Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nodealbrexit

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Today the EU fires back in a brewing 🇪🇺🇬🇧 trade war.

The Commission is expected to announce unfreezing of legal action against 🇬🇧 (and the start of new actions) following the UK government's tabling of legislation to undo the #Brexit divorce deal's Northern Ireland Protocol.
Both Brussels and national 🇪🇺 capitals were infuriated by Monday's bill from 🇬🇧 government which, if/when passed, would unilaterally terminate large parts of the NI Protocol by ending checks between Northern Ireland (in EU customs area) and Great Britain (not in EU customs area).
🇪🇺VP @MarosSefcovic reminded 🇬🇧 Monday that NI Protocol was a prerequisite for agreeing the free trade deal (TCA) that came later and is now in effect.

The widespread feeling in 🇪🇺 now is @BorisJohnson signed protocol in order to get the deal, with no intention of honouring it.
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I'm currently doing a systematic analysis of the UK's post-#Brexit trade "continuity agreements" for my fellowship at @NIAS_KNAW.

It yielded this chart visualising the history of this programme to date. 👇

Here's a short thread about what it tells us... 1/
2/ To recap: By leaving the EU, the int'l agreements concluded by the EU with 3rd states cease to apply to the UK. As practice has shown, this includes "mixed agreements" to which the UK was party alongside the EU. This concerned also the EU's trade agreements 👇 (map not by me)
3/ Faced with the possibility of a #NoDealBrexit, the UK gov't negotiated & signed 18 continuity agreements already while the UK was still an EU member state. This was possibly a violation of EU exclusive competences, but the Eur. Commission did not take legal action.
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Ludicrous. Johnson and his government were told how difficult enforcing a customs border within the UK would be, including by people in his own party.

It’s the reason Theresa May said this is something no UK leader could do. But Johnson pushed ahead anyway.
There were only bad solutions to the "Brexit trilemma" - a consequence of the UK government's choice for an extreme form of Brexit in which the country left the customs union in addition to the single market.

A customs border had to go somewhere. Johnson chose option A. Image
May chose option C, which would have eventually kept al UK in customs union with EU if no solution could be found.

Johnson rejected that and chose option A. It's far less disruptive than B, because a few ports and an airport are easier to police than 350 separate land crossings.
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I suspect this will be lost in #BrexitDeal coverage. While this isn't #NoDealBrexit, it is a #HardBrexit.

”This will be as hard a Brexit as anything but no deal, and much harder than might have been expected after the relatively narrow referendum result"…
The 'hard' and 'soft' terms seem to have gotten warped over the past 4 years (especially, I notice, in US media).

After 2016 referendum Theresa May had to choose: soft Brexit (Norway), semi-hard Brexit (Turkey), or hard Brexit (Morocco). She chose the latter, hoping for an FTA.
The #BrexitDeal leaves UK as the only Western European country outside the EU single market.

Listening to @BorisJohnson's presser, you'd be forgiven for thinking the UK was *joining* the EU rather than leaving - such was his focus on benefits of supposedly zero-tariff trade.
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The #BrexitDeal is better than #NoDealBrexit in the same way that shooting yourself in the leg is better than gouging your eyes out with a rusty spoon.

But congrats to the tories who gambled the country to silence the ERG, lost, and reinvented themselves as UKIP to survive.
We now begin a period where the British are second-class citizens in their own continent, less free than Romanians, with less say over our continent than Malta. Where uniquely, British businesses fight with one arm tied behind their backs with red tape, delays and costs.
Our buying power has withered overnight. We're paying almost double for our #COVIDVaccine than EU citizens. Supporters of the #VoteLeave regime demand you clap like seals as their second-rate trade deals trickle in, a notable absence being a US trade deal after 4 years.
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So what’s all the fuss about? Best place to start is here:

"Under the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) the UK *ceded* control of fisheries within the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (UKEEZ) to the EU"

This is the crux of the matter. Why?

In 2018 1.945m Tonnes of Fish & Shellfish were landed in the UKEEZ

By Fleet, in Tonnes

UK - 555,000 (29%)
EU27 - 860,000 (44%)
Other - 527,000 (27%)

71% landed by non-UK boats due to the CFP and/or European Commission agreements with 3rd countries

UK boats have less than 1/3rd of the UKEEZ pie

Read 13 tweets
#Brexit update: Anything could happen tomorrow, but my guess is nothing will happen.

Talks are continuing as we speak, but there's no phone call or announcement scheduled for tomorrow's "deadline".

It's possible we end tomorrow with no news.
Like all the past deadlines (June, Oct), they've simply said that on Sunday they'll assess 'whether enough progress has been made to continue talks'.

When each deadline came they've said 'we've made some small progress so let's continue'. That may happen again tomorrow.
But if they decide to continue, surely at this point those talks will be only a charade.

Neither side wants to be seen as the one walking away from the table. Johnson flirted with it in October, then chickened out.

Talks will technically continue but #NoDeal will be assured.
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UK government now saying that if the EU doesn't give Britain a deal in the next 2 days, they will send gunboats to protect their fish from French fishermen.

Expect the threats to get even wilder in the coming days. This is what panic looks like.
More on exactly what the UK government said here.

They knew exactly what headlines this wording would generate.
Among #NoDealBrexit contingency measures triggered by the EU Commission Thursday is a request to UK for continued reciprocal access by EU & UK vessels to each other's waters.

Without it there is a risk of sea violence in the English Channel in January.…
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The brexiters journey in gifs

Boris Johnson in referendum campaign - 2 speeches
After he has chosen a side
Core message - blame the foreigners
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.@BBCBreakfast: Tesco says No-Deal Brexit will increase food prices by 5%.

Dominic Raab: "I'm not concerned about supermarket shelves running bare or the cost of food prices".
It's the fact that @DominicRaab just disregarded 30% of our total food supply like it was NOTHING!

Michael Gove HAS ALREADY ADMITTED that food prices will rise if there's a #NoDealBrexit, but Dominic Raab isn't concerned.
Unlike most of those on the other side of this, I'm cursed with a journalistic conscience, so I've been thinking "Oh no! Did I cut off that footage unfairly? Maybe I should put up what Dominic Raab says next so people can hear it in context".
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“Reasonable worst-case scenario” (#NoDealBrexit) Leak the thread... #Brexit #BrexitReality
“Reasonable worst-case scenario”...
“Reasonable worst-case scenario”...
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I'd just like to place on record that #NoDealBrexit is just about the worst *political* idea I've ever heard. In the 1000% unlikely event I was advising the PM, I would be extremely strongly against.
It's the classic Weak Man's Strong Man decision, like Steve McClaren dropping David Beckham. Sugar rush of the call, then all your problems get much worse.
It supercharges your opponents, allows Labour all the political landscape, is a *vast* gift to the SNP, revives the Lib Dems - all at a stroke.
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1/. Britain prepares to leave the EU on 31 December, with or without a deal. #Brexit #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit #BrexitDeal [Sound on]
2/. Preparations for #Brexit continue at a pace across the country. #Brexit #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit #BrexitDeal
3/. Brexit the Board Game.

Fun for all the family this #Christmas . (video by @ShortList) #Brexit #BestThingsAboutBrexit #BrexitDeal
Read 5 tweets
Indeed. The fisheries issue is a red herring, if you'll pardon the pun.

If there is #NoDealBrexit it will not be because of a dispute over fish, as the UK media is suggesting, but because of UK's refusal to follow some LPF rules in exchange for tariff-free access to EU market.
There is a reason the UK briefs as if fisheries is the main stumbling bloc. It's a very small (though very emotional) part of the economy and the EU's stance is not very sympathetic. But it's a side issue.

LPF and governance goes to the heart of what #Brexit will and won't be.
The UK side doesn't want to talk about LPF because it highlights the lack of thinking that went into the #Brexit plan before the referendum.

#Norway & #Switzerland were used as examples, but then after the vote their models were immediately ruled out because they're rule-takers.
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Plenary Session 4 is about to start!

"Differentiated Integration and the Future of Europe" highlighting our #InDivEU Project!

Here are the highlights

This session is moderated by @ETH_en's Frank Schimmelfennig and features contributions from Stefan Telle (@EuropeanUni), @katrinauel (@IHS_Vienna), Ramūnas Vilpišauskas (@VU_LT), Maja Bučar (@FDVLjubljana), and Gunilla Herolf (@UISweden)

"Differentiated Integration is currently in the news as one possible way out of the current Rule of Law/Recovery Fund issue. This framework for integration is what we will be discussion within the #InDivEU Project"

- Frank Schimmelfennig from @ETH_en

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Let’s be clear - the scuffle over fishing is a bagatelle compared to what’s not going on in financial services at the moment. #Brexit #NoDealBrexit - a thread 👇
If you think our financial services industry is American Banks like @George_Osborne does then the City is OK - they all now have Dublin and Frankfurt offices and will be All Right Jack. If you care about the real City, of small firms, you should start to be really worried 2/13
A real example: an English client has an Irish DAC funding vehicle that is listed on the Cyprus Stock Exchange with English investors. Currently my firm is a member of the CSE and investors hold stock in CREST. From Jan 1st my membership of CSE is in real doubt. 3/13
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I'm not suggesting Boris Johnson is corrupt. The man is simply tremendously unlucky.

Every time he talks up #NoDealBrexit, Sterling just happens to slump and all his hedge fund sponsors, as a matter of coincidence, make a killing.

Imagine if less forgiving people knew this.
I'm not saying that Michael Gove is a deceitful liar with a cocaine habit.

It's just tremendously unlucky that his predictions never come true, and that his promises are negated by events.

The sniffing through high pressure interviews thing. Fake news.

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Even countries most exposed to #NoDealBrexit dangers are saying EU shouldn't back down on #Brexit.

Belgium is the 2nd most exposed, but PM @AlexanderDeCroo says in late-night presser that "it would be crazy not to have a deal but it would be even more crazy to have a bad deal".
De Croo says this resolve is hardening "more and more" on EU side.

"Granting access of the UK to the European market, if you want to that, then we need assurances on the way the UK is going to play the game".
Because trust is low (especially after UK made plans to renege on withdrawal treaty), a sanctions mechanism need to be in place if UK violates FTA.

The UK could “possibly have some predatory behaviour which could be very negative for the European economy"
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There is no prospect that leaders at today's #EUCO will somehow agree a post-#Brexit FTA in time for @BorisJohnson's 15 October deadline

But now the UK side is walking back his threat, saying tomorrow he will merely assess whether there has been enough progress to continue talks
But the elephant in the room is #CoronaVirus.

It's looking like this may be the last in-person #EUCO this year. If #Brexit talks do continue, they will likely have to be virtual.

Hard to see how a deal can be reached in these circumstances.
President @EmmanuelMacron entering #EUCO: "It is possible that there will be no [#Brexit FTA] agreement…we are prepared for it.”

“Our fishermen should not be the ones being sacrificed because of Brexit...we have not chosen Brexit, it is the British peoples' choice."
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Ich weiß: Zeit ist knapp und daher wertvoll. Die 15 Seiten Text daher hier in 15 Tweets!
Das @Europarl_EN hat gezeigt, dass es beim #Brexit als einheitlicher und geschlossener Player agiert. Noch vor Beginn der Austrittsverhandlungen hat das Parlament unmissverständlich klar gemacht, dass es sich nicht mit einem Platz am Katzentisch zufriedengeben werde. (1/15)
Tatsächlich hat das Europäische Parlament auf Augenhöhe mit den anderen Institutionen agiert. Mehr noch: Der inhaltliche Fokus der EU-27 auf Bürgerrechte und die Unnachgiebigkeit in der #Nordirland-Frage gehen ganz klar zurück auf die Bestrebungen des @Europarl_EN. (2/15)
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Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

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☡Why #NoDealBrexit is far worse than #Covid for FOOD SUPPLIES 1. Tariffs 2. Disruption to supply chains 3. Time of Year!!
#TripleThreat #BrexitReality
Trust @the_brc actual experts in food supply, or believe #ToryLiars expert only in #ToryIncompetence!🤔
+ WARNINGS from @RHA =actual Experts in Road Haulage/ transport logistics!!
Think they understand their business & #BrexitReality more than clueless Govt ministers - tin-eared #Brexiters eg Gove = #BrexitLies #BrexitCon!!
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This week, a No Deal #Brexit just got a step closer.

@WendyNowak shines a light on the situation of the many UK citizens who are dependent upon medication from the EU.

#3Point5Percent #NoDealBrexit #MedicationShortage #MedsShortage

"As soon as I heard rumours about shortages of medicines alarm bells started ringing in my head.

I’m Type 2 diabetic and need insulin to control it. The complications of uncontrolled diabetes are dire: blindness, kidney failure, cardiovascular disease, amputation.

On further investigation it turns out that only about 0.5% of the insulin used in the UK is manufactured here. The rest comes mainly from Denmark or Germany, from the big manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Sanofi Deutschland.

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We need to talk about the fact that Boris Johnson is calling #NoDealBrexit "a good outcome".
OK, here are the bits that I referred to but didn't prove in the video.

1⃣ Here's Stephen Phipson, CEO of @MakeUK_ explaining that bringing employees back after furlough ends will depends on having frictionless trade at the borders.
2⃣ Here is where you can find the data which proves that since the 2016 referendum the EU medic numbers, as percentage of our NHS staff, has declined relative to where it was heading.… Image
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