Thread by @gpagoulatos

Thread on 🇹🇷&🇬🇷 standoff in East Med. Early Aug 🇹🇷 sent seismic vessel & warships for gas research on continental shelf claimed by both, 🇹🇷 seeking create fait accompli. This is clear violation international law. 🇬🇷sent warships to prevent this. None wants conflict but big risk.1

#Erdogan wants to revise status quo, incl. the 1923 Lausanne Treaty which defined the borders of the #Turkish Republic. Revisionism is dangerous, that’s what wars are made of. Militaristic rhetoric is not helping either. 2 bit.ly/3hHosmh

🇪🇺wants partnership with 🇹🇷, important for security, energy & migration. But EU🇪🇺 mainly owes solidarity to members 🇬🇷&🇨🇾 when facing external threat. Many carrots on table but without some sticks 🇪🇺 cannot be credible. 🇪🇺 on Friday listed sanctions if 🇹🇷 continues escalation. 3

There is political case to be made.🇬🇷 is a west liberal democracy, moderate govnt & opposition. #Erdogan has become illiberal ruler pressured by nationalistic opposition. 🇹🇷has troops in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, seeks to become global power and leader of #Sunni Muslim world 4

Erdogan has not been loyal partner to #NATO either. Defied NATO by purchasing S-400 from RUS. Welcomed Hamas leaders considered terrorists by 🇺🇸&🇪🇺. #Macron has a point in wanting contain 🇹🇷expansion in Med. 🇫🇷policy of containment shld be combined with🇩🇪logic of engagement. 5

🇪🇺must build principled partnership with 🇹🇷 now that accession not credible. Modernizing Customs Union which #Erdogan is keen on, is significant incentive. That must be conditional on 🇹🇷 respecting intl rule of law, existing borders, good neighbor relations with 🇪🇺member states.6

No denial 🇹🇷 is important trade partner for 🇪🇺 bit.ly/32BZPRT 3rd export market for🇬🇷. Large mutual benefits to be reaped by both 🇪🇺&🇹🇷. Think of Aegean as sea of peace, economic exchange & sustainable development. Tourism & cooperation between 🇬🇷&🇹🇷 can thrive. 7

For that 🇹🇷&🇬🇷Greece must sit around the table & agree to delimit maritime boundaries. Without delimitation none can exploit resources under & above sea bed! If they do not agree they should refer dispute to International Court in the Hague. 8

But 🇹🇷 denies exclusive economic zone #EEZ even to large islands. This goes against UN Convention Law of the Sea -#UNCLOS, which TUR refuses to sign. 9

#Greece is willing to initiate talks. But obviously not under threat. #Erdogan must recall seismic vessel & warships. Will he? Reason says yes. But risks are big. Silly chicken game from which all sides are losing can become huge win-win if differences are mutually resolved. 9