Bad situations occur if there is too little #socialdistancing (upper panel) or too much, causing a second wave of deaths (lower, an extreme case). Total mortality = TM; Green curves = #infections; blue = #ICU cases... 
Here’s what happens if you release under 39 year-olds first. Here, either 2/3rds are released (assuming 1/3 live with older relatives; upper panels) or ALL of them are let out (lower panels). Total deaths drop from 1.5M to 900K to 390K...
Study conclusions:
* Age-targeting for release has the potential to reduce total mortalities, even compared to optimal #SocialDistancing across all age groups.
* Initial relaxations must be responsive to conditions on the ground, e.g., by monitoring ICU utilization...
* Age-targeting for release has the potential to reduce total mortalities, even compared to optimal #SocialDistancing across all age groups.
* Initial relaxations must be responsive to conditions on the ground, e.g., by monitoring ICU utilization...
* The return to normal must proceed cautiously & be informed by the number of cases. Caveats include: no consideration for weather, school closings, or ICU adaptations to surges. Either way, let’s hope what politicians do in summer 2020 will be science-based🤞...
Here’s the paper by @WesPegden @ChikinaLab posted April 8th before peer-review, titled ‘Modeling strict age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19’: arxiv.org/abs/2004.04144
Note: total mortality in US is estimated to be lower than initially predicted for the 1st wave, but still high at ~61K, down from 86K. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
