In NV, Sanders increased support among Latinos, winning more than half their votes. (Better/more significant than in IA and NH, because of #, % of Latinos in NV). But goal isn't to win 50 or 75 or 100% in Dem primaries. It's to win more than 70 % in November. Thread ... 1/18
2/18 His success is likely to carry over into TX, CA, FL, and other states with large Latino populations. That's good news for him, but work remains to be done if he's to win in November. Here are some historical data to keep in mind.
3/18 Since Nixon’s re-election in 1972, almost every Republican candidate has won between a quarter and a third of the Latino vote.
4/18 There are 3 exceptions: Ford in 1976 (post-Watergate), Dole in 1996 (post-Prop 187, post-IIRIRA), and George W. Bush, who won 40 percent or more in 2000 and 2004.
5/18 Democratic candidates since 2000 have won more Latino support in the primaries than Sanders so far, yet have gone on to lose the general election. This is because the democratic primary electorate is different than the general electorate. Let's look at NV as example.
6/18 In 2000, Gore won Nevada caucus w 88 percent of vote (and strong support from Latinos), compared with Bradley’s 2.2 percent. He lost to Bush in NV (and nationally) in November, 49.5 to 46.
7/18 In 2004, Kerry won Nevada caucus w 65 percent of vote (and strong support from Latinos), compared with Dean’s 17.2 percent, and Edwards’s 10.7 percent. He lost to Bush in NV (and nationally) in November, 50.5 to 48.
8/18 The reverse is also true, that Democratic candidates have won less Latino support than Sanders so far, yet have gone on to win the general election. Again, let's look at NV.
9/18 In 2008, Clinton won NV caucus w 51 percent of vote (and strong support from Latinos), compared with Obama's 45 percent, Edwards's 4 percent. Obama won nomination, beat McCain in NV (and nationally) in November, 55 to 43.
10/18 In 2016, Clinton won NV caucus w 53 percent of vote (and strong support from Latinos), compared w Sanders's 47 percent. Clinton beat Trump in NV in November, 48 to 45.5, but lost the election.
11/18 First thing to say about these data points is that I’m not 100 % sure that history is our best guide, because 2016 scrambled much we thought we knew. So, I think we need to be humble about what we think we know and don’t know, as @jbouie has said.
12/18 Second, much has changed in NV since 2000: 9/11, unending wars, financial crisis, climate change, Af Am President, racist President, and a pop. that is now 30% not 20% Latino (same true in other places). These things help explain shift in NV towards Dems.
13/18 Still, a look at difference between caucus/primary and general election results over the past 20 years makes clear there's a long way to go, and work remains to be done by all, even Sanders, between now and November. No doubt they're already thinking about this work.
14/18 Re: "socialism" in particular--which I wrote about in @nytopinion last week--this will be Trump's main attack against nominee Sanders. Attacks have already begun, and they could resonate with Latino voters beyond CU and VZ voters in FL that Trump appeals to directly...
15/18 Including Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans who've developed ideas about their "anti-socialism" since the allegedly Communist-inspired plots that were the Mexican Revolution and bombings by Puerto Rican independentistas in the 1950s.
16/18 I agree w/ @GregGrandin that best play for Sanders isn't to "shy away" from past support for the "Latin American social rights/socialist tradition." He may even have to lean in--explaining it as part of his career-long support for access to health care, education, etc.
17/18 I think and hope that one thing this election will lead to is a more nuanced understanding of the "Latino vote," and how it has been shaped by U.S.-Latin American relations.
18/18 Despite 50 years of both parties talking about importance of Latinos in U.S. politics, so much remains unknown and misunderstood.
