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#Gold No changes to my LT target: 800-890 USD! We have massive BEARISH PATTERN and divergence! Wedge may be done and hence crash imminent! However, we may(!) see a rather strong rally beginning of next week! Why? See next tweet!
The BEARISH pattern implies, that we must be looking for beginning of Decline. Short term, we may(!) have first 5 wave decline - yet we have not seen acceleration (w3). So, wave (2) may still be playing out - with pot. wave up to 1740s - generating all-good feeling!
This would align #Gold structure with #EURUSD structure. Hence, a ST rally before the crash sets in for both #Gold and #Euro. Strong #USD will crush Precious Metals and all other currencies. Take care!!
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Some investors, analysts seem to think, that #Equity Bear Market is over and we will rally to ATH. Imo this is naive taking the severe blow to economy into consideration - and the size of the equity bubble which has burst. Some comparisons to earlier Bear Markets provide heads-up
First, Bear Market 2000-02. Rather mild recession due to burst of IT-bubble (somewhat confined) despite extreme Market Cap. to GDP of ~141%. Monetary stimulus had effect as Fed Funds rate >6% at entry of crisis. Still Bear Market for ~638 days and decline of ~50% before bottom
Second, Great Recession 2007-09. Strong recession. Close to Financial World collapse driven by Housing bubble bust. Market Cap. to GDP only at 109%. Monetary stimulus opp. were stretched - QE was introduced. Yet Bear Market for ~517 days with a ~57% decline in stock market value.
Read 6 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
#SP500 Imo getting very close to start of next major decline! Chart difficult to read (sorry!). But so many lines in the sand here around 2920-2950 (on 4 hour chart). May over-shoot these levels -but soon major crash will set in. Illiquid deflation phase continues. Take care!! 🙏
As we can expect A (circle) = C (circle) we may see next decline bottom out ~1700-1850-area = A (blue). Major deflationary bust about to play out. Take care!!
My VIX model which predicted explosion in #VIX tells me, that we are about to see even stronger phase. Nothing rallies or declines in straight line. Hence, we currently see correction wave B - before strong take off in wave C. 2½ yrs of RSI divergence is not solved in 1 blow-up!
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