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Buttigieg dropping out may actually increase the likelihood of a contested convention. He was polling at <15% almost everywhere on Super Tuesday, meaning he was tracking to get very few delegates, but his votes will help other candidates to get over 15% and get delegates.
@chrislhayes OK, so our forecast has been updated with Buttigieg dropping out. The major effect is to help "no majority" at the expense of Sanders for the reason I explained above. ^^

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
@chrislhayes Buttigieg dropping also improved Biden's plurality chances slightly (34% -> 36%) and lowered Bernie's slightly (63% -> 60%). Again, this is mainly because of the effects on the delegate math; more candidates getting to 15% means less chance that Sanders runs up the score on Tues.
@chrislhayes Our model does not actually make hugely aggressive assumptions about where Buttigieg's support will go. It has it dividing fairly evenly between the other candidates. But, again, taking Buttigeg's 10% and giving everyone 2-3% hurts Bernie because of the 15% threshold stuff.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
People (including me to some extent) interpreted head-to-head polls showing Sanders tied with/slightly ahead of Biden as being good news for Sanders. But not sure they were given that those polls were taken at the height of Sanders's bounce and Biden's slump...
If Sanders was only leading Biden by a couple points in head-to-head polls at a time after NH when a lot of when national polls were like Sanders 28, Biden 16 (i.e. Sanders +12) that suggests that Biden *was* set to benefit from the field consolidating.
Overall, your analysis of this primary will tend to have been stronger if you *did* believe in ideological "lanes" than if you didn't. The polls aside, the actual behavior of voters has been rather emphatic on that point.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The model is back on! It's quite good for Biden; 88 percent majority chances. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Here's an explainer on why Bernie's position is tough (not impossible but *tough*) as well as a change to the model which reflects the potential for increased volatility in the polls over the next few weeks (this change helps Bernie's chances slightly). fivethirtyeight.com/features/after…
One other caveat: the model is making a lot of guesses about how Super Tuesday and the recent dropouts will affect the polls. There hasn't actually been much polling yet, so we should know a lot more in a couple days.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Forecast today. I promise. First half of the day, probably. We wanted to look at one more thing before we published, which is: How should the model account for the fact that there's been a lot of volatility in the polls recently?
We researched this yesterday and the quick version of the answer is that polling volatility predicts future volatility over the short-to-medium run. It's sort of like how there can be short-term volatility spikes in the stock market. So our model will now account for that.
It's still (spoiler alert) gonna be quite confident in Biden. He's in a very good position, maybe even more so than the conventional wisdom assumes. But also there's a higher-than-usual chance that polls remain volatile over the next few weeks. That gives Bernie a small opening.
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The Epoch Times
@EpochTimes
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M.S. Bellows, Jr.
@msbellows
It has nothing to do with who I LIKE better. Today's results will be OK for Sanders, bec of early ballots. But Klobuchar/Buttigieg dropping out consolidates the centrist vote behind one candidate. Sanders CAN'T win a clear majority. At best, he can stop Biden from winning one.
1/
And if no one has a clear majority in convention Round One, it becomes a contested convention in which superdelegates (nearly all Democratic Party mainstreamers) can vote. And in Round Two, those folks will not side with Sanders. They won't do it.
2/
So the nominee WILL be Biden, and progressives will be out in the cold again, unless they can unify behind a progressive who is NOT Sanders.
3/
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James Surowiecki
@JamesSurowiecki
1. The idea that Biden's sudden (re-)ascent is the result of the "party deciding" doesn't actually fit the facts. The party didn't decide this. The voters in the first four primary contests did.
2. If the Dem establishment had actually wanted Biden as the nominee, he wouldn't have had almost no money in the bank after Nevada, been forced to pretty much give up on campaigning in California, or have had a paltry campaign infrastructure in many ST states.
3. Nor would all of the key Dem establishment figures have so studiously refused to endorse him - even though he became the frontrunner in the polls as soon as he officially announced.
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unseen1
@unseen1_unseen
For the last month or so we heard doom and gloom that mini Mike was going to buy the election with his billions.....I stated probably won't happen...not really concerned by mini Mike...now we see he crashed at the debates, stalled at the polls, and stopped ad buys after Mar 3rd.
Depending on his results in Super Tuesday, he may get out of the race. You need 15% vote to get delegates and if he gets no delegates he can't implement his contested convention plan. In other words, if he fails on Super Tuesday, his plan fails utterly. He will be out.
What will find finally happen with Mini Mike? Who knows. This isn't about mini Mike. This is about those that listen to the "muh we are all doomed" crowd time after time after time.

Aren't you tired of being worried and living in fear about everything?
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Bill Scher
@billscher
On @270toWin's delegate calculator, I sketched 2 simplistic, best-case for Biden Super Tuesday scenarios. In both, Sanders still gets a few more delegates, though presumably the resulting narrative wouldn't be so favorable (esp. since CA will get called late). Here's my math...
@270toWin In one, Biden wins SC 40-25 over Bernie, and that translates to identical wins in AL, AR, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA. Bernie does the reverse in CA, CO, ME, UT, and crushes VT. He wins MA by 1 over Warren, w/Biden at 20. Klob over Bernie by 5 in MN...
@270toWin In the 2nd, Biden wins SC 30-20 over Bernie, Warren at 15., Similar application for AL, AR, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA, reverse for Bernie in CA, CO, ME, UT. VT, MA and MN same as Scenario 1...
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
Will Sanders have a majority, even a plurality, of delegates at the convention?

Absolutely not. We can see that already. 1/12
Bloomberg is already in second place in the national polls, and he’s the leading moderate candidate now. And that’s been achieved when he’s been running as an *outsider.* MB hasn’t even been in the debates. That will change tomorrow. 2/12
After the debate, where he will do extremely well, MB will be free to concentrate his attention on all the Super Tuesday states, which will award 1/3 of the delegates at the convention. 3/12
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