Thread by @JJSchroden

Welcome to #AFGPanel! On March 23, @StateDept released a statement “On the Political Impasse in #Afghanistan” in which the US expressed its “deep regrets” that Afghan leaders @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE haven’t been able to form an inclusive govt. 1/n

state.gov/on-the-politic…

Statement: “Because this leadership failure poses a direct threat to US national interests, effective immediately, the US government will initiate a review of the scope of our cooperation with #Afghanistan.” #AFGPanel 2/n

That “review” entails the immediate reduction of US aid to #Afghanistan by $1B, a possible additional $1B cut next year, & the possibility of further reductions in US pledges at future donor conferences. #AFGPanel 3/n

The US left open the possibility of revisiting these cuts “should Afghan leaders choose to form an inclusive government that can provide security and participate in the peace process.” #AFGPanel 4/n

But for a country whose GDP is roughly $20B/year—much of which comes from foreign aid—even the threat of such cuts is significant & if enacted, such reductions could have severe consequences for #Afghanistan. #AFGPanel 5/n

For the next hour, I have the honor of hosting a discussion on these issues w/an amazing panel. We’ll address the mood in Kabul, possible reactions of #Afghanistan's political leaders, responses from #Pakistan, #India & across the region, & implications for #ISIS-K. #AFGPanel 6/n

Our panelists, in order of tweeting appearance, are: @MaroWardak, the host of #SouthAsiaDiary on @WIONews & advocate for women’s rights in #Afghanistan via @HerAfghanistan. #AFGPanel 7/n

@OmSamad, Sr Fellow @AtlanticCouncil, former #Afghanistan ambassador to Canada, France, and designate to Belgium/EU. #AFGPanel 8/n

@MichaelKugelman, deputy director @AsiaProgram & South Asia senior associate @TheWilsonCenter. #AFGPanel 9/n

@AmiraJadoon, Assistant Professor @WestPointSOSH & @CTCWP, who just published an excellent paper on #ISIS in #Afghanistan & #Pakistan (ctc.usma.edu/broken-not-def…) #AFGPanel 10/n

Before I turn it over to the panelists, here’s how we’ll be doing the discussion: each panelist will begin with an opening tweet thread—I’ll link to those in this thread. After their opening remarks, I’ll moderate a Q&A. #AFGPanel 11/n

PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS so I can pose them to the panel in an ordered way. If you reply directly in this or the panelists’ threads, we may not respond. Also, please be civil & respectful in your Qs/comments. #AFGPanel 12/n

With that, I’ll ask @MaroWardak to kick off the discussion with her opening thread! #AFGPanel 13/n

Here are @MaroWardak’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 14/n

https://twitter.com/MaroWardak/status/1243525170112978946

Many thanks for those thoughts @MaroWardak! I’d like to next ask @OmSamad to provide his opening thread. #AFGPanel 15/n

Here are @OmSamad’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 16/n

https://twitter.com/OmSamad/status/1243528354726391808

Many thanks to @OmSamad for those insights! I’d like to next ask @MichaelKugelman to provide his opening thread. #AFGPanel 17/n

Here are @MichaelKugelman’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 18/n

https://twitter.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1243529894564450311

Many thanks for those thoughtful remarks @MichaelKugelman! I’d like to next ask @AmiraJadoon to provide her opening thread. #AFGPanel 19/n

Here are @AmiraJadoon’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 20/n

https://twitter.com/AmiraJadoon/status/1243531184686186498

Many thanks for your insightful comments @AmiraJadoon! #AFGPanel 21/n

I’d now like to open the Q&A portion of our discussion. Again, PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS & I will pose them to the panel. I’ll post the Qs & link to the As in this thread. #AFGPanel 22/n

1st Q is for @OmSamad: Do you think Ghani/Abdullah actually believe that the US will let #Afghanistan fail given our enormous sunk cost? Do they see the US as bluffing? #AFGPanel 23/n

2nd Q is for @MaroWardak: There was a mediation attempt by a group of Afghan women between Ghani/Abdullah this week—how did that go? Is this a promising path for getting past their differences? #AFGPanel 24/n

3rd Q is for @AmiraJadoon: Will #ISIS-K continue to have a presence or expand in #Afghanistan & #Pakistan if the #Taliban reconcile with the Afghan govt? #AFGPanel 25/n

4th Q is for @MichaelKugelman: #Pakistan is used to the US leaving the region (e.g., after Soviet withdrawal). How might this announcement change PAK’s stance vis-à-vis a peace deal w/the #Taliban? #AFGPanel 26/n

Here is @MaroWardak's reply:

https://twitter.com/MaroWardak/status/1243534793146597376

#AFGPanel

5th Q is for @OmSamad: How do you see COVID-19 impacting the #Afghanistan peace process? Will it bring Afghan leaders together? Or just make things harder? Why? #AFGPanel 27/n

6th Q is for @AmiraJadoon: If/when US forces leave #Afghanistan, what does the future of #counterterrorism ops against #ISIS-K & #alQaeda look like? Would the #Taliban be a CT partner? Can they be trusted in that regard? #AFGPanel 28/n

7th Q is for @MaroWardak: What is in store for Afghans if the country is unable to reach a deal that delivers a political settlement & ceasefire? Is another civil war likely? #AFGPanel 29/n

8th Q is for @OmSamad: What are your thoughts on the list of negotiators for talks w/the #Taliban that @ashrafghani announced yesterday? Is it actually and/or perceived to be inclusive enough? #AFGPanel 30/n

9th Q is for @MichaelKugelman: There aren’t signs that #Pakistan has abandoned polices of strategic depth & use of terrorist groups nor have they made assurances to the US of that. W/o a change of behavior by PAK, can a peace deal in #Afghanistan work? #AFGPanel 31/n

10th Q is for @AmiraJadoon: What does #Taliban control of #Afghanistan look like if the govt falls? Is the TB still a host of #alQaeda/other jihadist groups who seek to attack the US/west? #AFGPanel 32/n

Almost out of time! Last Q is for @OmSamad: Would #China, #Russia, or others (EU? #India? Iran? Gulf states?) step in to backfill the US aid cuts? #AFGPanel 33/n

Here is @MaroWardak's answer: #AFGPanel

https://twitter.com/MaroWardak/status/1243540001851355136

I can’t believe how fast that hour went! This was a fascinating discussion & I *really* appreciate your attention & the time of our amazing panelists. Please join me in thanking @MaroWardak @OmSamad @AmiraJadoon @MichaelKugelman for their insights! #AFGPanel 34/n

With that, I’ll close the panel. Please take care of yourselves/others & stay healthy! END. #AFGPanel 35/35