Thread by @CarinaTKing

As said in the article, I am keen to engage in a meaningful and constructive dialogue on #COVID19SWEDEN, based on science... so lets explore some of the science in the points raised. svd.se/brittisk-exper… via
@SvD

1. The role of #asymptomatic and #presymptomatic transmission. As previously Tweeted, there are clear examples of #asymptomatic transmission... including through non-household contact: #communitytransmission nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…

2. Here is a pre-print of a review which reports multiple examples: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (as always, caution with pre-prints, but the take home here is there are several published examples)

3. So it would be great to see 🙏🙏🙏:

Evidence that #asymptomatic #CommunityTransmission is not driving #COVID19 spread, given there is evidence for. Especially considering that infections entered 2/3 of care homes.... this points to the guidelines being insufficient.

4. On school closure, I agree, there is not concrete evidence for, but there isn't concrete evidence against either... thelancet.com/journals/lanch…. Given this, #transparency is needed for decisions, so #teachers #parents and #children can understand the risks and feel protected

5. It is hard to quantify the risk of infection without an #R0. R0=1 means you infect on average 1 person - the figure given by @Folkhalsomynd this week. Is that really "low risk" within a household? In fact, estimates in different settings have been as high as R0=5....

6. It would be great to see 🙏🙏🙏:

The #R0 for Stockholm, and the different regions of Sweden, with the calculations for how it was estimated (see example from Spain: portalcne.isciii.es/covid19/)

7. Finally, the time-lag and why I am still concerned. Yes, deaths now are from infections 2-4 weeks ago... @Folkhalsomynd introduced increased #physicaldistancing 2+3wks ago... so we should start seeing a decline now (note: excluded Easter data due to reporting delay)

8. I sincerely hope the exponential #COVID19SWEDEN mortality growth stops next week. As @cecilia_naucler said, I'll also pop some champagne 🍾. But the other countries in this ⬆️graph have all implemented #TESTTESTTEST or #lockdown... evidence would suggest these work...

9. So it would be great to see 🙏🙏🙏:

#Transparency in the science, reasoning for policies clearly communicated (adapted for different cultures) to the public, and an open forum for informed discussion.

And that #AdvisoryGroup announced... folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…