I have two conflicting beliefs:
1) A viral outbreak ranks among the most likely scenarios in which a quarter of humanity dies, above some stuff people pay way more attention to.
2) Surely *this* particular virus couldn't possibly turn out to be as bad as people think...
1) A viral outbreak ranks among the most likely scenarios in which a quarter of humanity dies, above some stuff people pay way more attention to.
2) Surely *this* particular virus couldn't possibly turn out to be as bad as people think...
There's sort of a way to make these two positions cohere.
It's unlikely that 1/4th of humanity will die. So though a viral infection ranks among the most likely causes of that scenario, it's very unlikely. The chance of this particular virus doing so much damage is even smaller.
It's unlikely that 1/4th of humanity will die. So though a viral infection ranks among the most likely causes of that scenario, it's very unlikely. The chance of this particular virus doing so much damage is even smaller.
But emotionally, there's still a tension.
I think we should allocate more resources to preventing a global pandemic, especially relative to other, better funded risks.
And yet, any particular pandemic doesn't feel *as* scary or urgent to me as it apparently does to others.
I think we should allocate more resources to preventing a global pandemic, especially relative to other, better funded risks.
And yet, any particular pandemic doesn't feel *as* scary or urgent to me as it apparently does to others.
