Thread by @Jhdharrison1

THREAD:

1v1s are incredibly important situations for GKs to master as they correspond to 35% of all goals scored in the 19/20 #PremierLeague!

In this thread I will show how effective various 1v1 strategies are at making saves.

I’m sure #GKcoaches will be v interested in this!

I’ve analysed every single 1v1 situation in the 19/20 #PremierLeague (600+ situations) & calculated using logistic regression the optimum strategy a GK could use to maximise their chance of making the save depending on the situation location & the build-up leading to the chance.

I found that GKs use the following 5 strategies to save 1v1s:

1. Wait deep & then react to the shot
2. Engage & then react to the shot
3. Engage & smother the ball
4. Engage & spread
5. Engage & block

#PremierLeague #GKUnion

The last few decades have seen a revolution in the techniques used to stop 1v1s. Old school GKs would only use:

Engage & React
or
Engage & Smother

Now mainly due to the influence of #Futsal, GKs often use the 3 other techniques.

But are these modern strategies actually better?

By analysing every 1v1 situation in this years #PremierLeague & tracking how successful each technique was at making the save & how this varied with the situations location & build-up I can produce save probability maps for each strategy assuming a given build-up.

#GKUnion #GK

Here is the save probability for the wait & react technique assuming a 1v1 with the ball on the ground & where the GK was not out of position (a traditional 1v1).

Waiting maximises reaction time but doesn’t narrow the goal:
Long range = ✅strategy
Close range = ❌strategy

Here is the save probability for the engage & react technique again assuming a traditional 1v1.

Engaging then reacting cuts reaction time massively without really effecting the ball therefore I find it is always a bad strategy!

All distances = ❌strategy

Here is the save probability for the engage & smother technique again assuming a traditional 1v1 occurs.

The smother does well at covering all of the lower part of the goal if the angle is tight but it is always vulnerable to the dink.

Wide = ✅strategy
Central = ❌strategy

Here is the save probability for the engage & block technique again assuming a traditional 1v1 occurs.

The block behaves in a similar way to the smother, it is difficult to beat from a tight angle as it fills the goal but crucially it also covers the dink/megs.

Here is the save probability for the engage & spread technique again assuming a traditional 1v1 occurs.

The spread excels vs central shots as it blocks a large portion of both sides of the goal but it is vulnerable to the megs when out wide.

Central=✅strategy
Wide=❌strategy

By combining all of the save probability maps I can find the optimum technique a GK can use when attempting to save the ball during a traditional 1v1 when the ball is in a certain location.

Given the strength of the wait, block, & spread are we coaching these strategies enough?

Conclusions:

1. For 1v1s outside of ~13.5yrds the optimum strategy is to not engage but stay deep & react to the shot/touch.

2. For central 1v1s the “spread” saves more often than any other technique while for wide 1v1s the “block” saves more often than any other technique.

3. The modern futsal inspired techniques seem to be superior to the old school ones for regular 1v1s.

4. Engage & react is never the optimum strategy while engage & smother is only the optimum strategy if the GK is out of position when the 1v1 occurs ie after a fast low cross.

The best strategy always seems to be the one were the GK covers the area which is most easily hit by the striker from that location.

This makes sense but more research needs to be done, however, if you aren’t coaching/practicing the spread & block I highly recommend you start!

To find out more about none traditional 1v1s (ie from fast low crosses or when the ball is in the air) read the full write up I will tweet in the near future!

The key point is the smother is still a very useful technique especially when the GK is out of position during the 1v1.

Thank you for taking the time to read this thread!

I hope it was understandable! As noted earlier a full write up will be available soon (I will tweet a link)!

If anyone has any questions/requests for a particular GKs 1v1 map ask away & I will do my best to answer/tweet it!