Bloomberg's projected vote share by Super Tuesday state:
MN 8%
VT 9%
CA 13%
MA 13%
CO 15%
UT 15%
ME 16%
TX 17%
TN 20%
NC 20%
AL 21%
AR 21%
VA 22%
OK 22%
MN 8%
VT 9%
CA 13%
MA 13%
CO 15%
UT 15%
ME 16%
TX 17%
TN 20%
NC 20%
AL 21%
AR 21%
VA 22%
OK 22%
So generally speaking, Bloomberg is at risk of <15% in Bernie's strongest states, which is helpful to Bern since Bloom drains votes from other moderates but may get few delegates of his own.
In Biden's strongest states (i.e. in the South) though, Bloomberg is usually *over* 15%.
In Biden's strongest states (i.e. in the South) though, Bloomberg is usually *over* 15%.
It would be fairly hard to engineer a polling scenario in which Bloomberg was more helpful to Bernie, in other words. Of course, polls could change before Super Tuesday.
