Thread by @AMLeahy

THREAD re: understanding social distancing and practical steps

Let's be clear about the severity of CoVID-19 & the potential impact so that we can help each other understand why we need to slow the transmission now, spread the inevitable cases over a longer period of time, 1/x

and flatten the epidemiological curve. I talked with my aunt, who was planning to travel. She understood quickly once I explained in ways that made sense to her. Feel free to share this post--it's long and includes suggested actions. It's important to understand 2/x

that 1 in 5 CoVID-19 cases require hospitalization. When you read that 20% of cases are serious, which is all over the news, that's what it means: 1 in 5 CoVID-19 patients need a hospital stay to have a good chance of not dying. Think about what it would mean 3/x

if 1 in 5 of your Facebook friends needs hospital care for this infection.
Many of those hospitalizations require ventilators as well as hospital stays of many days. The number of adult ICU beds and ventilators is limited, and regular beds can't be converted 4/x

when more people show up. In addition, there are significant regional differences in ICU availability. If your local hospital has, say, 25 adult ICU beds, what if 30 people with serious cases of CoVID-19 show up in a single week? And don't forget that other people need ICU 5/x

beds too--heart attacks, car accidents, sepsis, and so on, they keep happening too. Obviously, if CoVID-19 hits in a big wave, there won't be enough ICU beds. If that happens, doctors use triage to make decisions about which patients get the appropriate care 6/x

and which patients get whatever can be managed with scarce resources. That's why more people will die if CoVID-19 spreads rapidly than if cases are spread out over time. And not only those with CoVID-19 but other patients who are vying for ICU care as well. That's where 7/x

early hand-washing, disinfecting your phone and other high-touch surfaces, and social distancing come in. That's why universities are switching to online instruction. That's why conferences, concerts, and sporting events are canceling. That's why all of us-- 8/x

not just those at higher risk--need to restrict our interactions with others for the next several weeks. By working together, we're trying to spread cases out over time. CoVID-19 will spread and most of us will be exposed over the next year, but 9/x

slowing the transmission matters a lot for how many people die of CoVID-19 and of other reasons during the CoVID-19 crisis. When you read "flattening the curve," that's what it means.

Here are helpful things individuals might do to help spread cases over more time: 10/x

1) If you are not sick but are older than 60 or if you are younger but have an underlying health condition, call your doctor for guidance on how much to restrict your activities. Physicians can provide notes that might help you negotiate working from home, suspending 11/x

gym memberships, and activating travel insurance. Not everyone has access to these options, so it's important for those of us who do to use them to protect those who don't.

2) If you are a church-goer, call your church leader to ask whether services are canceled & if not, 12/x

whether extra measures like hand sanitizers and disinfecting seats are being taken. Don't wait to hear whether church events are canceled. Asking these questions increases awareness and starts the process in motion if nothing's being done.

3) If you 13/x

have travel plans in the next several weeks, consider canceling. It's tempting for the healthy among us to not forego travel, but it's important for each of us to think about how you define non-essential and why. Some employers 14/x

are requiring two-week self-quarantine for those who travel out of state, and sometimes it's easier for someone else to make the decision for you. It's natural to be disappointed and even pissed off if you decide to cancel travel. Also, if you cancel 15/x

and are concerned the airline won't waive the change fee, I suggest a DM on Twitter to start your request. JetBlue adjusted their policy for me and handled the whole thing via Twitter DM. I've heard similar stories from others, and 16/x

airlines seem to be keeping track of social media discussions about travel. Again, asking questions and articulating concerns increases awareness--if there's not an adjustment for you, maybe it paves the way for the person who asks tomorrow.

4) If you are 17/x

hosting an event or in-person meeting in the next six or eight weeks, consider canceling now--or rescheduling. It's important for event hosts to make the difficult decision rather than leaving that burden with each individual. That's what leadership is 18/x

and why you've been trusted to be in charge of an event. As social distancing increased this week, it's become more difficult to plan properly for events, let alone hold them, and attendance is likely to be much lower anyway. 19/x

California has suggested that events with more than 250 people cancel, and my university says 100. Statistically, an event of 10 people is less likely to include someone with CoVID-19 than an event of 100 people, and an event with 100 healthy teenagers 20/x

is statistically less risky than an event with 100 seniors, but it takes only one person for community transmission at an event. Besides, there's no way to know whether attendees have been practicing social distancing and, therefore, no way to know who's 21/x

more likely to transmit the virus (or who's more likely to come in close contact with those at high risk). In fact, it seems reasonable to assume that those who go to large gatherings are not practicing social distancing and are more likely to transmit 22/x

the virus at these gatherings. If you do go forward with an event, think about ways to reduce risk, like moving chairs six feet apart and providing hand sanitizer.

5) If you are a professor switching from in-person to online teaching--or for anyone switching to remote work 23/x

for the first time--do the best that you can. Avoid saying, "the university is closed" or "classes are cancelled"--that minimizes the extra effort you're putting in right now. Focus on your strengths, your goals, and your expertise first and then seek the tools 24/x

that will allow you to make the most of your strengths to achieve your basic goals. Know that there are models and tools available and Facebook friends/groups who have experience using online formats--seek them out because I'm seeing a lot of generosity. Importantly, 25/x

ask your administration or supervisor questions when you run into problems. Making IT and the Dean of Students aware that some students may not have a laptop or internet and that some classes are more difficult to switch than others, for instance, is crucial documentation. 26/x

These are institutional or organizational issues, and going it alone hides the issues from the administration and leaves us grumbling to each other online (which also has its place but isn't the end game). Of course, institutional culture varies, and it's tenured faculty 27/x

who are most able to raise questions--let's step up for those faculty and students who can't.

6) Think about ways you can do more social distancing yourself and also ways that you can help others increase their social distancing. Maybe treat grocery shopping as a carpool 28/x

system, where one friend in a group goes each week for the group. Come up with creative ideas, perhaps ones that work not only for yourself but for others too. Share your ideas.

7) If someone is having difficulty understanding why social distancing applies to them 29/x

or is having trouble making a tough decision about social distancing, talk with that person for a few minutes. Explain the need to spread cases out over time, support how difficult these decisions and steps might feel, and encourage that person 30/x

to think about their priorities and also how they can balance their needs and desires with the community needs and risks. Feel free to share this thread, too, if you think it might be helpful. We're in this together. 31/x