Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Rick Rieder Profile picture
@RickRieder
Jul 22, 2020 • 8 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
It was a privilege to recently speak with @LHSummers at the institutional #BlackRockFutureForum on a wide range of topics, and in addition to the highlights that follow, keep an eye out for summary sessions from the event on @blackrock’s The Bid podcast in August.
Prof. Summers argued that the proper paradigm for viewing the #economic #recovery is the tripartite series: 1) collapse, 2) sharp bounce back and 3) a long slog. Unfortunately, he thinks most of the bounce back has occurred already and we’re in for an economic slog now.
He continued by suggesting that the aftershocks to be most concerned with were: 1) continued deterioration of the #Covid situation in the U.S., 2) forthcoming problems in the loan and commercial #RealEstate sectors, and 3) possible #EmergingMarketsDebt crises.
We disagreed somewhat on the #economic prospects for #Europe, where I think the region is emerging from the #Covid health crisis in better shape than the U.S., starting #equity valuations are cheaper…
… and from a #policy standpoint, the willingness to functionally mutualize #debt through the #EurozoneRecoveryFund is a game changer for the region.
By contrast, @LHSummers argued that there was still a complex array of political considerations in #Europe that needed to play out (particularly in a post-Merkel world), #risk premia in the region were inadequate…
…and the U.S.’s #financial institutions are much stronger than those in #Europe, which all present risks to #investment in the region’s #markets.
As always, we’d like to thank the clients that joined in the Forum this year, and for those unable to attend, we hope the forthcoming summary Podcast will be useful!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Rick Rieder

Rick Rieder Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RickRieder

Rick Rieder Profile picture
Mar 10
Last week’s jobs report continued a non-stop barrage of information-flow. Indeed, it seems as if there have been very few times in markets where one has had to interpret so much disparate, and at times conflicting, data relative to the economy and influences on it.
In a way, it does harken back to the days of pumping quarters into the Asteroids video game while trying to assimilate all the material coming at you at once.
The payroll report also comes with a load of footnotes attached to it, in terms of assessing what it really means for the state of current labor conditions. For instance, the reporting survey was conducted following a period of significant job displacement in California related to the wildfires and other adverse weather conditions around the U.S., in the midst of a changing immigration picture, more labor strikes, and the beginning of the impact of DOGE on federal government employment.Image
Read 10 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Feb 13
Over the past few days, we’ve received information that is likely to hold an impact on the market’s perception of the trajectory of interest rates, and will have broader market influences as well. The Consumer Price Index (or #CPI) is the most followed of #inflation measures (it gained a greater than expected 0.47% on a headline month-over-month basis and 3.0% year-over-year), and particularly Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy components), which increased strongly at 0.45% month-over-month and 3.29% year-over-year.
Yesterday’s CPI report, as always, was interesting in that there was a mix of strength in some areas and trend-developments in others. Both Core CPI and Core Services (ex-shelter) displayed significant gains, while the shelter category picked up by a smaller amount. Even within shelter, the much-followed Owners’ Equivalent Rent measure (or OER) was well behaved at 0.31% month-over-month, but lodging saw a big gain after having declined in the previous month.Image
As a result, to us the most critical element in the recent CPI reports has in fact been OER, and the trajectory of shelter inflation. That’s because both we and the market had been expecting that figure to trend lower.
Read 9 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Feb 10
The world continues to watch for a pathway to lower interest rates, but despite a modestly softer headline in nonfarm payrolls last week, of 143,000 jobs gained, underlying employment conditions continued to display a resilience that makes any @federalreserve rate cutting in the near- to intermediate-term appear unlikely.
Indeed, at 0.48% month-over-month and more than 4% year-over-year the wage growth looked solid, unemployment declined slightly to 4.0%, and prior month payroll revisions were 100,000 jobs greater than previously reported. So, all in all, the labor markets still appear to be in a good place.
In our view, for a Fed rate cut to be back on the table, we would need to see two, or so, consecutively softer employment reports, and that is for the central bank to even consider resuming its rate cutting cycle.
Read 10 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jan 16
As we have argued in recent months, a great deal of progress has been made in combatting high levels of post-pandemic inflation. Still, the likelihood is that most of the meaningful progress is behind us at this stage, and inflation may remain sticky at levels higher than the @federalreserve would ideally like.
Indeed, yesterday’s headline CPI increased 0.39% month-over-month, greater than its gains from last month, largely due to energy price gains. That resulted in headline CPI rising to 2.89%, from 2.75% the month prior, on a year-over-year basis, amid unfavorable base effects.
The core CPI measure gained 0.23% month-over-month, and 3.24% year-over-year. Taking a step back to provide some context, the average annual rate of core CPI inflation from 2000 through 2023 was 2.37%, but for 2024 this measure resided at 3.24%, illustrating vividly why the #Fed wants to see further progress on #inflation.
Read 11 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jan 13
What a way to kick off 2025!
Last Friday’s #JobsReport gave us more revealing data on the status of the jobs market in the U.S. at this stage, and it certainly continued to describe an economy in very healthy shape.
The evolution of hiring conditions is something that we are very focused upon, and we will continue to be so over the coming weeks and months. With a new Administration coming in, policies such as immigration reform, government hiring (or closures and layoffs), and incentives to spend more aggressively in places like in energy, will influence the ‘to and fro’ of job-demand in the country.
And furthermore, the @federalreserve has cited- almost as perquisite- that softness in labor conditions would have to be in place to continue to move the Fed Funds policy rate to lower levels, and we didn’t see a lot of motivation for in this data.
Read 11 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Dec 19, 2024
Yesterday’s @federalreserve move signals something of an ending to a story that has played out for several months now, in terms of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle, associated with what were significantly restrictive interest rates.
The #FOMC cut policy interest rates by a quarter-point, to the 4.25% to 4.50% range, and communicated more #hawkishly through the updated dot plot/Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), as well as during the Chair’s press conference. To us, this suggests that we’ve entered a new phase of the rate cutting cycle.
We have often argued that the more elevated Funds rate creates great pressure on lower income cohorts through the housing, credit card, and auto finance channels than is worthwhile at this stage, particularly given where inflation has decelerated to.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(