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Some investors, analysts seem to think, that #Equity Bear Market is over and we will rally to ATH. Imo this is naive taking the severe blow to economy into consideration - and the size of the equity bubble which has burst. Some comparisons to earlier Bear Markets provide heads-up
First, Bear Market 2000-02. Rather mild recession due to burst of IT-bubble (somewhat confined) despite extreme Market Cap. to GDP of ~141%. Monetary stimulus had effect as Fed Funds rate >6% at entry of crisis. Still Bear Market for ~638 days and decline of ~50% before bottom
Second, Great Recession 2007-09. Strong recession. Close to Financial World collapse driven by Housing bubble bust. Market Cap. to GDP only at 109%. Monetary stimulus opp. were stretched - QE was introduced. Yet Bear Market for ~517 days with a ~57% decline in stock market value.
Third, The Everything Bubble (trigger: Corona). Severe recession? Monetary stimulus tool useless to real economy? Complete economic collapse widespread! Market Cap. to GDP ~151%. You think the Bear Market will only last for 72 days - with equity decline of 35%? Really?!
This current crisis will drive the largest Bear Market we will ever experience. Major fall-outs: bankruptcies, Pensions fund & sovereign state crisis, political and societal turmoil, etc. Decline in stock market 60-75% over 2-3 yrs. This is THE major crisis in Kondratiev's Winter
Part of the service on my website will be to identify the bottom of this major Bear Market. Help subscribers steering clear of mixed messages from market analysts, media and banks - and be ready to enter, as real LT-bottom is in.
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