CARGO CULTS AND THE PANDEMIC
(thread)
1/ Cargo cult is an expression that relates to Pacific island natives who saw US personnel signaling cargos how to land on their island and, after they were gone, kept repeating for decades the same gestures as a ritual to get planes to land
(thread)
1/ Cargo cult is an expression that relates to Pacific island natives who saw US personnel signaling cargos how to land on their island and, after they were gone, kept repeating for decades the same gestures as a ritual to get planes to land
2/ Observing the reaction of many governments to the pandemic, I see a lot of cargo cults.
Western governments are copying some of the things they saw the Chinese do, w/o really understanding how & why
The result: a costly mess which might not even work
Western governments are copying some of the things they saw the Chinese do, w/o really understanding how & why
The result: a costly mess which might not even work
3/ As an example: not all lockdowns are equal.
The picture below: Milan underground, 2 days ago, during the lockdown.
I wasn't in China last month, but I'm pretty confident I wouldn't have seen this.
The picture below: Milan underground, 2 days ago, during the lockdown.
I wasn't in China last month, but I'm pretty confident I wouldn't have seen this.
4/ Here are some cargo cult beliefs:
"If we legislate a lockdown, it will work."
No. It will work if you enforce it, and if you enforce it in a way in which enforcement is a checkpoint not a chokepoint.
For example…
"If we legislate a lockdown, it will work."
No. It will work if you enforce it, and if you enforce it in a way in which enforcement is a checkpoint not a chokepoint.
For example…
5/ …Italy's requirement that people walking out have to handle a paper form to the police is a risk, as physical contact might spread the virus and police becomes a virus pollinator.
Why not to use an app?
(they tried; this is the pathetic result 👇)
Why not to use an app?
(they tried; this is the pathetic result 👇)
6/ Moreover, lockdowns are a temporary strategy.
Their purpose is to buy time as we scale testing (& medical / quarantining capability). To exit the lockdown, it's necessary to isolate the old sick and to be able to quickly spot the new sick.
Otherwise, back to lockdown soon.
Their purpose is to buy time as we scale testing (& medical / quarantining capability). To exit the lockdown, it's necessary to isolate the old sick and to be able to quickly spot the new sick.
Otherwise, back to lockdown soon.
7/ China used the lockdown as a key component of a complex strategy which worked
Lockdown alone won't be enough
It's like seeing your friend cooking pizza and then baking some tomato sauce and complaining it's not tasty
You can't just copy one step. The how & why must be clear
Lockdown alone won't be enough
It's like seeing your friend cooking pizza and then baking some tomato sauce and complaining it's not tasty
You can't just copy one step. The how & why must be clear
8/ As another example of cargo cult:
"Temperature screening".
Taiwan did temperature screen travelers from Wuhan as early as the 5th of January. It worked.
However,
- They also tracked them
- They closed borders very early
- Not the only measure
Only temp screen isn't enough.
"Temperature screening".
Taiwan did temperature screen travelers from Wuhan as early as the 5th of January. It worked.
However,
- They also tracked them
- They closed borders very early
- Not the only measure
Only temp screen isn't enough.
9/ Also: there is temperature screening and temperature screening.
The 1st pic is India (spacing between operators AND travelers).
The 2nd is Singapore (use of camera, no slowdown).
The 3rd one is US (the net effect is probably negative: a contagion hotspot).
The 1st pic is India (spacing between operators AND travelers).
The 2nd is Singapore (use of camera, no slowdown).
The 3rd one is US (the net effect is probably negative: a contagion hotspot).
10/ The virus is in the details.
11/ So, how do we avoid cargo culting a pandemic response, and instead taking steps which are effective?
The first step, is to think in terms of leading indicators rather than in lagging indicators
Here is why (from gum.co/opexbook which I made free during the pandemic)
The first step, is to think in terms of leading indicators rather than in lagging indicators
Here is why (from gum.co/opexbook which I made free during the pandemic)
12/ Leading indicators tend to be antifragile to implementation quality.
Poor execution visibly worsens them, so errors are spotted quickly and corrected immediately.
Lagging indicators are fragile to implementation quality: errors show up when it's too late.
Poor execution visibly worsens them, so errors are spotted quickly and corrected immediately.
Lagging indicators are fragile to implementation quality: errors show up when it's too late.
13/ An example:
- If you focus on number of tests (a leading indicator), chances are your action will have a positive long-term effect, as you iterate proactively.
- If you focus on cases (a lagging indicator), if the measures you're using don't work, you'll notice too late.
- If you focus on number of tests (a leading indicator), chances are your action will have a positive long-term effect, as you iterate proactively.
- If you focus on cases (a lagging indicator), if the measures you're using don't work, you'll notice too late.
14/ Cargo cults are the celebration of lagging indicators.
They are defeated by embracing leading ones.
They are defeated by embracing leading ones.
15/ Also, on cargo culting
