Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Possible battleground states this year

AZ (r) +3.55%
CO (d) +4.91%
FL (r) +1.2%
GA (r) +5.13
IA (r) +9.41%
ME (d) +2.96%
ME2 (r) +10.29%
MI (r) +0.23%
MN (d) +1.52%
NE2 (r) +2.24%
NV (d) +2.42%
NH (r) +0.37%
NM (d) +8.21%
NC (r) +3.66%
OH (r) +8.13%
OR (d) +10.98%
PA (r) +0.72%

TX (r) +8.99%
VA (d) +5.32%
WI (r) +0.77%

What we know. Per @parscale Trump has strong ground games in 17 states. There are a possible of 18 states which means that OR is probably the only possible battleground state that Trump doesn't have a ground game in yet.

We also know from a politico article that the Dems are not contesting Iowa

politico.com/news/magazine/…

We also know that Yang was told the Dems will not contest OH. This makes sense as the country moves right those two states appear out of play for the Dems. If this logic is correct then they most likely will also give up on TX.

On the flip side the Trump campaign is stating they intend to campaign in NM and are making some noise about OR. In other words, the Dems are giving up on the (+8-+10) Trump states while Trump is going after the (+8-+10) Dem states.

This tells you that regardless of what the fake media tells you the country has shifted towards Trump.

This means that the Dems will be forced to defend states like
MN
VA
CO
ME
NV
NH

The Trump campaign will be defending
MI
PA
WI
FL
NC
AZ

Maybe GA but probably out of play.

Instead of following the fake polls this year watch which states the candidates are campaigning and putting money and effort into. If for some reason the Dems return to IA or OH Trump might be in trouble. If Trump is campaigning in NM and OR, Trump is in very good shape.

Most of the time and effort will be in NH, PA, WI, MI, MN, AZ, FL, NC, NV, CO, ME, NE2, VA, ME2 and maybe GA

The Dems might try to go into TX and GA to drain funds from the Trump campaign but both should be safe GOP states.

Also consider that there will be big Senate races in ME, AZ, CO, NC, MI, GA, which will come into play as the Trump campaign and Dems candidate push to control the Senate. The Dems best pick up potential for Senate is CO, AZ and ME. The GOP best pick ups are MI and AL.

**Sorry if I didn't make it clear the states and % presented in this thread are 2016 election results. *** Which is where you should start when designing your election viewing strategy and then fine tune due to "polls" etc. The media and their fake polls are not a good source.

*Update It was pointed out I mistyped the NH result. The Dems won it in 2016 not the GOP. The % is the same