Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nodealbrexit

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Thread: The UK Parliament is set to approve Boris Johnson's #Brexit deal in one hour.

It was thought Johnson's large majority in #GeneralElection2019 could allow him to defy the hardline ERG faction and be more flexible for an EU free trade deal.

But the opposite is happening.
Johnson is still promising “no quotas, no tariffs, no dumping”.

But the bill the parliament is about to approve, which rules out extending negotiations past end 2020, means an FTA with no tariffs now impossible.

A full FTA cannot be negotiated in 11 months.
Brussels is responding by recalibrating its post-Brexit expectations, according to sources.

The landing zone is now expected to be a minor partnership, nothing like the Canada-style FTA promised.

Come 2021, Canada will have less tariffs on trade with the the EU than the UK.
Read 5 tweets
Hard factual headlines will follow this one:

"Tories have maxed up UK state debt by 2.5 times in just 9 and half years!" This is unprecedented in peacetime!

"Despite #Tory #Lies to the contrary? UK #economy is flat on its back, and likely to fall further - GDP was just 0.1% in the 6 months to 30sep19 being our worst showing since the financial crash!"

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) = total output of UK #economy, on which vital tax-take depends. HMG needs our tax (from companies, employees, householders) to fund OUR public services. Flat GDP growth (low % uplift) means less capability to fund services on which we depend!

Read 16 tweets
#Brexit's 'nightmare alley' from 100 miles high. A 'house of horrors' story with a happy ending? But only if we vote for an end to the 'biggest heist in history'! 1/
Cameron launched his cunning plan (Bruges 2013) which only half worked? Spoiler! A cautionary tale, never to be followed! being nothing to do with improved welfare for the vast majority of Brits. 2/
Cam's plan was to kill off the Tories' @LibDems coalition partner, by secretly shafting them, while 'doing for' UKIP with the same bullet! Only the first bit worked? 3/
Read 21 tweets
#GE2019 #GeneralElection2019

Are you still #undecided?
Are you thinking of voting #LibDem? Think very hard: your vote may get you a very bad #Brexit.
You want to #Remain & that's why you're voting #LibDem?
But the #LibDems can't #RevokeArticle50 unless they win the election. In 2017 they won 12 seats. They need 326 MPs to win. How many do they need to claim a mandate to #Revoke?
Maybe the #LibDems can form a minority government?
Could a minority government #RevokeArticle50? Even for that the #LibDems would need at least 200 seats. And what other parties would they then need for success? The #SNP might vote to #RevokeArticle50, but would they be enough?
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1. Let’s talk about Corbyn’s Labour and ideology.

The wolf in sheep’s clothing, pied piper tactics of promising everything whilst leading us off a cliff.

It’s similar to getting your pet to eat a pill hidden in something tasty.

Stalinists want a revolution ie

2. ERG and Stalinists share desire for #NoDealBrexit. They agree on the vehicle for revolution to burn back to build different new systems.

They use the same tactics, lying, pushing out propaganda and misinformation to confuse.…
Piers Corbyn gives details of what they believe just after his brother’s successful leadership bid.

I know it’s tiresome clicking on links and reading things, but do read this at least once. I’ve read it about 20 times searching for truth bc of ....…
Read 5 tweets
A thread- Labour & the #IrishBorder. Last night @jonsnowC4 interviewed @Keir_Starmer on @Channel4News. Starmer put forward Lab's Customs Union idea as the solution, Snow then picked up this idea & asked him about a Norway deal. 1/
Despite what Starmer implied, a Customs Union on its own would not stop customs checks. It was only when the UK & Ireland joined the Single Market in 1993 that customs checks vanished. Lab oppose being in the Single Market. 2/…
As it is, Norway is in the Single Market. But, as it is not in the EU's Customs Union, there are checks. @Freight_NI points out its one lorry every 35 sec on #IrishBorder at the moment while there's a delay of 10 ins on Norway/Sweden. 3/
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1. The more I watch, open mouth in amazement and disgust, at the Left and Remainer's increasingly appalling and dangerous behaviour the more I believe they are in the 5 Stages of Grief over #Brexit. THREAD. #NoDealBrexit #WTOBrexit #EU #BritishIndependence #CleanBreakBrexit
2. Denial= The vote wasn't binding. They didn't know what they were voting for. The Russians did it. It was illegitimate because there were campaign funding irregularities. Only 33 million voted that's only 50% of the population. We can have a soft Brexit. 2nd Ref is needed.
3. Anger= you are all racist, xenophobic, mysoginist, thick, Nazi, Little England, far right, gammon scum. We refuse any deal and no deal. Its going to be hell, people will die, the country end and you own this. I hope all old leave voters die. You literally ruinied my future.
Read 9 tweets
#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/
The initial #Leave case, dramatised by the #BorisBus, contended that UK could save its £350m pw #EU 'gross membership contribution' and pass that 'saving' straight to the #NHS - as 'additional funding'. 2/
The #Leave case focused on saving UK's #EU gross membership cost in favour of #NHS.

It ignored regular #EU annual contributions back into a multiplicity of UK projects, which would obviously be stopped, if we ceased membership.
Read 34 tweets
Even if true, this is already far, far, far too late, especially given the clear gaps between the two negotiating partners. Time. Has. Run. Out.
Any suggestion that a deal can be struck by the European Council on 17th Oct only comes from those with an agenda, no understanding of EU process, or no desire to properly scrutinise the statements of those who fall into categories one or two (or both). #Brexit
Serious prep is needed before a Council. This takes time. A General Affairs Council usually proceeds (maybe 14th, latest), Sherpa meetings are needed (poss 11th latest), exchanges of views between capitals & reps in Brux required (poss starting 9th latest)... #Brexit
Read 6 tweets
Nan's daily reminder that we must NOT allow telling big lies and repeating them to be normalised. There lies tyranny.

Today Nan's wondering why we didn't agree HOW to Leave in '16. That's got her thinking...How to "No Deal?"

It's bigger even than you think & worse for leavers
Everyone's aware by now of the standard #Brexit No Deal problems. Thread👇 something from a year ago which is about 95% the same as #Yellowhammer.

It's not good but you would have thought if we're making that big of a sacrifice Leave is benefiting?

Think again.
No Deal leaves the Government tied up in court for years. No #BritishIndependence
Principle of Government by Consent dates in concept back to Magna Carta.

This is very simplified, but basically, consent isn't given by omission - divine rule

Read 7 tweets
If we had a referendum on #NoDealBrexit, would they sell us permanent no-deal? No. They'd sell us it on the promise of negotiating a new deal.
They'll say "we'll hold all the cards", "We're the 5th biggest economy", "They need us..."
Are you stupid enough to fall for that twice?
What happens when we're another 3 years down the line, still unable to negotiate any deal with the EU that Brexiteers like... Meanwhile Trump's looking at our vulnerable NHS with hungry eyes & grabby hands, knowing that we've just economically isolated ourselves on our continent.
You think we'll still be saying 6 years later: "This is what the people voted for"?
Read 3 tweets
For everyone concerned about how those post-#NoDealBrexit trade deals are going, here is the list of all the trade deals currently signed...
...and here are all the trade deals currently under discussion along with the percentage of UK trade that they represent. Hold on to your hats, there are some HUGE numbers coming...
...and some more...
Read 5 tweets

Current state of play with trade agreements planning for life after the EU:

Trade agreements that have been signed:

Antigua and Barbuda
The Commonwealth of Dominica
The Dominican Republic
The Republic of Guyana

Saint Christopher and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Faroe Islands

Papua New Guinea
Palestinian Authority
South Korea

Mutual recognition agreements signed:

New Zealand
United States
Read 7 tweets
#Brexit means that the super-rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed. What did you expect from a policy promoted by hedge funds?

Follow the money.

NB: I originally posted a variant of this saying "the rich get richer...", but I suspect that there are a lot of comfortable middle-class people thinking that they'll do OK.


The only people who will benefit from #NoDealBrexit are traders betting against the UK Pound.
I suspect that there are whole lot of people thinking "well, I don't work in the car industry, so it won't affect me".


Do you use electricity?
Read 3 tweets
First read through #operationyellowhammer confirms: anyone lobbying for #NoDealBrexit has not the slightest clue what they are talking about; or is so cushioned from real world they needn't worry about things normal people have to worry about. Maybe latter explains PM & Co?
Note: admits serious problems - not least for Northern Ireland / Ireland. Some big understatements, e.g. on disruption to basic cross-border police and security cooperation. On citizens rights: repeats same mantra "broadly the same"... just hope you're not one of those affected.
Second read through #operationyellowhammer and you can't help but conclude: any Government that would allow this to happen to its own people constitutes a serious threat to national security? @nicholaswatt @lbcbreaking
Read 5 tweets
If even 8% of Brexit voters don't want No-Deal, then #NoDealBrexit is against the will of the people.
Sorry, I actually got that wrong.
I based my calculations on a total reversal.
4% of 51.9% = 2.1
51.9% - 2.1% = 49.8

If even 4% of Brexit voters don't want No-Deal, then #NoDealBrexit is against the will of the people.
So what are the odds that 96% of the people who argued for Brexit by swearing that it would produce an amazing trade deal, are all now OK with the exact opposite?

You know what? Let's ask Nigel Farage....
Read 3 tweets
My latest @telegraph comment: This may well be the EU’s last chance to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But will they take it?…
Thread ->
Boris Johnson's future as PM may hinge on whether he can avoid having to request a three-month extension on 18 October.
Brussels may now be strategising on the basis that, if they grant an extension, a @UKLabour government, intent on stopping a no deal #Brexit, could well come to power - and such a situation may work to Brussels' advantage.
Read 8 tweets
The majority of Parliament opposes #NoDealBrexit.
The majority of the People (54%) voted for parties whose manifestos opposed #NoDealBrexit.

So please, fight for a #NoDealBrexit if you want... But STOP pretending it has any democratic legitimacy.
Literally NOBODY would have voted Labour because they wanted #NoDealBrexit. They got 39.9% of the vote.

Labour's manifesto ruled it out and got a 6% increase in Remain voters.
Many voted Labour specifically to avoid #NoDealBrexit.…
Literally NOBODY would have voted Lib Dem because they wanted a #NoDealBrexit.
They got 7.4% of the vote.
They were calling for a referendum on the deal.
Read 6 tweets
Medicines in the UK come from a range of bulk suppliers - there are only 3 or 4 main ones.
As we know from anecdotal evidence, many medicines are already in short supply & this *will* worsen after #NoDealBrexit.
Here is the latest list of those medicines *currently* affected.
This is a really important point... some of those medicines *are* addictive, & withdrawal effects from sudden removal (or incorrect substitution) can be dangerous & unpredictable...
Read 4 tweets
One main difference between me and the Big Brexiteers is that the things I said on Brexit BEFORE THE REFERENDUM match what I say today.

e.g. 7 June 2016, I said Brexit would end up as a choice between economic harm & a loss of sovereignty. That's No-Deal & Deal in a nutshell.
Go see for yourself:
Compare that with our Prime Minister:
In 2016, he said the idea of #NoDealBrexit was "absurd", calling those who spoke of No Deal "pessimists" & "merchants of gloom".
Now Boris Johnson is willing to shut down Parliament and break the law to force it on us.
Read 3 tweets
This is my favourite😍!
It makes @JuliaHB1 the same as Daniel-Absolutely-nobody's-talking-about-threatening-our-place-in-the-single-market-Hannan.

#NoDealBrexit means less Free Trade with EU, by definition. So Julia Hartley-Brewer admitted that nobody wanted No-Deal in 2016.
@JuliaHB1 Just like all of the big Brexiteers, they painted a version of Brexit for us to vote for, which is the EXACT OPPOSITE of the one they now say we voted for.
@JuliaHB1 So any time Julia Hartley-Brewer tries to argue nobody voted for a deal, please just remind her that her own words prove otherwise.
Read 3 tweets
I'm not saying Leave voters who said Brexit wouldn't harm EU-UK trade, secretly wanted No-Deal and were just lying.

But if you stay silent when you discover what you said wasn't true i.e. let #NoDealBrexit happen, that's just as bad as lying. The country will never forgive you.
You're going to have to looking your kids in the eye, kids who didn't vote for this, as they're forced to live in the only economy on Earth that doesn't have a single free trade deal with anyone within 2000 miles... BECAUSE OF YOUR VOTE.

Family dinners are going to be so lovely!

You could do the logical, patriotic and democratic thing and recognise that the sovereignty-restoring, EU-UK trade-protecting, smooth Brexit you voted for isn't represented by either Deal or #NoDealBrexit, and campaign alongside your compatriots to make MPs call a referendum.
Read 3 tweets
We’ve released our new (third) @ukandeu No Deal Report. I’d like to thank the fantastic colleagues who contributed to it: @MeredithCrowle1, @dgbailey, @drsarah_hall, @hayward_katy, @CSBarnard24, @jdportes, @DrAlanWager, @matt_bevington, @hcarrapico @stevepeers 1/25
Here it is, a thing of beauty (and who knew photos were a way of tagging people who don't want to be tagged?) So what might a #NoDealBrexit mean? For those too busy (lazy) to read it, here’s a THREAD (in capitals) of the key points. DEEP BREATH #NoDealExplained 2/25
To the report itself. As we say in the introduction, although the legal consequences of no deal are relatively clear, the practical consequences are far less so. The defining feature of no deal is uncertainty (another photo, more unwilling victims tagged). 3/25
Read 25 tweets
1/ A reminder re today’s #Yellowhammer story👇

The government haven’t got back to the v experts they have been seeking advice re #nodealbrexit pharmaceutical supply issues...since March
2/which is why all of @BorisJohnson & @MattHancock s ‘updated’ plans for pharmaceuticals for #NoDealBrexit can be summarised like this👇...A BLANK SHEET OF PAPER...cos nothing has changed since I spoke to #Newsnight in APRIL🤷‍♂️…
Read 5 tweets

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