Today’s #JobsReport, which witnessed nearly 1.8 million #jobs gained in the month of July, was stronger than many anticipated, yet it also displayed some signs of slowdown in #labor #market improvement.
The report shows that the pace of #job-gain acceleration has now slowed markedly, and it is our best guess that the rapid rate of return to #work will now exhibit a very deliberate pace of rebound from here.
That’s particularly the case for some sectors, such as #retail and #leisure #hospitality, where the slowing in improvement was even more pronounced.
Still, the #economy as a whole can ironically do reasonably well, as it has over the past few months, highlighted by improving #manufacturing data, #consumption and #housing data, etc…
We think that the next few months could see a very reasonable rate of #economic growth, even with a slower pace of #job recovery.
Finally, despite today’s solid #JobsReport, a more sober reality in terms of hiring will begin to settle in, but that is also a reality that will keep the @federalreserve on hold in terms of interest #rates for a very long time.
The #Fed will also be increasingly willing to provide more aggressive forward guidance and additional #asset-purchases to absorb the heavier @USTreasury supply associated with greater levels of #fiscal stimulus.
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