1/ Q: I want to visit older family members soon, so I went and got a #PCR test for #COVID__19 (i.e., the kind that detects *current* infection). My test came back negative, so I am in the clear, right?
A: Not necessarily. It is possible you got a false negative test result.
2/ After you are exposed to #SARSCoV2, the amount of #virus in your body builds up over time. It reaches its highest level right before symptom onset.
It can take 2-14 days (average of 5-6) from the time of exposure to when symptoms develop: a.k.a. the incubation period.
3/ Based on this incubation period, and because it is ideal to identify cases before they even develop symptoms, #publichealth experts currently recommend people get tested about 4 days AFTER a suspected exposure.
4/ It is possible, however, that someone could be infected, but not yet have built up enough virus to generate a positive result at the time they are tested.
This results in a #falsenegative.
5/ As outlined in this @TheAtlantic article: theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
the false negative rate of PCR tests was estimated in one model to be 100% on the day you are exposed, 40% on day 4 after exposure and 20% on day 8 after exposure.
6/ Overall, if you have reason to think you were recently exposed, consider that a negative result MAY be a false negative.
Keep #selfmonitoring symptoms. And remember: the safest thing to do is self-quarantine for 14 days before visiting relatives at high risk of complications.
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1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).