Thread by @Sunil_Sawhney

Today many countries have an interesting #paradox.

Do we continue #lockdown for a very long time and wipe out our economies or let a few people die and keep the economies going.

The #ProtogorasParadox succinctly captures the #paradox of our times !!

I am sure most of you know about the #ProtagorasParadox.

In case you don’t, please read on this #TooGoodNotToShare explanation received recently from a friend ..

I am told, The story goes to over 2000 years ago and is about a lawyer in Greece, with the name Protagoras.

A young student, Euthalos, requested to apprentice under him but was unable to pay the fees.

The student struck a deal saying, “I will pay your fee, the day I win my first case in the court”.

The Teacher agreed.

When the training was complete and a few years had elapsed without the student paying up, the teacher decided to sue the student in the #CourtOfLaw

The teacher thought to himself “If I win the case, the student will have to pay me, as the case is about non - payment of dues.

And if I lose the case, the student will still have to pay me, because he would have won his first case. Either way I will get paid’.

The student’s view was “If I win the case, I won’t have to pay the teacher, as the case is about my non-payment of fees.

And if I lose the case, I don’t have to pay him since I wouldn’t have won my first case yet. Either way I will not pay the teacher.’

This is known as #ProtagorasParadox.

Whichever way you look, both have equally convincing arguments & one can both, support the teacher or the student & still wont be wrong.

Those in medical practice often come across such situations, either in making a diagnostic or therapeutic decision.

One physician can recommend a course of treatment based on scientific evidence and another can recommend a diametrically opposite course, again based on medical evidence. Right or wrong, but some merit would exist on both sides.

Often, the physician himself is having an internal struggle to make a decision about the most appropriate course of action, Protagoras & Euthalos are arguing, in their minds, to do this or to do that.

The horns of dilemma are tearing him apart.

But what prompted this essay was a tweet by #DonaldTrump “hope the cure is not worse than the disease”. I hate to say, but I find some merit in this tweet.

In our global attempt to flatten the COVID curve, one hopes that we do not flatten the global economy curve.

The question is what’s the best way forward

One group recommends #TotalLockdown to break the transmission chain, based on evidence from China.They managed to control the spread of the virus by ruthless lock down & 3 months later they are showing control of disease in Wuhan.

On the other hand, the other school of thought is "graded isolation & protection of elderly and very young and those with co-morbidities", let it spread amongst the young and healthy, after all the disease ultimately will be controlled when we achieve ‘herd immunity’.

The medical community is divided in these two groups. To enforce complete lockdown or graded isolation ?

To complicate the issue the epidemiologists have joined the bandwagon with cacophony of statistical analysis. From "Rosy" to "Dooms day" predictions.

If, we don’t do a complete lockdown , some say maybe a million people will die in 1 year. Others say, No, more like 90 million will die in 1 year. Whose data analysis is correct ?
Some suggest do nothing, nature will take over in a few months and all will be well.

They also quote historical data to justify their recommendations. On whose inputs should we base our disaster management strategy.

Then come the economists with their dooms-day predictions.

If this continues till May/June our medical resources will be overwhelmed, agriculture will suffer, food shortages will occur & production will come to a standstill. There will be an economic crisis of the proportions that world has not seen ever.

So, break this lockdown nonsense and let’s get back to work, as usual.

What will our *political masters* do ? My guess is that most of them will listen to medical experts, epidemiologists and economists.

Then, they will decide what course of action will ensure their survival, what will get them people’s votes and they will run with that. At present, ‘Lockdown' finds favour with them.

Gradually, people will get tired of lockdown and demand, "let life go on".

Then with equally convincing arguments the governments will say the time has now come to lift the blockade, we have controlled the contagion, we have won. Unfortunately, the costs in either case will be huge, both lives and money !

Incidentally the #ProtagorasParadox has not been resolved till date. Students in law school still hold mock trial and give arguments on both sides wthout any resolution of the dispute.

Really a perplexing situation.

Thanks for reading 🙏

#HappySunday