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Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
@Bacharelhalabi
Jul 24, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Tried to play the smartass tourist in #Istanbul today and head to #HagiaSophia to witness this historical moment, regardless what I think of the decision.
Traffic is crazy, roads are blocked, metro stations barely functioning for both security and over-crowdedness reasons, while thousands of people march in the middle of the streets towards the museum-turned-mosque with jubilant cries for Takbir filling the air.
I stand in awe of the whole scene/situation.

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More from @Bacharelhalabi

Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Mar 5
#Iraq's fiscal break-even oil price will be above $90/bl in 2024. Here's why per the @IMFNews who concluded last weekend its 2024 Article IV consultation with #Iraq authorities:
-Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion... #oott

1/4
-but medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly
-significant fiscal adjustment required, through controlling public wage bill, to ensure fiscal sustainability & reduction of oil dependence
-Int'l reserves increased to $112bn.

2/4
-while expansionary budget was under-executed in 2023, fiscal balance declined from surplus of 10.8pc of GDP in 2022 to a deficit of 1.3pc in 2023, due to lower oil revenues and an increase in expenditure (mostly a result of salaries and pensions).

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Sep 10, 2021
Fun fact about #Lebanon's newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs:

A battle over the Lebanese embassy in DC took place in 1989, when Abdallah BouHabib was the ambassador. The Taif Agreement had gone into effect and Elias Hraoui was elected President in December of that year.
Hraoui, immediately fired Michel Aoun from all his self-proclaimed posts, removed #Lebanon’s veteran ambassador to Washington, Bouhabib himself, and handed control of the embassy to the No. 2 diplomat at the time, Sleiman Rassi.
Yet Aoun - who was holding out with 20,000 troops at the presidential palace in Baabda refusing to recognize the Hraoui gov't - sent Bouhabib a telegram ordering him to stay put.

BouHabib, a staunch Aoun supporter, continued to occupy the ambassador’s office and residence.
Read 6 tweets
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Sep 27, 2020
Many fallacies are often perpetuated in media [esp. Arab] about alliances & geopolitics in the MENA region, mainly for propaganda purposes. For instance, since penning the normalization deal with #Israel, state-sponsored media in the #UAE insists that #Iran & #Turkey inch closer.
However, here’s a microcosm of how intricate the relation of the two is:

🇹🇷 & 🇮🇷 are at the opposing ends in: 🇮🇶, 🇸🇾 & now Azerbaijan/#Armenia; they overlap in #Libya & on Palestine. One could argue that if Ankara was to invest more in #Lebanon, it’ll be at odds with Tehran.
#Iran has remained largely silent on the dispute between Turkey & others in the East Med.

With Syria in mind, developments in Armenia [which I predict will be contained] could lead to another front of Russian-Iranian alignment in face of Turkey.
Read 4 tweets
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Sep 27, 2020
When in doubt, take a boat trip around the #Bosphorus, #Istanbul, you’ll come across some gems—just like I did today!

First, the F244; a Barbaros-class frigate—the most modern frigates in the Turkish Navy; sunbathing in the canal.
Second, the DUGI OTOK creation oil tanker, carrying Russian crude escorted by a Turkish coast guard boat to the Port of #Istanbul.
Croatian** 😆
Read 4 tweets
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Sep 26, 2020
Mustafa Adib is not the hero some people are portraying him to be. But Adib, banking on French support & the suffocating situation on the ground, had a stronger hand in negotiating his government formation process - unlike his predecessors. The PM-designate though that:
•parties will cave-in following the Aug 4 explosion & Int’l pressure, resulting in them facilitating the formation of a gov’t that can enact certain reforms and tap into some $$s.

However, reality hit hard. #Lebanon, as usual, is just another piece of the regional chessboard.
Hence why, regional patrons of the sectarian ruling mafia decided to “freeze” the situation until November 3rd. When the Iranians [Hezbollah] and the Saudis [economic support: CEDRE/IMF] figure out who will occupy the Oval Office next, concessions & compromise become possible.
Read 6 tweets
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020
Lebanese local sources reporting a massive explosion in the southern village Ain-Qana, in the Nabatieh Governorate.
No official reports on what blew up in Ain-Qana yet. However, local sources are saying it might've been an explosion in a gas station.

Another angle to the explosion.

(Please dismiss any "theories" about the explosion until further notice).

Read 16 tweets

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