Let me build this out a little more. The below doesn't quite convey just how alarming the case trajectories are in the US.
We are in really, really bad shape, and getting worse.
We are in really, really bad shape, and getting worse.
You've probably seen this graph from @jburnmurdoch. It shows that we're in bad shape, but doesn't seem massively divergent from China's line.
We're actually much worse off than they were at this point in their outbreak.
We're actually much worse off than they were at this point in their outbreak.
Here's another way to show it.
US case total (left, per JHU): 76.5k
US daily count (per NYT): 14k and rising
When China hit 76.5k (red circle on right), they were averaging only a few 100 a day and had been declining for weeks. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
US case total (left, per JHU): 76.5k
US daily count (per NYT): 14k and rising
When China hit 76.5k (red circle on right), they were averaging only a few 100 a day and had been declining for weeks. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
So at the same point in terms of total case numbers, China was well on its way to controlling the outbreak, while the US is still climbing the exponential growth curve.
Our case total yesterday - 14k - is 3.5x greater than any single day's recorded case total in China.
Our case total yesterday - 14k - is 3.5x greater than any single day's recorded case total in China.
(Note that the spikes in China's chart on 12/13 Feb were retroactive adjustments, not a sudden explosion in cases)
It gets worse.
Our distribution of cases is also frightening.
China had a bonfire in Hubei but was stamping out sparks everywhere else.
We've now got a bonfire in NYC and campfires almost everywhere else - and all still shooting out sparks.
Our distribution of cases is also frightening.
China had a bonfire in Hubei but was stamping out sparks everywhere else.
We've now got a bonfire in NYC and campfires almost everywhere else - and all still shooting out sparks.
We need to adjust our expectations about the challenge that lies ahead.
US case counts today reflect transmission that was happening 2-3wks ago (~4 day avg incubation; ~8-10 days to reach serious symptoms and test; tests often taking ~1wk to confirm).
US case counts today reflect transmission that was happening 2-3wks ago (~4 day avg incubation; ~8-10 days to reach serious symptoms and test; tests often taking ~1wk to confirm).
Social distancing measures have only been in place for part of that time, and with far less consistency than in China.
Cases will continue to climb dramatically in many more areas and we will face a much larger task than China did.
We are still only on the front end of this.
Cases will continue to climb dramatically in many more areas and we will face a much larger task than China did.
We are still only on the front end of this.
So please - keep up the social distancing. Keep supporting each other. And keep pressuring the government to pursue the kind of ambitious Manhattan-Project-level effort needed to pull the country out of this. vox.com/science-and-he…
Addendum - since the time I began working on this thread, the US case total has risen from 76.5k to 79.8k. We'll surpass China and Italy tonight or tomorrow.
And there it is.
