Ok, proposed 95% CI for what proportion of the world gets COVID-19 in 2020: 0.01% to 30%. Discuss (either side).
Note that current rate is 85k/7.8B => 1/92,000 (~0.001%), so LB is "stopped after 10x increase". For UB note seasonal flu hits roughly 5-20% / year.
Note that current rate is 85k/7.8B => 1/92,000 (~0.001%), so LB is "stopped after 10x increase". For UB note seasonal flu hits roughly 5-20% / year.
Current doubling time outside China is ~4 days (17% daily over last 10 days) from a current base of 5,358. So to get a 10x increase would only take 32 days growth at current rates. Can the rest of the world implement China-like quarantines that fast?
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
For the upper bound: countries can close borders, preppers will hide in the hills, we will eventually get a vaccine, and some people have strong immune systems. Viruses like this don't seem to infect everyone (fortunately). So 50%+ is very unlikely.
Debate fairly, cite sources, form a @waitbutwhy Idea Lab not an Echo Chamber[1] and maybe we can talk about mortality CIs tomorrow.
Are they wider (b/c more sources of variance?) Or narrower (b/c our stats on mortality are more accurate)? Hmm...
[1] waitbutwhy.com/2019/10/idea-l…
Are they wider (b/c more sources of variance?) Or narrower (b/c our stats on mortality are more accurate)? Hmm...
[1] waitbutwhy.com/2019/10/idea-l…
