(Thread) While this chart is frightening, reality is even more dire. The contagion rate in New York City is actually around 3 per thousand (vs New York State's 2 per thousand). This places NYC just behind Italy's hard-hit Lombardy Region in per capita cases.@narativlive #Covid19 
2. The fatality rate in New York City is also rising. The current rate is about 1.7%, a far cry from Lombardy's 10%, but as hospitals strain from overcrowding and frontline workers battle infections, the number of deaths will increase. That's why #Covid19 is such a killer.
3. The growth in the contagion rate will likely max out at around 50% according to Mayor De Bblasio. At Lombardy's fatality rate of 10% were talking about 45,000 deaths in #NYC. This could be where we're heading absent a lockdown.#CoronavirusOutbreak
4. New York City's subways are running, people are driving, bars are open, deliveries made, planes landing. Until these activities stop, both cases and deaths will grow. Keep in mind many of the cases in NYC are still considered active and contagious. #Coronavirus
6. The only way to effectively reduce the spread, absent a vaccine, is a national lockdown. If Trump won’t do it, the governors should. Either way #NewYorkCIty has to freeze everything for three weeks or longer to flatten the curve. #COVID19
7. The silver lining is that with so many infected people, you also get a sizeable immune population. That's one reason for the push to develop an #SaturdayMorning antibody tests. Once people have immunity they could get back out and help restart the economy.
