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No one is really rejoicing the the government of Hassan Diab resigned, because no one really expected Diab to alter the status quo. He was appointed to absorb people's rage, and eventually be blamed as a scapegoat for when the economy completely collapses.
Then the #BeirutExplosion happened and threw the entire establishment into disarray. Diab was pressured to resign, or risk taking the blame for the explosion. #Macron's visit sent a signal that change will inevitably come. Elites are now scrambling to hedge their positions.
President Aoun & FPM will likely double down on their alliance with #Hezbollah and March-8 alliance, but it will bring their demise. The Christian street isn't as wedded to the resistance axis as its Shiite counterpart. International isolation of Lebanon will cause FPM to implode
Hezbo doesnt have a lot of options. They have a strong support base, but they must work with despised political actors. They won't gamble on any government or system that does not offer them guarantees of supporting their right to resist #Israel. AMAL won't deviate from Hezbo.
#Hariri's diminished influence & the collapse of his Future empire cost him valuable patronage opportunities. He lost favor with regional & International sponsors. He has many competitors on the Sunni street for the office of the PM. But, he remains the elite's favorite treasurer
Lebanese Forces stand to gain from the disintegration of FPM. However, the war legacy of #Geagea will curb the party's organic growth. LF illicit capitalization on the #LebanonProtests was obvious and condemned. The #Kataab are in a better position to lead the opposition
People on the street are outraged. They recognize the need to work together and organize a joint front to succeed in defeating the old guards. That still hasn't materialized. To make that happen,
1) Protesters must separate themselves from infiltrators. Pick a location other than Martyr's square to gather. I suggest the Karantina area. Demonstrate under a clear banner of "all of them means all of them" #كلن_يعني_كلن
2) There are many new groups preparing for elections. Form a coalition and distribute your candidates to maximize your gain. Be ready for the current government to call a snap election according to the same electoral law.
3) Leave disarming Hezbollah out of your campaign. That will alienate half the population. Prioritize justice for the victims of the #BeirutBlast, ending political #sectarianism, and economic recovery.
4) Keep equidistant relations from all actors. The determining factor in establishing international links should be the improvement of the livelihood of all Lebanese communities.
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