Thread by @swardley

X : What's happening in UK?
Me : Nothing.
X : Protests?
Me : A bunch of people complaining about the influx of pigeons ... "stop the coo" etc?
X : Political protests?
Me : A bunch of people helping Dominic's play?
X : Are you going to be sensible?
Me : No, I'd hate to be alone.

X : Aren't you outraged?
Me : That's the point. You're supposed to get outraged. Then you look like the outraged. What's needed is not outrage but firm, solid action i.e. support Labour's proposal.
X : That's not going to happen.
Me : Then get used to a new Withdrawal Agreement.

X : Why a new Withdrawal agreement?
Me : What do you think is the point to prorogue Parliament? A new session, a drip feed of new "voter friendly" announcements and a new, ever so slightly modified WA?
X : Parliament won't vote for it.
Me : After going on protests about no deal?

X : What about a vote of no confidence?
Me : What about it? If it happens on day 1 and Parliament immediately supports a new interim Gov i.e. follows Labour's proposal then ok. Otherwise Boris will just ignore.
X : He can't, that would cause outrage.
Me : Isn't that the point?

X : How do you know this will happen?
Me : You don't. This game is all about providing as many options for yourself as possible and keeping the opponent off balance. That's what OODA is all about. How do you think Trump has been running circles around most of the DNC?

X : How can you fight?
Me :
Step 1 - stop getting outraged.
Step 2 - focus on stuff that matters to voters, build momentum around hope, stop burning energy chasing outrage.
X : What about no confidence?
Me : LibDems i.e. "Dominic's useful idiots" have messed that up.

X : What can the speaker do?
Me : John Bercow? He's a star, a real wild card. He could really mess up the play ... remember "‘any act or omission which obstructs or impedes either House of Parliament in the performance of its functions" ... can lead to a contempt debate.

X : Do you think Conservatives are on the back foot?
Me : Quite the opposite. Look at the diagram that I put above (NB it will be in flux) now read carefully what Green wrote -

https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1167002848749662209

... time to ratify / new deal / preferred option / overblown / calm voice

... now, of course, there will be numpties running saying the Conservative are all rattled, in disarray etc etc. If that was really the case, then some of the Cabinet who made strong statements against prorogation of Parliament would be resigning. They're not. Ask why?

"Tory grandee Ken Clarke: I'd be prepared to back Jeremy Corbyn as caretaker PM" - news.sky.com/story/tory-gra… ... finally. Someone who is switched on.

... ok, here's the LibDems big chance to stop being "Dominic's useful idiots".

Given Ken Clarke has now said he would support Labour's proposals with Corbyn as caretaker PM ... now is your chance Swinson to do the same. Early morning announcement and we could be game on.

X : How do you know the flow diagram is right?
Me : What, this one? It isn't right but it's not about being right, it's about saying there are numerous options (paths) and this will constantly change. OODA is about observing and reacting to a changing environment.

X : I don't understand.
Me : Everyone is getting outraged about "no deal", a lot of the recent build up of outrage was initiated with the leak of Operation Yellowhammer, then prorogue of Parliament etc. Have you considered the purpose isn't "no deal" but the build up of outrage?

X : Why outrage?
Me : Why? Outraged people don't think clearly, they spend their energy on outrage which means you can focus on stuff that matters so that neutral voters see a choice of "one side that is outraged" vs "one side that is considered and doing positive things".

X : Is this just a game of chicken?
Me : Partially. Johnson needs enough of a change to the WA to claim success, he needs Parliament to accept it over "No Deal" which both mean he also needs to look credible over "No Deal". Remember there are many moving parts.

X : Such as?
Me : Well, the brexit party. They'll go ballistic over a modified WA given the amount of energy spent declaring it a betrayal of democracy etc. There are many moving parts.

X : Do you think EU will give concessions to WA?
Me : Gosh, billion dollar question. You have many moving parts - the EC, the EU as a collective and individual nation states. Johnson doesn't need much, he just needs something if that is the actual game.
X : Is it?
Me : No idea.

X : So what do we know?
Me : Only what we can observe. They're making more positive announcements (police funding, school funding etc) and sparking outrage (yelowhammer, prorogue) ... anything else is speculation.

£3m fund to help UK nationals with EU forms - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… ... #flywheel

UK negotiators 'to step up tempo' on new deal talks - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… ... #Action

Spot on -> Johnson wants us to feel outrage. Let’s take back control – starting with ourselves - theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

X : You seem to be against "Stop the Coup"?
Me : In my view, the language is wrong. To prorogue Parliament at this time is an act which will clearly to some extent impede the House in the performance of its functions over brexit ... which begs a question ...

... was the purpose of prorogation of Parliament to impede? That's a question that the Speaker should investigate because it might touch upon contempt of House.

X : What do you expect in Parliament next week?
Me : I guess it will be an accelerating stream of positive messages (i.e. more funds for nurses, police, teachers, education, climate etc etc) combined with statements designed to provoke outrage and claims of action over a deal.

X : What do you think about the petition to not prorogue Parliament?
Me : You mean this - petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2691… ... sign it. Leave or Remain. This is not the way forward.

X : What do you think about the court challenge?
Me : @JolyonMaugham has done some great stuff i.e. UK can cancel decision. I've mixed feelings on this case because I'm not a lawyer and I don't know how it might impact any speaker driven contempt of house debate.

Gosh, Boris is really hammering on the considerate, clarity and action message in this one -

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1167420018260267010

... if you're getting disorientated by what is happening, just remember that's the whole point of OODA.

Multi-billion pound cash boost announced - bbc.co.uk/news/education… #flywheel

X : Are you against the protests?
Me : No, people should protest. I'm against the language. To prorogue Parliament in this manner clearly impedes the House in the performance of its function over brexit. But this is not a #coup. That word undermines the protest.

Sajid Javid pledges £400m further education funding - bbc.co.uk/news/education… #flywheel

Oh, this language is so depressing. #StopTheCoup etc -

https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1167755504996823041

... I imagine Dominic is sitting at home, smiling to himself and waiting for those voter polling numbers next week. How long before some numpty creates a Boris blimp?

In the midst of the "outage", Conservatives are pushing positive (#flywheel) and action orientated messages emphasising preparedness, consideration, calm and balance -

https://twitter.com/BenBrabyn/status/1167752988586364929

https://twitter.com/DanielKorski/status/1167752816619917314

... this is going to turn into a masterclass isn't it.

X : Why #flywheel
Me : It's all about momentum, an accelerating drip drip of positive messages creating that feeling of an overwhelming beneficial effect. With one hand you disorient opponents with outrage, with the other you create growing momentum around hope. See Trump.

X : But what if those messages aren't true?
Me : I can't think of examples where the messages turned out to be true in the end. MAGA etc. Doesn't stop them being used. The first step in fighting the game is to realise what game is being played.

So, if someone is trying to create outrage then don't get outraged. Instead point to the reason why the thing they're doing is wrong. Prorogation of Parliament isn't a #coup but it does stop our democratic representatives doing their job. It's contempt for the House.

If someone is trying to drip feed positive messages then point to the past record of the last ten years. Get people to ask why now, why so late, how are they going to fix the mess they've created and didn't they say this before? If they're just trying to bribe the public, say so.

If someone is trying to project action, being considerate, using a calm voice then explain that this is just projection. Point to the record, the state we're in, the uncertainty that they have created and how talk is cheap.

At the same time, create your own momentum, your own flywheel. Explain to people how things are going to be different, how you're going to give them the hope they need. Put your energy there and not in outrage.

X : The point of a protest is not necessarily the protest itself, but the alignment of loyalties to a cause i.e. Stop the War
Me : I know, I was there. But we were trying to stop a war and it was a war. The problem here, is this is not a #coup and that will be used against it.

Oh dear, Not only will a completely valid protest (against impeding the House to do its democratic function) be painted as the "outraged" because of the use of "coup" but it looks like it is already being hijacked online with lots of images like this -

https://twitter.com/SimonHanslmayr/status/1167781274221764610

X : How do you know they will hold an election?
Me : I don't. But each election, they rush out a set of voter friendly policies whilst declaring a new type of "caring" Conservative. This is rapidly followed by an old type of Conservative should they win -

https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1163486296184107008

As a rule of thumb, the more the phrase "there is no money" turns into "we've just found a forest of plentiful money trees" then the closer we are to a general election being called. In old language we used to call it bribery. The forest, of course, disappears shortly after.

i.e. what you'll hear is huge pots of money for police, education, health, pensioners, climate change and on and on including tax breaks and spaceships for all!

What you'll probably get is more public service cuts and reduced working benefits -

https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1163551121031479297

Tom Hardwood (hardly unbiased) going for a "stonking Tory majority" -

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1167201796567134208

... a modified WA play is possible. It can be stopped by adopting the Labour proposal on day 1 i.e. vote on no confidence with Corbyn as caretaker PM. Even Ken Clarke supports it.

Tricky bit is by the end of Monday we need to persuade a whole bunch of LibDem, Tory MPs and their supporters who claim to be about "remain" but are more "anti Corbyn" that if Ken Clarke thinks Corbyn is the better option then so should they.

I sort of hope on Monday that Jo Swinson will go ... "ok, we need to support Corbyn and the Labour proposal" ... and then it's game on. Time is running out though. I'm ever the eternal optimist. Maybe Ken Clarke could give Jo a call or something?

X: Who do you think is the better leader? Corbyn or Johnson?
Me : Interesting question as they need different styles to fit their environments. Hence Corbyn is more of a consensus-builder whereas Johnson is more my way or the highway.
X : Why do they need different styles?

Me : Different organisations, different cultures, different ways of working and a different set of checks and balances.

X : Thousands protest against a forced No Deal by an unelected Prime Minister. #StopTheCoup
Me : Oh god, we're going to end up looking like numpties. First, he is not unelected but he has no mandate. Second, this is not a coup. Third, you have no idea whether no deal is the goal.

X : Why?
Me : What happens next week when we have MPs sitting in the house. Do you realise how often "Where's the coup" is going to get replayed at us? Also, what happens when Boris has a modified withdrawal agreement? You've just forced your hand, you'll have to vote for it.

X : I thought you were for leaving the EU?
Me : I am for leaving. But leaving is a secondary issue compared to ending austerity. This is why you have leavers + remainers working together within Labour. I have no interest in the austerity agenda being continued.

Oh dear - Boris as the "idiot" -

https://twitter.com/SurreyAmps/status/1167833675838500866

... it might make you feel good but you should never, ever underestimate an opponent and I'm afraid Boris is anything but this.

MPs must pass a no-confidence vote in the government and trigger a general election - ft.com/content/9dbc78… ... when the FT and Ken Clarke tell you to back an immediate vote of no confidence and support Corbyn ... try listening. Time to change Jo Swinson, LibDems et al.

"It's me or Corbyn Chaos" -

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1167906324991991808

... If Boris can get through the first couple of days without a vote of no confidence then he can ignore it, despite any outrage. After which he can move onto the "It's the WA or No Deal" in the new session. The time is now.

... oh, and it goes without saying that the message is laced with both threat and bonanza ... expect a constant drip of "positive" messages next week over the newly discovered forest of money trees #flywheel

X : Did you go on a #StopTheCoup march?
Me : No. It's not a coup and the march should have been about stopping Boris riding roughshod over democracy rather than overturning the referendum result. Like lots of leavers I know, we signed the petition but kept clear of the march.

Hard hitting but fair (H/T @paul_shetler for the spot) -> Parliament had failed on Brexit long before this prorogation - theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

@paul_shetler The time is now, which is it ...
1) VoNC (vote of no confidence) with interim Gov headed by Corbyn (the preferred choice of Ken Clarke and the FT)
2) a Hobson's choice of Withdrawal Agreement vs No Deal.
3) Some other magical option aka DUI aka Dominic's Useful Idiots.

X : What about an "Other" option?
Me : That's option 3)
X : That's not fair
Me : Neither is life. At least this isn't a false binary i.e. the referendum -

https://twitter.com/swardley/status/744528231802494976

... we are, where we are. Express your opinion or let others express that opinion for you.

X : Could Boris go for an election next week?
Me : OODA
X : Eh?
Me : I would imagine all sorts of scenarios have been war gamed. They'll have a preferred path but what happens depends upon how the landscape changes. You have to assume there will be some misdirection as well.

X : Misdirection?
Me : Yep. Look for states of confusion sparking interest such as clear statements on one front but at the same time "rumours" of conflict i.e. "Fantastic relationship" + rumours of "anger" or "Clear common direction" + rumours of "rebellion" ...

... the purpose of misdirection is to "catch the eye" or in other words to keep you focused on stuff that really doesn't matter.

X : Does anyone actually think like this?
Me : I do which means I assume others do. Effective manoeuvre keeps the enemy off balance.

X : How do I learn about misdirection?
Me : Talk to a magician. Someone like @rufusevison ... they know all about it and how to trick the mind.

X: I thought you were in favour of leaving EU?

Me: I am but it is secondary compared to austerity. I'm not pleased by gameplay which might impede the function of the House, hence I'm not happy with reasons to prorogue Parliament. I also find calling it a #coup to be ridiculous.

Mostly, I am concerned on all sides with the manipulation of people through narrative, emotions and base psychology i.e. loss aversion, biases and techniques around belonging. A democracy should be about informed choice not manipulation or who is the better story teller.

X : What do you think to Cummings?
Me : I have respect for his capabilities, in the same way I have respect for Boris, another capable person. I don't agree with the methods nor the focus. I thought that May was at least trying to build consensus rather than railroad.

"to turn outrage into political energy" - theguardian.com/commentisfree/… - excellent editorial. Personally, we need to go beyond contempt of the House and introduce contempt of the public legislation.

Emphasis on chances of a deal rising, no waiting around (i.e. #action) and delivery on peoples' priorities through "most ambition spending round for a decade" (#flywheel ++), improved hospitals, billions to spend, improved education etc ..

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1168574982827446273

Nice touch with "Stop the Coup" crowd in the background, I suspect early statements in the House tomorrow will drop in the line "Where's the Coup?" ... also strong linguistic focus on the "We"- we want a deal, we have a clear vision, we are determined. Dominic must be smiling.

Also, the punchy "Let us get on with a peoples agenda", the characterisation of them (as in MPs) delaying this and the lovely "I don't want an election, you don't want an election" ... of course, that doesn't mean you won't get one. Well scripted. Doesn't hurt their cause.

The collective "We" bit is important (and there was an awful lot of that) because they're appealing to a sense of belonging in people. It's a necessary step if any modified WA loses because they can then move onto a People vs Parliament. Expect lots of "We" over the next week.

However, don't lose sight of how they are covering options here - preparing for a possible WA, preparing for a possible early election i.e. they are keeping options open whilst heading along a specific path. As gameplay goes, it's pretty good stuff.

X : Do you think Corbyn has a chance? Would another leader be better?
Me : Corbyn is playing it right, they need to get the VoNC over the line and onto a GE. I doubt any other leader since Attlee could have survived the continual barrage Corbyn has received over the years.

So, tomorrow is an important day. We need a good start. I do hope Jo Swinson kicks it off with an early announcement supporting a VoNC and Corbyn as interim PM. Fingers crossed. The past will all be forgotten, if they could just do this one thing right.

X : Why does it matter? The LibDems have few MPs.
Me : It matters because of symbolism. After the FT, after Ken Clarke, if Jo Swinson who vocally said Corbyn could not become temporary PM changes that position ... then that could trigger the momentum needed.

I suspect Dominic needs the game to play out this week with no real change and then it's golden. A quick VoNC and a quick vote of confidence in an alternative Gov could scupper this. It has to be quick though.

X : What if some Labour MPs don't support Corbyn?
Me : In a VoNC and vote of confidence in an alternative Gov? I can't imagine that would ever happen even in a broad church like Labour. It's almost unthinkable.

X : Won't Labour leavers support the brexit party?
Me : In a protest vote over the EU, sure. But in a GE, with the Brexit Party saying it wants a non aggression pact with the Conservatives? Most Labour leavers I know want an end to austerity not more of it to fund tax breaks.

Did "I don't want an election" become "back me or face 14 October election" in a few hours? Seriously? - theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

George Canning was the shortest-serving Prime Minister in the UK from April to August 1827. With a VoNC, an interim Gov and a GE ... there's a chance that Boris might end up with a legacy that will live for hundreds of years.

X : You don't like the "Stop the Coup" meme. What alternative would you suggest then?
Me : "Bring back May" would have at least been funnier.

Problem with "Stop the Coup" is that's too easy for others to point at sitting MPs and say "where's the coup?".

Boris speaking outside No.10 to deafening roars of "Bring back May" would have at least got the displeasure across regarding the actions with less room to counter.

X : Where is the "forest of plentiful money trees"
Me : Lol. Before the election it'll be in the back garden. After the election it'll have burned down in the Amazon.

It's too easy for people to think they're winning, if the PM sacked Cummings then you could start making such claims. Be careful what you read into this.

MP blasts "foul mouthed oaf" Cummings ->

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1169203346525364224

Listening to Boris over lunch, here we go - "what this country needs is sensible, moderate, progressive, conservative" - the considerate Conservatives. Painting everyone else as outrage, extreme, dither and indecision. Positioning the House vs the People.

The flywheel in action - more police, more money for NHS, for education, for the people ... an amazing forest of money trees that appeared just prior to an election after ten years of austerity. Pity we will discover it burned down in the Amazon shortly after the election.

Judge rejects parliament shutdown legal challenge - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla… ... not surprising. Unfortunately, it probably cuts off a contempt of House challenge now.

If you want to understand the game, take an hour to listen to @sajidjavid spending review. Feel that emotion rising, this sounds good, they're listening and then ... listen to @johnmcdonnellMP response. Feel that crash as you realise you were just fooled.
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a9…

... this is not just grubby electioneering. The language used, the words from "recovery to renewal" are designed to elicit a response, a feeling of hope and a forward thinking approach. A contempt for the house and the people.

Listening to the marvellous @jessphillips describe the "games" that are being played.

Ah, an appeal to the people from an "embattled" PM (see other messaging today) that wants to "update you" (humility) in order to help overcome a Parliament that is trying to stop / and or destroy the negotiation. You, the people should choose etc etc -

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1169681044573962240

...

... I suspect that this one "direct to the people" tweet will get more actual reach than all the debate in both Houses. This is full on trying to set the stage of people vs the parliament. Ouch.

X : What do you think about the Tory MPs who have had the whip removed.
Me : #Outrage ... I assume that's how I'm supposed to respond? A dictatorship of fear ruled by the evil Cummings ... #outrage #outrage ... is this what you're after? I find it a bit, meh.

X : What about Boris putting another early election motion next week?
Me : Ah, undermining the point of a VoNC. It's crafty for several reasons.

X : Why crafty?
Me : It takes the eye off the ball. Fixes it on Monday. Did I mention something about misdirection? I'm sure I must have. It's like the call from the "powerless" PM for the support and help of the "people". It's rather formidable.

X : Boris is losing. Lost the commons, the filibuster. It's over. No deal is dead.
Me : If Cummings can get through tomorrow without a rapid VoNC, approval of interim Gov or any other mishap then yes ... it's over but probably not in the way that you think.

X : What do you think will happen?
Me : It all depends upon actions but I suspect the path is still a modified WA vs no deal option for the house then an election.
X : No deal isn't an option.
Me : All I know is that you keep telling me this. Let us wait and see.

X : It will pass the house on Monday and go for Royal Assent.
Me : Confidently stated. We shall see what amendments happen in the HoL and how they deal with prerogative power.
X : It will be law, no deal is dead.
Me : You keep telling me this. I'm expecting #Outrage++ on Monday.

X : You don't think it will happen?
Me : No and I don't think we will get a GE either. I could easily be wrong and I don't mind fessing up to that. But I suspect on Monday we shall see exactly why the LibDems were Dominic's Useful Idiots. Should have gone with Labour's proposal.

X : I think you're wrong.
Me : I could easily be wrong. A change of circumstance, an individual actors actions ... a lot can happen and I'm guessing at the path. They will have war gamed many scenarios and I don't have the time to go digging / doing any deep analysis.

X : What would you do?
Me : I would have gone with Labour's proposal on day one. Today? I would be preparing for a GE against a revitalised Tory party with possible support by Brexit Party. I would war game how to deal with a WA+ and a long run up of "positive" announcements.

X : Do you think Boris' "bad day" is a pretence?
Me : The "humble PM trying to battle for the people reaching out to the people with humility to keep them informed about the forces that rally against them" scripted?

Well, at least he didn't start with "My loving people"

IMHO, a really smart move in a dangerous game. Labour really does seem to have a handle on this. They won't be supporting a GE on Monday. Need to prepare for that WA vs No Deal showdown and get the messaging off brexit ->

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1169733869395795968

i.e. The Tories are pretending to end austerity etc -

https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1169269475910332416

X : Do you not like any of the Tory policies?
Me : Oh, you misunderstand me. I'm Old Labour for which there are only modest differences with One Nation Tory. What I dislike is both manipulation of people and the illusion of One Nation for reasons of electioneering ...

... any faint resemblance to One Nation Tory seems to have been eviscerated from that Party among the expulsion of 21 MPs.

"bill intended to block no deal to become law" - theguardian.com/politics/live/… ... I'd prefer to wait until it has Royal Assent.

X : What do you think will happen on Monday?
Me : Let us wait and see.
X : Who will win?
Me : I don't know. The game is in play. Think of it like a grand chess match of Seamus Milne vs Dominic Cummings. They're both very capable. It's fascinating.

Notable -

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1170090027835170818

... emphasis on "constitutional crisis" and once again the bill described as law. Has it been given Royal Assent yet?

There are three pillars to our system - the legislative branch, the executive and the monarch.

"The legislative cannot abridge the executive of any power which it now has by law, without it's own consent"

... a critical principle and why consent is needed. Hence ...

... Royal Assent is also a negative power of "preventing wrong from being done" i.e. if the legislative branch abridges the executive of any power without consent then Royal Assent may not be given. It is one of many constitutional checks and balances ...

... that is how I understood it to be but then my understanding is likely to be very faulty as I only had a past passing interest in the topic.

I do wonder if Bercow, by stating the bill did not need Queen's Consent actually broke the constitution. We will find out soon enough.

Hence I ask, has the bill been given Royal Assent yet?

I keep thinking people see that as some sort of given but I'm not sure. I thought the point of Royal Assent was a duty on the Monarch to prevent wrong being done. Of course, I'm no constitutional lawyer.

X : Royal Assent is automatic.
Me : That's what everyone tells me.
X : Well, they're right.
Me : I'm not a lawyer but I'd hazard a guess that this Bill (publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill…) is going to end up in court, one way or another.

X : What's wrong with it? Specifics?
Me : I'm not a lawyer.
X : So you don't know?
Me : No. But having read it then I can guess.
X : Whats your guess?
Me : I'd guess that the problem is not that the PM "must seek" an extension but the PM "agrees" to the proposed extension.

X : What's wrong with that?
Me : "legislative cannot abridge the executive of any power which it now has by law, without it's own consent"
X : And?
Me : "Agrees" seems a lot like something that's going to need consent. Anyway, I'm not a lawyer and we will find out soon enough.

X : I'm not sure I agree.
Me : That's ok. I'm pretty sure the PM is going out of his way to make it clear that he does not consent to "agree" to any proposed extension. That's why I focused on those words. I am probably wrong but I suspect there is a problem there.

X : Do you think Boris will ignore it?
Me : It's not that simple. There are all sorts of complications. There's also what the intention of the bill is.
X : To stop no deal.
Me : On the surface yes. But there's another potential side to this regarding stopping prorogation.

Wow ... we are certainly in strange waters. Amber Rudd resigns Conservative whip -

https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1170429481879842817

There is a line in @carolecadwalla opinion - theguardian.com/politics/2019/… - that is worth noodling on.

The “noise”, the anecdotes and the tall Westminster tales are flares he sends up before he drops his bombs somewhere else entirely

Whilst I certainly respect the application of craft such as OODA and the techniques being used, there is a fundamental problem here.

This problem was highlighted by Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, Marquis De Condorcet - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquis_d… ..

... "if each member of a voting group is more likely than not to make a correct decision, the probability that the highest vote of the group is the correct decision increases as the number of members of the group increases" ...

We often talk about it in the Wisdom of the Crowd but the Crowd can equally be daft.

It is why In order for Democracy to function then it requires not only consent but informed debate.

The techniques being used undermine that informed debate. They are techniques of propaganda.

If you want to fix this then you need to make "informed consent" a statutory right and the act of breaking it a criminal offence whether political campaigning or marketing a product or a CEO put some shine on a company's future. You'd end up with a lot of storytellers in jail.

You would need to think very carefully about this though. Is the act of "creating a better story to sell something" one of informed consent or not? What about that factory made meal with a picture of some person preparing it for you in a countryside cottage on the packaging?

I often hear people say that old line that "people can't handle the truth" by which they mean "other" people, not themselves.

I take a different view - informed consent, transparency and truth are essential for equality and fairness within a democratic system.

But I also understand how informed consent, transparency and truth would undermine the existing systems of control.

You can't deal with these techniques of propaganda without removing many of the existing mechanisms of control. And the existing system won't like that.

Javid says government will 'obey the law' but not ask for Brexit extension - theguardian.com/politics/video…

... well, no surprise. It does imply that the Gov seems to think the no Brexit deal either broke the constitution or has some wiggle room.

"likely to be a court challenge to legislation that holds up the UK leaving the EU" - theguardian.com/politics/2019/… ... I can think we can almost assume that as a given.

X : Could the Gov call a VoNC on itself?
Me : It's a possibility, backed with messaging of "We're confident, but if no-one is willing to call an election, we will do it for you" ... they'd probably vote against, I doubt their play is the VoNC but they'll keep their options open.

Keep a close eye on the messaging. I suspect the Conservative machine will be focused on projecting a message of calm, calculating, confident, bold, decisive in the face of adversity whilst portraying others as panicked, reactionary, outraged, unsure and indecisive.

I suspect the pressure will heat up next week, starting on Monday ... well, that's what I would be planning for. It is certainly going to be interesting.

Ah, @lewis_goodall questions the possibility of withholding Royal Assent -

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169206486087733249

... it's going to be very interesting.

X : Why do you think no deal bill will end up in court?
Me : Dominic Raab said it might - theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
X : Yes but you said this before.
Me : I'm not a lawyer, I don't know.
X : Do I have to ask you to guess?
Me : Yes.
X : Guess.
Me : Ok ...

Me : Go read the bill. I suspect the problem is not that the PM "must seek" an extension but "agree".
X : And why is that a problem?
Me : You need consent to abridge executive power. I'm not sure it has been given, in fact the PM has gone out of his way to say he doesn't consent.

X : The speaker said Queen's Consent doesn't apply.
Me : I know. But that doesn't mean Gov agrees with that. Then you may have an issue of Royal Assent.
X : What's the issue?
Me : I don't know, you'd have to talk to a constitutional lawyer.
X : Can you guess?
Me : Ok then ...

Me : I had to look this up. But anyway, I've scribbled some marks on it. I always thought Royal Assent was a check / balance on legislature abridging executive power without consent i.e. a negative, a right of "preventing wrong from being done"
X : Is it?
Me : Guess on a guess

X : What does that mean?
Me : It means, go talk to a Constitutional lawyer. I'm a layperson with a vague past interest and no idea of what I'm actually talking about. I'm interested because these are really strange waters we're in.

X : So you think it might end up in court?
Me : That's what Raab said but then maybe that's the point.
X : Eh?
Me : I've got this vague idea that any bill waiting for assent was given it if prorogation of Parliament occurred. So, the bill's purpose might be just to delay it.

X : That seems far fetched.
Me : Well, these are wild guesses. Go talk to a constitutional lawyer and find out or do what I'm doing.
X : Which is?
Me : Watch it play out. It's fascinating. There will be many turns and moves to come yet.

X : Do you think the Queen will get dragged into this?
Me : I very much doubt it. Remember declarations that they'll take it to court, they'll ignore it are all going to cause outrage and keep people focused on the bill whilst Cummings keeps focused on building political support.

Ah, the cunning idea of a modified Withdrawal Agreement -

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1170977845172166656

... all they need is a constant flywheel of positive announcements, outrage in opponents to keep them distracted and ... wait ... hang on.

X : But what about the Brexit Party?
Me : After weeks (and many more weeks to come) of outrage, agreement on a modified WA and a huge sigh of relief, a flywheel on constant positive announcements ... what is Farage going to do? Outrage when we're leaving?

X : I thought a Tory / Brexit Party alliance was on the cards.
Me : Like everything else, it's an option. The game changes depending upon the skill of the players and keeping options open is almost always to your advantage. We don't know yet where this will end.

X : Can you guess?
Me : Well, I suspect there's a bit of pleasurable malice to Cummings. If he gets his way then Farage will be left out in the cold shouting like a sad lonely man. A bit of payback for the referendum claims. Of course, individual actors actions and all that.

X : Do you think the Conservatives will win?
Me : This is a game between two players and Labour is playing a good game. Nothing is certain, there are many twists and turns to come.

X : What about the LibDems?
Me : I feel sorry for the local activists. Must be pretty galling watching these "celebrity" MPs joining and snapping up plum seats especially if you don't agree with their past voting records / values.

Anyway, it's Monday and ...

1) Parliament is going to be prorogued tonight.
2) PM will refuse to request extension

.... outrage!

Well, Corbyn is right, it's disgraceful manipulation rather than informed debate.

Let's update the flowchart. Next step. Queen's speech.

X : Did you see the bill got Royal Assent.
Me : Yes
X : So, it's law.
Me : It can still be challenged.
X : But if Gov refuse to send a letter?
Me : Well, they need to seek by 19th October. Does it say what postal class to use? International shipping can be 10 to 21 days.

X : You are kidding?
Me : Well ... games are games.

Anyway ... early election vote now, no deal bill has royal assent etc. Exciting stuff.

Boris twice now in this speech emphasises that he "won't ask for a delay" .. now he is talking about "our masters the people" ... here we go, Parliament vs the People.

Corbyn spells it out that Boris has indicated that he does not intend to ask for an extension.

... Division! .... oh, I'll miss the speaker when he leaves. Anyway, time to get some sleep. We all know the result anyway.

Well, next step the Queen's speech.

A really interesting comment, "outrage is not one way" -

https://twitter.com/TomLawler571/status/1171310854702358528

.... now, go and observe what is happening. It is almost all entirely one way. That's the purpose and there will be much more to come.

Try to avoid the outrage. There are plenty of good reasons to be angry, not least of which are the 120,000 excess deaths caused by austerity, the 14 million people in poverty or the recent electoral bribes which don't even cover the cuts.

Labour would offer 'credible Leave option' - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-496465… ... good leadership by Corbyn.

Alas - "Pro-Remain Labour activists are also hoping the party's conference later this month will commit the leadership to backing Remain under all circumstances"

At some point, some of these activists must surely realise that whilst remain has some chance of winning a referendum, it has next to no chance of winning an election.

Outstanding speech by @jeremycorbyn at TUC - ... "A society of hope and inclusion, not poverty and division" ... fabulous stuff.

Repealing the Trade Union Act 2016 in 100 days? Oh, the establishment is going to throw everything it can at Labour.

Oh my word - theguardian.com/politics/2019/… ... well, that could throw a spanner in Dominic's play. If Parliament is recalled then there is time for the VoNC and the interim Gov i.e. Labour's original play.

Downing Street claim Scottish judges are biased - thenational.scot/news/17895085.… ... oh dear, that is reactive and slapdash messaging. Obviously this scenario hadn't been war gamed. They are off their path. Whoops ...

... what we need now is Jo Swinson to declare that the LibDems will support Labour's proposal for a VoNC and interim Gov under Corbyn (as per FT and Ken Clarke) once Parliament is recalled. If the opponent is off balance, get round that loop faster and keep them there.

After which, the blows can keep coming ... contempt of house debate etc. Gosh, and we thought things couldn't get more exciting.

Good. I do like a lot of what @tom_watson says but @jeremycorbyn is spot on -> Corbyn rejects call by Tom Watson for Labour to fully back remain - theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

X : Are you in favour of leaving EU.
Me : Yes.
X : No deal.
Me : I think EEA docked to EFTA is good compromise but I'm not against no deal. Labour party position is against no deal and seek its own deal, that's fine with me. I prefer to leave and tackle austerity.

X : Won't no deal be a disaster?
Me : Depends upon who you talk to and who is in charge. A neoliberal fantasy no deal won't be good for workers' rights.
X : What about food?
Me : Depends upon who you talk to ... some claim it will be an apocalypse, others that it'll be minimal.

X : Operation Yellowhammer?
Me : Worst case scenario planning is worst case scenario planning. The civil service will have been preparing. Unfortunately, even if the actual impact is minimal, you'll probably get some local impacts from panicked hoarders.

X : Hoarding?
Me : Yes, a self fulfilling feedback loop where a bunch of moderately well off people panic about the impact to themselves and hoard large quantities of goods (panic buying) which causes supply issues which are then pointed at by those same people as justification.

X : Do you think that will happen?
Me : At some local level I would imagine some disruption possibly followed later of by a mass of donations to food banks.
X : Why?
Me : The righteous often like to feel righteous even when they are the original cause of the problems.

X : What about claims of deaths from leaving?
Me : There are estimated to be 120,000 excess deaths caused by austerity over the last decade. I don't remember the same huge demonstrations against that and protests against tax cuts. We need to tackle austerity.

X : You think the impact will be minimal then?
Me : I don't know what the impact will be. I do know that some are claiming doom and some are claiming nothing. I imagine it will be neither.

X : So, it could cause a crisis?
Me : I think there are some worst case scenarios which any responsible civil service will have prepared for ... wait ... operation Yellowhammer ... they have prepared for.

"It follows that the prorogation was ultra vires. In my opinion the
court should pronounce a declarator to that effect" - socialsecuritychamber.scot/docs/libraries… ... oh my, this is gearing up for a parliamentary meltdown -

The Supreme Court appeal is going to be a very interesting showdown. If they uphold that verdict and rule the prorogation ultra vires then ... well.

If they rule prorogation unlawful ... then what? Parliament reforms? No Queen's speech? No modified WA? It could be very messy for BoJo etc. Good time for VoNC and interim Gov. Big change to constitution.

If they overturn and rule it lawful expect howls of outrage.

It's all exciting stuff. A dramatic set of events.

Gosh, since I'm in a disco mood of music this evening ... I can't help myself ... it's "electrifying" -

With all the AI deep fake capability about, someone could have some real fun here.

Anyway, back to the matter at hand. If they rule prorogation legal, don't get outraged but instead focus on getting the flywheel going i.e. talk about the positive proposals of Labour etc.

You can bet your bottom dollar that Cummings will be focused on building up support.

X : How do you think it's going in the Supreme Court?
Me : I've no idea. Been busy with others things.
X : Do you think they will overturn prorogation?
Me : I suspect that's unlikely but you never know. Wait and see.
X : Why unlikely?
Me : It's a political not a legal choice.

X : And?
Me : Well, I'd hazard a guess that the court will rule it doesn't have jurisdiction. But you never know, wait and see.
X : What happens then?
Me : A mix of outage as we inch closer to the Queen's speech?

X : You've been quiet on politics.
Me : It's all too noisy. Court ruling was interesting. Lots of outrage manufactured since. Paths seem to be a VoNC plus interim Corbyn Gov or another prorogue and a Queen's speech. The wild card is a parliament vs the people style election.