Thread by @Peoples_Pundit

1. Don't think people appreciate how much trouble @JoeBiden is likely in right now.

With the exception of a few polls w/ less accurate records in Iowa, @BernieSanders is ahead. He also leads in New Hampshire, and definitely will in it on February 11 if he takes the Iowa on 3rd.

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 2. Then, we have Nevada on February 22, which he nearly carried last time against Hillary Clinton who had stronger minority support than Joe Biden.

By February 29, Biden's dominance in South Carolina could be significantly diminished.

Come Super Tuesday on March 3...

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 3. Come Super Tuesday on March 3, he will likely take Maine, Massachusetts and definitely Vermont.

If Joe Biden holds his Southern advantage, a BIG if considering he could faces big losses before, it could be washed by an embarrassing loss to Bernie in California.

That means..

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 4. That means Bernie would have wins in the West, Midwest, and Northeast, while Biden would only be able to tout the support of Southern Democrats.

Hillary Clinton was a far stronger competitor and had an argument for the superdelegates.

What argument will Joe Biden make?

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 5. Also important to remember is that @JoeBiden is just not that good of a fundraiser outside of K Street and Wall Street.

Those donors max out, folks. Suffering repeated losses before South Carolina will definitely dry up the well.

He cannot afford poor showings in IA and NH.

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 6. For Hillary Clinton in 2016, her ability to win most of the Midwest and Big West like California was never in doubt. She still lost Michigan to @BernieSanders, and I'm not sure @JoeBiden will fair better. Bernie now leads in several polls in California, a lead that's widening.

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 7. Again, Biden wins in Mississippi and Missouri on March 10 will mean what against losses in Michigan, Washington and potentially North Dakota?

Are we supposed to be confident @JoeBiden will eke out Ohio on March 17? Arizona same day, with these weak Hispanic numbers?

Not me.

@JoeBiden @BernieSanders 8. It's very easy to see contests on April 4, April 7 and even April 28 influenced significantly after that loss in California.

I don't know, folks. Point being, Biden cannot afford losses Hillary absorbed EVEN AFTER she eked out or stole—depending on who you talk to, 😉—Iowa.