Thread by @econnaturalist

My UNDER THE INFLUENCE: PUTTING PEER PRESSURE TO WORK was published Jan 28 by Princeton University Press. In this thread, I’ll describe the single issue that appears to have sparked greatest interest among audiences on my current West Coast book tour. 1/
@PrincetonUPress @a_f13nd

It’s the long-running controversy about “conscious consumption,” the term for voluntary individual restraint in energy usage—such as driving a hybrid car, or eating meat less often, or taking fewer plane trips. 2/

Many economists and some climate advocates object that conscious consumption is at best a distraction, and possibly even counterproductive, to the extent that it steers attention away from the major public policy changes needed to parry the climate threat. 3/

As David Wallace-Wells describes this concern in THE UNINHABITABLE EARTH, for example, 4/

My own longstanding skepticism about conscious consumption rested on the seemingly intractable logic of the economist's free-rider problem: Because they entail costs and have only negligible environmental impact, private environmental actions are individually irrational. 5/

I continue to believe that conscious consumption alone can’t solve the problem. But my study of behavioral contagion has completely changed my view of its efficacy. For two related reasons, I now believe that voluntary personal steps are an essential part of the path forward. 6/

The first and less important of these reasons is that the environmental impact of seemingly small voluntary actions is far greater than is commonly believed. Adoption of Toyota’s Prius hybrid is a case in point. 7/

The Prius spewed less CO2 into the atmosphere than other cars, but because even bigger reductions in CO2 could be achieved by buying a cheaper car and using the savings to purchase carbon offsets, I once advised environmentally conscious friends against buying a hybrid. 8/

But I now see that the direct effect of owning a Prius are only a small part of its total impact. Buying one affects not only your own emissions, but also the emissions of others whose car choices are influenced by your own. 9/

That Prius purchases were contagious is evidenced by the fact that it far outsold the competing Honda Civic hybrid. The difference? The Prius had a distinctively shaped body, whereas the Civic hybrid looked virtually identical to its internal combustion engine counterpart. 10/

But couldn’t we have done even more for the environment by buying carbon offsets? Perhaps, in the short run. But because no one sees carbon offset purchases, they aren’t contagious. And in the long run, hybrids were also a useful step on the path to plug-in electric cars. 11/

Solar panel installation is another vivid example of contagion in the environmental domain. Google’s Project Sunroof shows aerial photos of your neighborhood in which houses with solar panels are identified with red dots. Note the location of houses that have them. 12/

They are almost always contiguous with others that also have red dots. Houses without red dots are similarly clustered. Studies estimate that the short-run effect of a 1% increase in the installed base leads to an almost 1% increase in the neighborhood adoption rate. 13/

But contagion doesn’t stop there. Each new solar panel installation affects decisions by friends and relatives elsewhere, and so on. The growing installed base also accelerates the ongoing decline in the cost of renewable energy generation. 14/

My failure to appreciate the extent to which behavioral contagion amplifies the effects of conscious consumption is one of the two reasons mentioned earlier for my skepticism about voluntary conservation measures. But it is the less important of the two. 15/

Parrying warming’s treat will still require dramatic changes in public policy, yes. But studying the power of behavioral contagion has persuaded me that conscious consumption may promote progress on the policy front in ways I had not previously appreciated. 16/

Installing solar panels, buying electric cars, or adopting more climate-friendly diets doesn’t just increase the likelihood of others taking similar steps; it also deepens our sense of identity as climate advocates. As Aristotle realized, “We are what we repeatedly do.” 17/

Taking such steps increases our likelihood of supporting candidates who favor strong climate legislation, of writing checks to their campaign committees, and of knocking on doors to help them get elected. It has certainly had that effect on my family. 18/

Keeping warming at bay will require a massive social movement, one that defeats climate obstructionists resoundingly at the polls. But such a movement becomes far more likely when personal consumption choices are more widely shaped by climate concerns. 19/

At age 14, @GretaThunburg may have hoped, but probably didn’t expect, that her nascent campaign to rescue the planet would have major impact. But contagion is unpredictable. Even the smallest spark can ignite a firestorm. 20/

When my first book was published in early 1985, I hoped AND expected that it would have a major impact. By the autumn months of that year, I thought, bills incorporating my policy recommendations would be wending their way through Congress. Of course, that didn’t happen. 21/

With the publication of each additional book, I continued to hope, but no longer expected, that it would make a difference. And in each case, little happened. But no regrets, for without having written those books, I couldn’t have written UNDER THE INFLUENCE. 22/

Because the stakes are so high, my hopes for this book are more elevated than ever. Nothing could please me more than to see it encourage the changes we need to make going forward. But I expect to continue plugging away in the likely event that this doesn’t happen. 23/

The power of behavioral contagion converts your own small environmental steps into a lottery ticket. They might not matter, but they might also be the tiny ember that sparks a prairie fire. 24/

Or so I argue in UNDER THE INFLUENCE: PUTTING PEER PRESSURE TO WORK. 25/
@350
@sunrisemvmt
amazon.com/dp/B07XKFLWCT/…