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Actually it was pretty impressive! Bernie is now looking like a majority nominee rather than a plurality nominee!
In Nevada, Bernie faced an even *more* crowded field than he did in New Hampshire and Iowa, and yet this time he decisively beat the field.
(But just to be clear, it looks like Bernie got 33% of first-round votes, and 46% of County Convention Delegates. Still, a much more commanding victory than IA or NH.)

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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/Today's @bopinion post is about the economy of (arguably) the most important country in the world: India.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/India's economy looked like it was in the fast lane, but there has been a rapid deterioration.
3/In fact, things may now be even worse than that graph suggests.
hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/…
Read 14 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Remember, these charts include health insurance premiums in "health costs", but don't include employer health insurance premium contributions in "wages". This is a problem.
Health care costs are a huge problem but they're not so big that they're actually reducing real wages overall.

Here are real median personal income, real median weekly earnings for full-time employees, and real hourly compensation.
Those three measures are all different, but together they give a good indication of individual income after the costs of health care, housing, education, transport, and a bunch of other things are taken into account.

None has gone up by nearly enough. But all have gone up.
Read 4 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
More like American Erdogan or American Lula TBH
Or maybe American Duterte vs American Clement Attlee
TBH I just hope it's not American Franco vs American Largo Caballero
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Talia Lavin
@chick_in_kiev
this debate is the most awkward thing ive ever seen and i once saw a video of myself dancing
anyway i love #bernie im sorry
“is anyone concerned about having a democratic socialist at the top of the ticket?”
(very long pause)
bernie: “im not”
Read 37 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW I wrote about "electability" and the 2020 Democratic primary for the paper this week. We combined political science and polling data and found that a moderate Dem with strength among working-class whites has the best chance against Trump.

<THREAD>

economist.com/united-states/…
The 2020 election is likely to be close. Trump's approval rating & GDP growth suggest that he'll win about 49% of the two-party vote, per our modeling. He's clearly competitive, especially when Democrats need to win the popular vote by about ~2.5pts to win the electoral college.
So the "electability" of the candidates is a particular concern for Democrats.

So what do we know about who is more likely to win general elections?
Read 13 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
I ask you to get a better team that can frame your strategy in 45secs max and is about what you can do for voters, not about folks you think don't like you when it's actually Liz Warren and her proven policy they fear.
What #Bernie should've done is show how his signature issues have been incorporated into the Zeitgeist. This looks old, with clips from debates he lost. Plus SURELY there's a CEO who's not Jewish? This has an unpleasant " rich Jews run the world" vibe he should have seen.
2/
Also, none of these people even says they hate #Bernie. These are such tepid call outs when he claims they "hate" him. They have called out Liz #Warren viciously, but not Sanders, which makes this feel even more irrelevant. And Greenspan retired in 2006! Why is he in here?
3/
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
NEW from me: What if everyone had voted in 2016? We have quantified the left-leaning nature of non-voters and project that Hillary Clinton would be president today under such a scenario. But the findings run deeper than this headline. THREAD 1/14 economist.com/graphic-detail…
2. We first thought up this piece as a simple addition to our annual "World If" magazine supplement, but it soon ballooned into something larger. It seemed that nobody had suggested a satisfactory answer to the question of what would happen in US politics if everyone turned out.
3. We hypothesized that the US would drift more to the left under universal voting, but by how much? Though non-voters are more diverse & thus left-leaning than voters, there are plenty of working-class whites who don't turn out either. Our math says they make up ~50% of adults.
Read 15 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, moderate Democrats seem to be more popular with general election voters after all. 53eig.ht/30HJdqf
Bernie's polling is decent, but that he does the 2nd-best against Trump (after Biden) is partly an artifact of name recognition. For instance, Buttigieg polls worse than Bernie vs. Trump. But Buttigieg actually has better favorables than Bernie among voters who know who he is.
It's certainly a messy relationship. Some liberals, including Bernie, have decent (though not great) polling. Some moderates don't. But favorability ratings, which allow voters to say they don't recognize a candidate, are a better way to assess this stuff than head-to-head polls.
Read 3 tweets
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
Out today! My new, chart-rich paper on trade, globalization & US public opinion:
cato.org/publications/f…
So now a thread on why I wrote this paper - the data for which were surprisingly difficult to gather (thanks, @pewresearch, @Gallup, @ChicagoCouncil, etc for the help!) - and what it reveals /2
The malleability of US public opinion on trade is something I first noticed years ago (and briefly discussed in this paper from 2011: cato.org/publications/f…). Trade polls have long fluctuated depending on politics, rhetoric & the economy. /3
Read 20 tweets

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