Thread by @hayward_katy

So here goes...
The 1st of 4 threads on political attitudes in @ARK_info NI Life&Times Survey #nilt2019 #NILifeTimes @UKandEU

This one is on *Brexit & Irish Unity*

TL;DR: #Brexit means differences between Unionism & Nationalism aren't just about aspiration but expectation.
1/7

The slight majority see #Brexit as having made a United Ireland more likely.
But the absolute majority see it as making no difference to when they're in favour of a UI.

Decline since 2018 in those thinking Brexit makes a UI less likely (10%) & makes them less in favour (12%)
2/7

There are interesting party differences here, which fall not so much on unionist/nationalist lines as pro-Remain/Leave.

Majority of SF, SDLP & Alliance supporters believe Brexit makes Irish unity more likely.

For SDLP this = a 25 point & SF an18 point increase since 2018.

3/7

Does this change people’s minds on whether they want Irish unity or not?

Unionists say Brexit makes no difference to their views; Nationalists are saying that it makes them more in favour.

Interesting to compare results with those who are Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.

4/7

2018/19 = big year of change here.

⬆️4/10 Alliance supporters say Brexit makes them more in favour of Irish unity

⬆️Huge rise in SF & SDLP being more in favour of UI

➡️DUP moving away from being ‘less in favour’ to saying it makes no difference

⏹️UUP quite unchanged.

5/7

We are past the stage where #Brexit is just a concept.
It is now the context.

It is a minority position in NI to think Brexit makes a United Ireland less likely or to be less in favour of it as a result of Brexit.

This adds a certain frisson to #Brexit NI policymaking...

6/7

More threads to follow....

But I just want to take this opportunity to pay particular tribute to @BenRosher for his Trojan work on this with me, which has been simply brilliant.

@GlasgowQStep @DtpNine @QUBSSESW should be rightly proud.📊🤓🎓 🌟

7/7

As promised @IAGlen : those two slides in patterned and bordered versions.

Does Brexit make a United Ireland more likely?
2018 compared to 2019 results, broken down by which party the respondent would vote for.
#nilt2019

And does Brexit make you more in favour of a United Ireland?

2018 to 2019 results side by side, by party supporter.

#NILifeTimes