Thread by @Jhdharrison1

THREAD:

Dean #Henderson vs David #DeGea
#PremierLeague Shotstopping 19/20

As requested I will compare the shot stopping performances of the two potential #ManchesterUnited number 1’s.

There will be statistics & 1v1 plots!

🧤⚽️👑

#MUFC #GKAnalysis #GKUnion

Firstly let’s look at post shot expected goals conceded.

@StatsBomb’s PSExG model takes the position of the shot, the position of the defenders, the speed of the shot & the placement of the shot into account in order to calculate whether an Avg GK would save it.

Using this model #DeGea has played almost exactly to the level of an average #PremierLeague goalkeeper & has conceded -0.2 goals more than expected.

#Henderson on the other hand has saved #SheffieldUnited +6.5 more goals than an avg GK would be expected to!

If we break this down into “regular shots” & 1v1s we actually find that that both GKs have performed far better this season against regular shots than 1v1s.

This isn’t unexpected as both goalkeepers are known for their phenomenal reflexes & ability to stop long range shots.

#Henderson 1v1 situations plot:

#Henderson has saved #SUFC 0.66 more goals than an avg GK due to his prowess durning 1v1 situations.

Amazingly when he has made the decision to use the optimal technique he has saved 11/13 (85%) 1v1s!

What I really like about #Henderson’s 1v1 situations plot is that he can comfortably use all 4 saving techniques.

He isn’t scared to hold deep & react, he can come flying out & starfish spread, he can narrow the angle & long barrier block, & he can be brave & dive into feet

An important point is that he is only young & therefore he has an optimal decision% of only 46% is very low (avg GK 55%).

He has shuffled forwards & engaged the striker & then attempted to react 5 times, all 5 times he has conceded (♦️).

He has also opted not to dive at feet 4 times, when it would have been the optimal, & on 3 occasions he has conceded.

#Henderson is young & his decison making will improve. If his 1v1 execution when he makes the right decision remains excellent the outcome will be unreal!

#DeGea 1v1 situations plot:

#DeGea has conceded 0.38 more goals than one would expect the avg GK to have done during 1v1s.

However, this year his decision making has been excellent making the optimal decision during the 1v1s 70% of the time (Avg GK 55%)

#MUFC

#DeGea’s issues 1v1 have been the same for the last few years.

1. He often engages the CF too early & drops a long barrier too far from goal offering the CF a simple finish.

2. He often stays too deep on shots from close range where he should coming flying out & spread himself.

However, it hasn’t all been bad from #DeGea as I mentioned he has made the optimal decision 1v1 70% of the time & as usual his execution of the long barrier & wait & react techniques have allowed him to make some big saves. Potentially & upturn in form is imminent. #MUFC

#Henderson has played very similarly to #DeGea of old saving #SheffieldUnited 5.84 more goals than expected from regular shots while also saving 0.66 more goals than expected from 1v1 situations.

While #DeGea has had his worse season to date but has still saved #MUFC 0.18 more goals than avg from regular shots. But he has in fact conceded 0.38 goals more than expected during 1v1 situations leading to him costing Manchester United 0.2 goals more than an avg GK this year.

The crazy thing about #Henderson is his decision making has been below avg (an easy thing to improve as a young GK) so potentially there is room for improvement!

While #DeGea is already making good decisions & doesn’t really have anywhere to massively improve in this regard.

Anyway they are the statistics, you can make your own decison as to who you think should start at #MUFC next year & whether #Henderson can only improve & whether #DeGea has already peaked.

Feel free to ask any questions below

😊 #GKUnion #GKAnalysis