President @realDonaldTrump mentioning his approval poll numbers within his recent approval range seems to send mainstream media into a fact-checking frenzy.
What their “polling analysts” NEVER seem to focus on is survey basis & survey party weighting.
So let’s help them.
1/6
What their “polling analysts” NEVER seem to focus on is survey basis & survey party weighting.
So let’s help them.
1/6
Is a survey of All Adults, or Registered Voters, or Likley Voters? Those key metrics are symbolized here on @RealClearNews as either an A, RV or LV.
Rasmussen Reports always uses Likely Voters based polls for all political subjects year round.
2/6
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/p…
Rasmussen Reports always uses Likely Voters based polls for all political subjects year round.
2/6
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/p…
Party weighting is also key. Our Likely Voters based polls are weighted D37, R33, Ind30, or D+4.
We check these weight assumptions every 2 weeks against the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index using our proprietary Daily Consumer Confidence Index.
3/6
rasmussenreports.com/public_content…
We check these weight assumptions every 2 weeks against the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index using our proprietary Daily Consumer Confidence Index.
3/6
rasmussenreports.com/public_content…
How other pollsters determine & how frequently they benchmark their own party weightings is for them to say.
Be sure to look for it!
And we are not alone in showing higher Likely Voters based approval results for @realDonaldTrump
4/6
zogbyanalytics.com/news/888-trump…
Be sure to look for it!
And we are not alone in showing higher Likely Voters based approval results for @realDonaldTrump
4/6
zogbyanalytics.com/news/888-trump…
And finally, for non-political type questions, we use our All Adults based screen. It is currently weighted D35, R28, Ind37, or D+7.
It’s also tested for correlation against the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index every 2 weeks.
5/6
data.sca.isr.umich.edu
It’s also tested for correlation against the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index every 2 weeks.
5/6
data.sca.isr.umich.edu
So - with our Likely Voters polls at D+4, our All Adults polls at D+7, our last 2016 Pres matchup showing Hillary Clinton winning the Popular Vote by the exact margin she won it by (D+2) & Gallup now weighted R+4, aren't we ... a Democratic pollster?
6/6
6/6
Bonus Example:
Example of a stone cold loser of polling analytics? Anyone holding up the hyper-partisan Nate Silver as objective or skilled. Like this loser does here -
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Example of a stone cold loser of polling analytics? Anyone holding up the hyper-partisan Nate Silver as objective or skilled. Like this loser does here -
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Bonus Example 2:
CNN: "Sanders claimed victory in Nevada and said his coalition would "sweep this country.""
CNN: "Sanders claimed victory in Nevada and said his coalition would "sweep this country.""
Bonus Example 3:
"Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden"
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-k…
"Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden"
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-k…
Bonus Example 4:
Our nominee for America's very first Minister of Truth
Washington Post Polling Analyst - "THIS is how it works!"
Our nominee for America's very first Minister of Truth
Washington Post Polling Analyst - "THIS is how it works!"
