Similarly, if alpine bogs and wetlands get severely burnt recovery will take decades or may not happen at all. Moreover, if another fire comes through before these plants can produce seed they can be lost forever. (7/19)
What we don't know much about is how the dominate alpine fauna (invertebrates) will be impacted and recover from such fires. These fauna provide multiple critical ecosystem functions from pollination through to decomposition of vegetation litter. (8/19)
In many cases, these fauna have very limited dispersal capabilities and as such, are unlikely to outrun the fire. My own guess is that fauna responses will mostly be driven by how their habitat is impacted by fire and how quickly it can recover. (9/19)
In highly flammable vegetation (snow gum woodlands & heathlands) I suspect fauna population losses will be greatest due to the higher fire severity (fire temperatures & biomass consumption) relative to less flammable alpine communities (e.g. grasslands & herbfields). (10/19)
I've also been asked how do we mitigate the risk of these fires occurring in our alpine zones. Unfortunately, I don't think there is too much that can be done. Landscape scale fires in the alps occur during periods of extensive drought coupled with extreme fire weather. (11/19)
Science has highlighted that under such weather conditions fuel management has limited impact on the spread and severity of such fires. Moreover, fuel management strategies such as hazard reduction burns in this region is extremely difficult to safely conduct. (12/19)
Some have called for alpine grazing to be reintroduced despite scientific evidence highlighting this does not work at reducing the likelihood or severity of landscape fires & in fact has negative impacts on alpine ecosystems (13/19).
Grazing occurred in the Victorian alps right up to the 2003 fires. Yet 50% of it still got burnt. Grazing also occurred prior and during the previous major alpine fires of 1939, again it didn't prevent fire spread. (14/19)
The reality is climate change via increases in drought and extreme fire events, is almost certainly going to increase the number and severity of landscape fires in our alpine environments. (15/19)
My own scientific work (bit.ly/35x99WJ) suggests that this will be exacerbated in the alpine treeless zone via a positive feedback between climate, alpine shrubs and fire. (16/19)
Warmer temperatures are expected to double shrub growth rates, thereby increase fuel loads allowing for more frequent and severe fires. These fires provide the opportunity for shrubs to invade less flammable communities (grasslands) & thereby make them more flammable (17/19)
It is possible that if fires get too frequent shrubs won't be able to set seed. However, recent evidence I've accumulated suggests that shrubs are likely to set seed sooner in a warmer climate. Thus, they appear to be capable to adapt to shorter fire intervals. (18/19)
So in short, my greatest concern isn't necessary the impact of this single large scale fire (except for very vulnerable communities). Rather the longer term implications of climate change coupled with frequent/severe fire & increases in deer, horses, pig populations. (19/19)
