Thread by @dynamicsymmetry

This sentence is riding on a childishly oversimplified and deeply stupid understanding of “doom”, “failure”, “shock”. and “outrage”.

Let’s take em one by one, shall we?

https://twitter.com/richlowry/status/1223098842310037509

The notion that this was “doomed” to any particular end rests on the more foundational notion that anyone can have any total confidence in any particular outcome in a time when every day is a black swan event. Stop thinking in terms of doom, it’s not useful. Anything can happen.

We can only speak in terms of probabilities. Was an acquittal always very probable? Yeah. But that’s it. It was never certain. Nothing is ever certain. Therefore everything is worth trying, provided that the opportunity cost isn’t prohibitive.

Second: “Failure”. Oh my god where to even begin with this one, Rich. Where to even begin.

We’re years into this administration, if you haven’t overhauled your conception of success vs failure by now I’m not sure how to help you.

But given that nothing is ever doomed to failure in this brave new world I’m gonna give it a shot.

“Failure” is not “the direct on-paper effect of the on-paper thing I was doing didn’t happen”. Success and failure are far more complex with way more variables in play.

I’m going to let you in on a possibly hopeful secret: few things are ever complete failures. Most things *sort of* succeed. If not in first order effects, than in second and third order.

We don’t know what the second and third order effects of this will be.

I think there’s a very good chance that the second and third order effects of this, played right, will be devastating for Republicans across the board.

And you know what? That’s what a lot of us wanted out of this.

We wanted to make the Republicans hurt, and damage them further down the road, and those things were always going to be far easier and more likely than an acquittal. And therefore this was all extremely worth doing.

Can we be sure about those things happening? Uh, no? Go back to where I said we can’t be sure of anything and read it again. But because we can’t be sure of anything, anything might be worth a shot. That’s not being naive, it’s being realistic.

Have you ever tried to do anything really hard, Rich? Have you ever put yourself up against tough odds because you thought it would be worth it? Did you “fail”? If you did, and you didn’t throw yourself off a cliff in a fit of despair, you probably discovered something.

You probably discovered that you were measuring success too narrowly. You probably discovered that you gained things that made it worth it anyway, despite the “failure”. You probably realized that the real X is the friends we made along the way.

This is why one should never undertake anything really hard and maybe improbable without a clear-eyed understanding of what success is actually going to look like, and knowing that it might look like failure to an outside observer. That success and failure mean many things.

For a lot of people who wanted impeachment, it was *explicitly not about conviction and removal”, because we knew that while it was possible, it was unlikely. It was about a deeper moral principle.

This is why I say you’re being childish, Rich.

So let’s go to “shock”.

Rich. Rich rich rich rich rich. Oh, Rich. How are we in 2020 and you still don’t understand how shock works.

There is a significant and meaningful difference between “surprise” and “shock”. The latter can exist without the former. Knowing a punch to the face is coming doesn’t make your body go any less OKAY OW WHAT THE FUCK.

None of us are surprised by this, Rich.

As @AlexandraErin told me last night, there’s a special kind of nightmarishness in watching events unfold exactly as you expected and being unable to do anything to stop it.

And there’s a difference between expecting a thing and watching the horror of it right in front of you.

You can say on paper that you think something will probably happen, you can imagine the scenarios, but all of that pales next to the experience of beholding it.

I don’t think there’s any way to be ready for a punch like this.

I expected it to happen. I even expected it to happen as horrifically as it has and is. And yes, while I’m not remotely surprised, I’m still shocked, because somehow my soul isn’t yet dead.

And I’m feeling this level of shock because I understand the full awful implications of it, or I do to the extent that a puny human brain can grasp something so enormous with very incomplete information.

So let’s go to “outrage”.

What should we be feeling, Rich, those of us whose souls somehow yet live? What emotion is appropriate to this occasion?

If your answer is “numb nihilistic cynicism” than I’ll own that an argument can be made for that position, but it’s not one I personally hold.

We have to be outraged right now, or else what is the fucking point. We have to be shocked and we have to be outraged.

I think most of us knew that this was probably not going to end in first order success, that we decided it was worth doing anyway because there are many ways a thing can be worthwhile, and because we care, because right matters, we are now shocked and outraged.

Not surprised. Shocked and outraged.

Honestly if you don’t feel shock and outrage right now I’m worried for you.

I never really expected this to go any other way. I think it was worth it. I think it may yet be worth it in ways we can’t predict. We may look back on this as a major turning point. Who knows. Certainly not me.

And I’m shocked. And I’m outraged. You should be too, Rich.

You won’t be, because you’re Rich Lowry. But you should be. You all should be. Everyone should be. You, reading this, if you’re not shocked and outraged then find a way to be those things, because little Meg, you will need all your shock and outrage now.

Nothing you do is ever doomed to failure, especially not provided you understand and accept what it is you’re trying to do. Even when things go the way you expect, shock is reasonable. And when things are outrageous, outrage is the only way to feel.

The Rich Lowrys of the world would have every fight against oppression die in the cradle because of a lack of immediate “success”. I mean, of course they would, their own understanding of their success depends on it.

They want us to look at powerful people end tell ourselves that it’s not worth it, and then to become so cynical that we feel contempt for the people who try in spite of the odds and then grieve when they watch the nightmare they expected unfolding.

They say and believe childish, stupid things because they need those things true. Don’t fall for it. Don’t let them be true.

This was worth it. It was always worth it. It hasn’t failed. And you should be shocked and outraged.

And the Rich Lowrys of the world who act smug about the libs being triggered into feeling an appropriate feeling...

It’s always amusing to me how they look at us and see a lot of wimpy tears when instead they’re looking at this.

On paper, at the most basic level, this was about getting Trump out.

Plan hasn’t changed. This may have helped. Let’s go.

And if you need hope, remember how they were all spinning Kavanaugh as precisely this kind of huge loss for the left going into the midterms.

And then remember how the midterms ended up going.