My take on NH results: Bernie is an extremely vulnerable frontrunner, if he can be called that at all. He underperformed badly against expectations and would have lost without the Amy surge. He won with the smallest margin in modern memory and lost 60 percent of his 2016 support
in a neighboring state where he enjoys a significant homefield advantage.This shedding of support is only partly attributable to having more rivals. It suggests that his big 2016 win was anti-Hillary sentiment more than support for his “revolution”. Bernie owns about one quarter
of the Democratic Party, which is not enough to win the nomination.He is in better shape than all rivals except Biden (whose campaign is on life support) with POC but has a boulder in his path next week in Nevada. The Culinary Workers Union, which represents casino employees and
dominates the Democratic Party in Nevada, just issued a stinging denunciation of Medicare for All, which abolishes their hard-won health care plan.This will be a hot topic at the Nevada debate, and Bernie’s answer to it is weak. Where does he go to expand his support? His rivals
splitting the moderate vote is not enough to propel him to 51 % and a first ballot victory. He will likely go to Milwaukee with around 30%.The comparison to Trump, who was also seen at first as limited to 25-30%, ignores that he was a 1st time fresh candidate. Bernie is a retread
with intense support only among young people who still vote less. Pete outperformed expectations in both IA and NH and is a gifted politician who may play well on Super Tuesday in states like CA. But SC is just three days before and, despite much effort, he is still nowhere with
with black voters. So is Amy right now, but that’s mostly because they don’t know her yet and so have neither accepted nor rejected her. Despite raising millions in last few days, she has big challenges in $$ and campaign infrastructure ahead. But with a strong primary night
speech and excellent positioning in the Democratic Party, she is the big winner out of NH.Amy will face more stories about her treatment of staff, her prosecution of MN cases and whether she has ever had a hard race before. But she will soon be able to make a credible argument
that she is well-equipped to beat Trump. Bloomberg is formidable & will blow everyone out in Super T spending. But if Amy can pick up Warren support as she did in NH, beat expectations in NV and SC—still big “ifs”—she will have the momentum that often decides prez races.
